Although the solar industry entered this with strong momentum, the second half of 2010 looks more like 2009 as solar module-makers once again face price steep declines and tighter competition. This week’s graphic comes from recent Lux Research report that applies our proprietary Lux Innovation Grid to help identify likely winners in several solar module categories.
More specifically, the graphic focuses on manufacturers of copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS) modules, which potentially combine high efficiency with the low costs of thin-film modules. However, CIGS is a tricky material to work with and, as a result, only a handful of modules have made it to market to date.
At long last, however, a few CIGS players have broken from the pack and crossed into the Grid’s “dominant category.” At the top of the list is Q-Cells subsidiary Solibro, whose technical score is buoyed by new modules that deliver some of the highest CIGS efficiencies, peaking at 11%. The company also scores highly for business execution after ramping up commercial-scale production from less than 15 MW in 2009 to more than 50 MW today. With financial backing from Q-Cells, Solibro could conceivably expand capacity to more than 150 MW in 2011.
Not far behind it are Miasolé, Solar Frontier and Avencis. After a number of false starts and over $300 million of investment, Miasole has finally expanded production capacity to more than 80 MW with average efficiencies of 10.5%. It also receives a high technical score due to the industry-leading efficiencies of its roll-to-roll manufacturing process. Solar Frontier aggressively pledged $1.7 billion into ramping production capacity to 1 GW by 2012, which helps separate it from the pack in terms of business execution. But it lags behind Solibro on technical value due to a more complicated (i.e. costly) manufacturing process.
Solyndra scores highly in business execution thanks to the sheer amount of cash it’s amassed. But its technical value flags far lower than many competitors due to a poor cost structure based on high capital costs and low manufacturing yields. It has also failed to boost average module efficiency beyond 9%.
Source: Lux Research report “Sorting Solar Module and Inverter Manufacturers on the Lux Innovation Grid.”
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