Tag Archives: Hyundai Heavy Industries

High-efficiency x-Si module technologies warming up to take 24% of the market in 2015

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Rising competition, diminishing subsidies and falling costs for silicon have put increasing pressure on manufacturers of crystalline silicon (x-Si) cells and modules to develop higher efficiency solar panels. Because higher efficiency panels produce more power, they reduce the cost of commodity materials – such as glass, aluminum and copper – on a perwatt ($/W) basis. Lux analysts found that a 1% improvement in absolute efficiency contributes to $0.05 to $0.08 savings per peak watt.

This week’s Graphic illustrates how Lux analysts expect four emerging technologies – back side junction, HIT (heterojunction with intrinsic thin layer), wrap through emitter, or selective emitter – will ramp up as manufacturers upgrade to higher efficiency cells. Among the highlights of their analysis:

  • Selective emitter (SE) technologies are poised for growth. Extensive academic research has established that SE can boost efficiencies for both monocrystalline and multicrystalline cell technologies, giving it a clear lead among cell manufacturers. Also, based on announcements from tier 1 cell and module manufacturers and the time associated with ramping new technologies, Lux analysts anticipate SE technologies will account for about 15% of the standard x-Si market in 2015.
  • Back side junction and HIT technologies will remain specialized technologies. While some companies such as Hyundai Heavy Industries are attempting to combine back side + HIT technologies, Lux analysts do not see many more companies pursuing these as their first choices due to higher associated processing costs, and the unavailability of turnkey off-the-shelf equipment to commercialize these solutions.

Source: Lux Research report “Traversing the Road to Higher Crystalline Silicon Efficiencies: Who Stands to Change the Game, and How it Will Play Out.”

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Rating x-Si module makers on the Lux Innovation Grid

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lig-c-siCrystalline silicon (x-Si) PV modules comprise the largest and most established portion of the photovoltaic (PV) module market, holding roughly 81% of the global PV market in 2008. These x-Si modules also have significant penetration in all sizes of grid-tied applications – from residential to large-scale utility installations.

A handful of large, top-tier manufacturers dominate the market, but smaller start-ups with differentiated technologies are still entering. As the module oversupply rolls through 2009 and 2010, some crystalline silicon module manufacturers will be at the heart of the shakeout.

Examining the performance of companies in this technology area, we find that:

  • Large corporations with differentiated technologies are among the strongest performers.Many of the highest ranking companies are large corporations that stand out due to top-level high-efficiency products and large corporate backing. Their backing provides support for module warranties, capacity expansions, pricing battles, and technology development.
  • New competition from low-cost manufacturers is driving down the value of European leaders. European module manufacturers with high-quality x-Si module technologies are beginning to struggle as module production becomes increasingly commoditized. Their quality advantage is beginning to slide as new low-cost manufacturers gain access to higher-quality materials, dropping their scores on technical value scale.
  • Even with promising technologies, start-ups face formidable barriers to growth. The most successful pure-play solar firms got an early start in the market, and offer either differentiated technologies, sharp business execution, or both. New entrants to the solar market need more than a novel design or slight technical advantage to succeed. Companies building capacity, especially those based on a novel technology, score lower than those with existing capacity because they must play catch-up with more traditional and established manufacturers. The outlook is increasingly bleak for start-ups with unique technologies that are yet to build production capacity.
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