Billion-dollar bio-based chemicals IPO window is open, as Solazyme IPOs and Myriant files

Solazyme’s much-anticipated initial public offering (IPO) finally happened last Friday, selling about 11 million shares at $18 – raising $198 million in total, twice what it expected when it filed (see the March 29, 2011 LRMCJ – client registration required). Today the stock is trading up 20% at about $22, for a valuation of $1.3 billion.

While that dwarfs Gevo (trading at 30% above its IPO price, valuation at $475 million), it’s comparable to Amyris (trading at twice its IPO price, valuation at $1.3 billion). All of this bodes well for the next bio-based chemicals IPO, Myriant, which which announced its filing last week and is looking to raise $125 million. Myriant recently took in $60 million from PTT Chemicals and started constructing a plant in Louisiana, due to open in 2013 (see the  January 13, 2011 LRMCJ and the January 27, 2011 LRMCJ – client registration required). Among the notable data in the filing is a memorandum with China National BlueStar Group for a “jointly-owned, 220-million-pound biosuccinic acid plant in Nanjing, China, and an agreement for the exclusive supply of biosuccinic acid to BlueStar.”

We’ve noted the importance of startups’ “social network” of partnerships (see the report “Green Materials’ Social Networks”), and clients might rightly compare the soaring valuations of bio-based fuels and chemicals with the increasingly frenzied valuations of actual social networking companies of LinkedIn (post-IPO valuation of $7.3 billion), Skype (bought by Microsoft for $8.5 billion), and Facebook (valued at $50 billion in its last round of fundraising). There is undeniable hype driving both fields today, and investors should take a cautious stance based on the companies’ partnerships, plants, and future plans. While bio-based chemical and fuel companies have long-term contracts and hard assets that social networking sites don’t, the real long-term driver of their success will be the difference between their feedstock and manufacturing costs and oil prices; the former are declining predictably with scale and the latter looks to rise for some time to come.

Solazyme files for IPO

As we mentioned in an earlier post, Solazyme recently filed for an initial public offering (IPO) targeting $100 million. This wasn’t a surprise: Just as we had seen Amyris form multiple strong partnerships in the months leading up to its IPO (see the July 6, 2010 LRBJ*), Solazyme’s been revving up its own stable of new partnerships. It’s been forging partnerships in fuels and chemicals more intensely in recent months than it has throughout its lifetime. Since September, the company has inked deals with Bunge, Unilever, and Roquette (see the September 14, 2010 LRBJ* and the November 9, 2010 LRBJ*) on top of existing relationships with companies like Chevron, Honeywell, Abengoa, and Virgin (see the August 17, 2010 LRBJ*), and a joint development agreement with Dow announced last week.

Some highlights from the company’s S-1 include the company’s claims that it has already achieved “attractive margins when utilizing partner and contract manufacturing for the nutrition and skin and personal care markets,” and that it believes it can undercut fuels “when we commence production in larger-scale, built-for-purpose commercial manufacturing facilities utilizing sugarcane feedstock,” citing oils at a cost below $1,000 per metric ton, $3.44 per gallon, or $0.91 per liter.

Solazyme also notes that its Roquette JV will fund an approximately 50,000 metric-ton-per-year facility for nutrition products, which would be the first serious challenge to DSM-owned Martek (see the January 13, 2011 LRMCJ*). The company also mentioned a deal with Colombia’s national oil company (NOC), Ecopetrol, and a Brazilian letter of intent to form a JV that would add capacity of 400,000 metric tons of oil per year – nearly a thousandfold increase over the 455 metric tons the company produced in 2010.

But for all its strengths, Solazyme still lost $16 million last year on $39 million in revenue. By comparison, Amyris brought in $65 million in 2009, the year before its IPO.

While there are always reasons to be cautious when a loss-making company files for an IPO, one of the biggest challenges Solazyme will face is the public market’s mistaken association of its technology with older technologies like corn ethanol or dodgy algae developers. Solazyme is indeed an algae company. But it is wholly different from certain competitors, whose reliance on hype rather than commercially viable technologies poison the pond (pun intended) for legitimate players like Solazyme, Phycal, and Algenol (see the November 13, 2010 LRBJ*, the August 17, 2010 LRBJ*, and the March 10, 2009 LRBJ*). Gevo and Amyris represent better comparisons for Solazyme, and both had relatively successful IPOs (see the October 12, 2010 LRBJ* and the February 10, 2011 LRMCJ*). 

* Client registration required.

Biofuels: Synthetic biology leads in investment dollars, but will it deliver?

Biofuels: Synthetic biology leads in investment dollars, but will it deliver?Although synthetic biology companies trail other biofuel firms in terms of commercialization and scale, their flashy claims of spinning custom-built microbes into complex chemicals and drop-in fuels have captured the attention and dollars of investors. Last year, we saw LS9 and Solazyme, among others, secure large funding rounds. Additionally, Amyris Biotechnologies successfully launched the market segment’s first IPO. Gevo followed suit with a February IPO, in which it raised $107 million. And, just last week, Solazyme filed its own plans for public launch, with aims to raise $100 million.

As our Lux Innovative Grid for synbio indicates, many competitors land in the Undistinguished and Long-shot quadrants – although plenty of potential contenders join Amyris, Gevo and Solazyme in the Dominant quadrant.

In addition to its spot in the Dominant quadrant here, relative newcomer BioAmber occupies a similar position in our Grid for the Fermentation segment of biofuels. While it’s focused on the production of succinic acid – a flavoring agent, plasticizer, and coating, among other things – the firm’s genetic modification technology also applies to the fermentation of adipic acid, which was the focus of a recently signed licensing agreement. Its position in the Dominant quadrant here stems from a high business execution score due, in part, to strong partnerships with Mitsui, Samsung Ventures, and Greenfield Ethanol.

Metabolix and LS9, both of which modify microbes to convert sugar to fuels and chemicals, round out the Dominant quadrant. Metabolix’s main efforts are through a joint venture with ADM to produce polyhydroxyalkanoate (PHA), which is at commercial scale today. Its PHA is used for agricultural mulch film, a polypropylene replacement in consumer products applications, and for packaging applications. LS9’s strong partner list and technology to produce alkanes in single-celled organisms (see the August 3, 2010 LRBJ – client registration required) positions the company among the leaders in the group.

Source: Lux Research report “Today’s Top Technologies in Bioplastics and Biofuels.”