Tag Archives: General Motors

Ranking Li-ion battery developers on the Lux Innovation Grid

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Li-ion batteries are the technology of choice for the first generation of all-electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and the subsequent hype has attracted an increasing number of competitors to an already crowded market. Soon, it will be impossible for all of these companies to survive, making strong partnerships a necessity. This week’s graphic illustrates how developers of Li-ion batteries compare on the Lux Innovation Grid, helping to identify which will make the strongest potential partners as the electric vehicle market matures.

LG Chem Power clearly leads the pack, standing out even amidst its competition in the graphic’s Dominant Quadrant. A subsidiary of LG Chemical, LG Chem owes its strong technical value to its high-energy lithium-manganese-spinel-based cells and strong cycle life, both of which come at costs that are among the most competitive in the market. Its multitude of supply partnerships with the likes of GM, Eaton, and Ford, however, justify the company’s strong business execution score.

Significant enhancements in specific energy and a commensurate reduction in cell costhas garnered Envia Systems the attention of major investors including GM, Asahi Glass, and Asahi Kasei. Yet serious competition remains for Envia in cathode materials, including two major corporations in BASF and Toda Kogyo licensing the same Argonne National Laboratory technology that Envia’s materials are based on.

China is home to a number of top contenders, thanks to the Chinese government’s desire to keep the electric vehicle value chain inside China’s borders (Client registration required.). But batteries from China BAK, BYD, and China Aviation Lithium Battery (CALB) are undifferentiated technologically, and may not share the quality of cells manufactured outside of China.

Source: Lux Research report “Using Partnerships to Stay Afloat in the Electric Vehicle Storm.”

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BMW pushes the envelope

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BMW generated a good deal of industry buzz when it recently unveiled its futuristic i-Series concept cars: the i3, a battery electric vehicle (BEV), and the i8, a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV). Both cars seat four passengers, but the i3 is designed for city driving, while the i8 is more of a high-performance luxury vehicle. The vehicles are constructed largely of carbon-fiber-reinforced plastic (CFRP), which is incorporated into BMW’s “LifeDrive” design system. The i3 is expected to launch in 2013, with the i8 coming the following year.

This move is not BMW’s first foray into the electric vehicle market – the company has already produced over 1,000 ActiveE and 600 Mini E electric vehicles – but it is by far a larger and more significant project. BMW plans to invest around €400 million in the production of the i3 by 2013, focusing on a production plant in Leipzig, Germany. Electric drivetrain developer AC Propulsion has been supplying BMW with Li-ion batteries and drivetrains for the Mini E line, which is seen as a precursor to the i3. Still, no official announcement has been made regarding the Li-ion supplier for either model.

The degree to which BMW becomes more involved in Li-ion batteries will be a key indicator of the potential for more traditional supply relationships in the growing EV market, where automakers have increasingly integrated battery technologies with the aim of capturing maximum value in the supply chain. If BMW goes the route of Ford, which sources drivetrains from Manga for its Ford Focus Electric, it could provide hope to suppliers left out in the cold by automakers like GM that source batteries and conduct drivetrain integration themselves. Furthermore, BMW can lessen the risk it faces in the event that the market for all-electric vehicles does not take off. (See the report, “Small Batteries, Big Sales: The Unlikely Winners in the Electric Vehicle Market.”)*

BMW has prepared itself for the massive amount of CFRP required for this bold undertaking. Back in 2009, BMW formed a €90 million joint venture with SGL Group in Washington state (U.S.) for the production of CFRP. SGL has also recently completed construction of an additional carbon-fiber plant in Germany.* SGL currently has an annual production capacity of roughly 8,500 metric tons of carbon fiber. Automakers are always looking at light-weighting to reduce fuel consumption. In this case, the reduction of weight also saves money by allowing BMW to use smaller battery packs than would be required by heavier vehicles.

There are a number of other forward-thinking initiatives being launched by BMW as part of its campaign, but the carbon fiber chassis may make or break the i-Series. There have been significant barriers in the adoption of composites in the automotive industry (See the report “Chasing Cars: Can Composites Catch Up to Steel?.”). But if BMW’s launch is successful it could prove the economic feasibility of incorporating CFRP into production automobiles, ushering in a new era of automobile manufacturing.

* Client registration required.

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Global market forecast for electrical storage technologies in transportation applications

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Graphic of the WeekThe overall market for energy storage technologies that power electric vehicles is set to grow from $13 billion in 2011 to $30 billion in 2016, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18%. But, while prominent plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) like the Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf grab most of the headlines, a recently released report (client registration required) from Lux Research finds that electrical storage for e-bikes and micro-hybrids will command the largest market share in terms of both GWh and dollars in 2016.

Specifically, the report finds that E-bikes carry minimal storage but compensate with sheer volume. Replacement batteries for the currently deployed base – largely in China – plus strong growth in new sales will drive growth from 84.2 GWh and $12.0 billion in 2011, to 156.6 GWh and $24.3 billion in 2016, a CAGR of 13% in kWh and 15% in dollars.

