The boom in bio-based materials and chemicals is really a boom in synthetic biology

Venture capitalists (VCs) invested $3.1 billion in bio-based chemicals and materials developers since 2004. As many of those start-ups reach megaton scales and launch IPOs, Lux Research analysts sought to find which technologies venture investors favored. This week’s graphic comes from their just published report (client registration required), in which analysts tracked 177 venture transactions involving 79 companies operating in five technology categories – biocomposites, bioprocessing, thermochemical processes, crop modification, and algae. In short, they found:

Bioprocessing developers brewed up $1.89 billion in 96 deals. Bioprocessing developers – especially synthetic biology companies – landed more than half the total venture capital invested since 2004. Encompassing technologies like fermentation, phage display, natural breeding and synthetic biology, all bioprocessing platforms employ some sort of organism as a “factory” for creating products as diverse as sweeteners and catalyst supports. Intrinsically flexible, these platforms enable the likes of Amyris, Codexis, LS9, and Solazyme to produce multiple products from multiple feedstocks, thus ensuring a relatively low-cost route to high-value compounds and providing a hedge against feedstock and product price volatility.

Thermochemical technologies raked in $577.0 million in 31 deals. Thermochemical processing encompasses technologies like gasification (Enerkem), catalysis (Avantium, Inventure), and acid hydrolysis (HCL Cleantech, BlueFire) that sometimes convert biomass to an intermediate like sugars or syngas, and sometimes go all the way to an end product. (e.g. Virent’s paraxylene is used in Pepsi’s famed 100% bio-based PET bottle

Crop modification companies harvested $371.7 million in 28 deals. IPOs are less common fates for crop modification companies which, as you may have guessed, modify crops to be more amenable and economical for use in bio-based materials and chemicals. Instead, companies in this category, like Athenix and FuturaGene, usually end up being acquired by the likes of Syngenta, Monsanto, DowAgro, or Bayer CropScience.

Algae developers saw $190.5 million in 13 deals. Notably, that figure only encompasses start-ups developing algae strains, cultivation systems, and processing equipment for creating industrial chemicals. Representative developers include Bio Architecture Lab, a macroalgae developer, and Israel’s Rosetta Green, which had raised $1.5 million in venture funds, but more recently brought in almost $6 million in an IPO on the Tel Aviv TASE. Excluded from this category are companies primarily developing fuels (which we cover in our Alternative Fuels Intelligence service), and companies like Solazyme and Green Pacific Biologicals that use algae for fermentation (and, thus, are categorized in bioprocessing, above).

Biocomposites developers brought in $108.9 million in a mere nine transactions. This category includes bioplastic blends, some starch plastics, and bio-based foams, from the likes of Cereplast, EcoSynthetix, Ecovative Design, and Entropy Resins. Because of the relatively simple nature of these technologies, VCs often don’t see them as investment opportunities – forcing companies like SoyWorks and Biop Biopolymer to find other sources of funding.

Source: Lux Research report “Seeding Investment in the Next Crop of Bio-Based Materials and Chemicals.”

EPA’s 2011 blending mandates signal a wake-up call for cellulosic biofuels

Earlier this week, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced its proposed RFS2 renewable fuel blending mandates for 2011, a surprisingly pragmatic piece of regulatory action. The RFS2 is an expanded version of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS1) program modified by the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007, and it requires the EPA to set renewable fuel standards each November for the following year. 

While there is generally good news for biodiesel, the RFS2 is a veritable reality check for cellulosic biofuels cheerleaders.

Here are the blending mandates the recent regulatory action proposes: for cellulosic biofuel (0.015%), biomass-based diesel (0.68%), advanced biofuel (0.77%), and total renewable fuels (7.95%). All proposed mandates apply to any gasoline and diesel produced or imported in year 2011. In setting these targets, the EPA reaffirmed the scheduled advanced biofuels mandate of 1.35 billion gallons, as well as the 800-million-gallon blending mandate for biodiesel.

However, for the second year in a row, it had to dramatically slash the cellulosic biofuel mandate from RFS1 targets, this time from 250 million gallons to a 6-million-gallon to 25-million-gallon range. As a result, and because the EPA didn’t slash the overall mandate, blenders will now have to look elsewhere for 124 million to 144 million gallons of qualifying advanced biofuels to make up the portion of the advanced biofuels mandate not met by the cellulosic biofuel or biodiesel targets. Options include importing sugarcane ethanol, finding additional biofuel production, or buying appropriate Renewable Identification Number (RINs) credits to make up the difference. Clients should monitor companies like Dynamic Fuels (a joint-venture of Tyson Foods and Syntroleum Corporation), LS9, and INEOS to see if they can step up to the plate and provide this additional capacity.

The reception to this regulatory action has been mixed. While organizations like the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) took offense with the downward correction of the cellulosic biofuel mandate, seeing in it the potential to further hamper investment, others thought the EPA was optimistic to anticipate 25 million gallons of cellulosic biofuel supply. However, everyone agrees that the EPA didn’t really have a choice but to stay true to market realities.

In determining the applicable standards, it is required by law to conduct an in-depth evaluation of how much qualifying biofuel can be made available in the following year. If the projected available volume is less than the required volume specified in the statute, it must lower the required volume to match the projected amount. In short, the EPA must match its mandates to available production capacity.

Cellulosic biofuels were done in by the sluggish pace of commercialization of developers like Range Fuels, Gevo, Iogen, Enerkem, and others who have all frequently missed milestones for maturity and commercial penetration. If the latest projections are to be believed, this capacity picture is unlikely to alter significantly for the next three years to four years, in which time competing technologies could blaze critical inroads into the market and make the outlook for cellulosic biofuels even more bleak. This news should come as a definite cause for concern for investors in and champions of cellulosic biofuels, whose only respite might be new loan guarantee programs from the U.S. Departments of Energy and Agriculture that are specifically engineered for cellulosic biofuels.

Meanwhile, as cellulosic biofuels grapple with this sobering reality, there are positives in the overall story for advanced biofuels in general. The EPA believes the overall mandate of 1.35 billion gallons of advanced biofuels in 2011 is enforceable, and we certainly agree. What is bad news for cellulosic biofuels might be good news for developers of other types of technology options like biodiesel or renewable diesel. Clients active in this domain should engage companies like Amyris, Solazyme, or Benefuel.