Lux Research’s latest Solar State of the Market report, “Finding the Solar Market’s Nadir” has gone live. The report describes how, as we noted previously on this blog, the solar market has moved into oversupply, and examines the path forward by finding the near-term bottom for volumes and pricing, while giving a timeline for recovery and identifying long-term survivors from the ranks of both technologies and companies. See the description below and our press release for more details.
In 2009 the solar market will move from supply limited to demand limited, shrinking from $36 billion over 5.5 GW in 2008 to $29 billion over 5.3 GW in 2009. Cell and module capacity will overshoot demand by twofold in 2009 to 10.4 GW, precipitating a shakeout that will eliminate all but the top players. However, price reductions will push solar to grid parity, enabling it to grow to $70 billion across 18.5 GW in 2013.
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