Micro-hybrids apply energy storage only toward start-stop and/or regenerative braking applications, and require neither the drastic redesigns nor the more expensive battery costs that all-electric or hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) do. Thus, they represent a shorter path to reduced emissions than hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) or PHEVs, and will drive market growth from 5.1 GWh and $495 million in 2011, to 41 GWh and $3.1 billion in 2016 – CAGRs of 52% and 44%, respectively.

Meanwhile, EVs, HEVs, PHEVs will see steady if not explosive growth. But their hefty battery packs will command a meaningful share of the markets for storage in GWh and particularly in dollar sales (the latter due to the higher cost of NiMH and Li-ion batteries. Sales will reach a cumulative 5.7 GWh in 2016, up 27% annually from 1.7 GWh in 2011, and revenues will expand 25% annually from $710 million in 2011 to hit $2.1 billion in 2016.

Source: Lux Research report “Small Batteries, Big Sales: The Unlikely Winners in the Electric Vehicle Market.”

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GM’s attractive leasing terms for the Volt won’t be enough

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General Motors (GM) recently made its long-awaited announcement about the pricing of its messianic plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV). While the Volt will cost $41,000 in the U.S. – or $33,500 after a $7,500 federal income tax credit, the real news is that GM is offering a very attractive three-year lease for the Volt of $350/month with $2,500 due at signing. For comparison, Nissan announced that its all-electric vehicle (EV), the Nissan Leaf, will lease for $349/month for three years after an initial payment of $1,999. This, despite the fact that the Leaf’s sticker price is more than $8,000 lower than the Volt’s (see the April 7, 2010 LRPJ – client registration required). GM also recently announced that it will “increase U.S. production capacity of the [Volt] by 50 percent, from 30,000 units to 45,000 units, in 2012,” although production for the 2011 model year will be limited to about 10,000 units for its November 2010 rollout.

So is GM’s optimism misplaced? Edward Niedermeyer points out in a New York Times editorial – entitled “GM’s Electric Lemon” – that the Volt requires “premium gasoline, seats only four people (the battery runs down the center of the car, preventing a rear bench) and has less head and leg room than the $17,000 Chevrolet Cruze.”

However, the Volt’s primary competitor is not the Cruze, but the Nissan Leaf. Leasing terms are key here because, with lots of uncertainty around any new technology (the cycle life of the Li-ion batteries causes particular concern), many customers would prefer to lease than to buy. Since the Volt and the Leaf will be priced comparably and have similar warranties, the Nissan Leaf’s all-electric status will likely tip the scales in its favor among the eco-conscious minds of the early adopters. Moreover, Nissan has the advantage in that its lower sticker price will make it easier to convince lessees to buy the vehicles after three years, while GM risks having to take back heavily-devalued Volts. In addition to these unfavorable comparisons, the global electric vehicle market is likely to disappoint the overinflated expectation that the Volt will help salvage GM’s fortunes (see the Lux Research report, “Unplugging the Hype around Electric Vehicles” – client registration required). Unfortunately for the U.S. taxpayers who have billions of dollars riding on GM’s success, all signs point to another disappointment for the automotive giant.

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Toyota takes a shortcut into the EV market with Tesla partnership

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Recently, the auto industry has been abuzz over the partnership formed between Toyota and Tesla Motors to develop a passenger all-electric vehicle (EV) for less than $30,000. Additionally, Toyota has committed to purchasing $50 million worth of common stock immediately following the closure of Tesla’s IPO, on the condition that Tesla completes the IPO by December 31, 2010. The unnamed vehicle will consist of Tesla’s powertrain technology, with the rest of the car comprising traditional Toyota hardware and design. This move is a change in course for Toyota, since the automaker has stated in the past that it is unsure of the market potential for EVs, citing that the cost of the battery packs make the vehicles economically unfavorable. It’s possible Toyota feels its title as the greenest car company is being usurped by Nissan Motor with the early sales and hype of its EV, the Leaf. With the Mitsubishi Motors i-MiEV planned for pricing above $30,000, it is likely that the early EV market in the United States, such as it is (see the report “Unplugging the Hype around Electric Vehicles” – client registration required) will be dominated by Nissan and Toyota, as they will have the cheapest EVs on the market for the foreseeable future.

This transaction with Tesla provides a fast, low-cost, low-risk option for Toyota to enter the EV market. For the small price tag of $50 million, Toyota can lean on Tesla’s experience and avoid much of the R&D expense of developing an EV on its own. This is a bargain for Toyota, considering that General Motors advertised that it spent upwards of $1 billion developing the Volt. In exchange, Tesla is receiving validation from the Toyota name, along with the manufacturing and marketing support that Toyota is likely to provide. Perhaps most valuable to Tesla, the jointly developed vehicle will most likely be sold through Toyota dealerships, allowing it significantly greater penetration into the market. Meanwhile, Panasonic, which provides batteries both for Tesla and for Toyota’s Prius (see the October 21, 2009 LRPJ – client registration required), will strengthen its position in the vehicle battery market. The announcement is a clear win for all three parties involved. However, this news by no means implies that the Toyota EV will sell, since like all EVs it still faces many economic and behavioral hurdles to mass adoption (see the February 3, 2010 LRPJ – client registration required).

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