Posts Tagged ‘MEMC’
Friday, July 16th, 2010
Last month, we released the Q1 2010 version of the Lux Research Solar Supply Tracker (see Solar Supply Tracker, Q1 2010 – client registration required). It includes figures on production and capacity data throughout the value chain through 2013.
Notably, the Tracker revealed that total module production for 2010 will be 12.6 GW, an increase of about 4.7 GW from 2009 production. We’ve also updated the Lux Research demand forecast, which predicts 12.1 GW of market demand in 2010, signifying a slight oversupply this year.
Crystalline silicon (x-Si) will account for 76% of total new module production in 2010. Most of the remaining share will be split between inorganic thin-film PV – particularly thin-film silicon (TF-Si) fueled by a slew of entrants – and cadmium telluride (CdTe), overwhelmingly provided by First Solar. Each will each account for 11% of 2010 module production. Companies like Avancis, Würth Solar, and Solibro will each produce a handful of Copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS) modules in 2010, to round out the balance of new module production.
In terms of geography, Asia continues to dominate the manufacturing scene, accounting for 45% of polysilicon production, 78% of wafer production, and 71% of module production in 2010. Though Asia dominates in absolute production, several companies are adding capacity in North America, hoping to capitalize on promising demand in the U.S. and Canada, including Canadian Solar, SunPower, and Yingli.
A number of companies made notable changes to production and plans in Q1. Upgraded metallurgical silicon (UMG-Si) producers Dow Corning and Timminco stopped production at their Brazilian and Canadian facilities, respectively. Both companies cited decreased market demand, and will leave capacity idle with plans to reevaluate demand in a few years.
While UMG-Si players are hurting, top-tier polysilicon suppliers are thriving. The top six polysilicon producers – Hemlock, Wacker, GCL, OCI, REC, and MEMC – will supply 75% of the total polysilicon to the market in 2010. Further downstream, several companies beat expectations and are accelerating ramp schedules. Taiwanese wafer player Green Energy Technology, cellmaker Neo Solar Power, and Chinese module manufacturer Solarfun all increased or accelerated capacity addition plans, citing increasing customer demand. Although Solarfun garnered more market share with its increasing capacity, it could not crack the top five module manufacturers. First Solar remained in the top spot, followed by Suntech Power, Sharp, Canadian Solar, and Trina Solar.
Looking out several years, supply remains slightly above demand throughout the value chain – except at polysilicon, where a significant supply overhang remains. As we witnessed this quarter, this supply overhang forced more expensive producers to shut down production lines, as their processes are no longer economically viable. Expect more consolidation and additional polysilicon players shutting down production facilities, as well as significant shuffling of market share as new technologies gain traction, the vertical integration trend continues, and delayed subsidy cuts in Europe keep demand high.
Tags: Avancis, Canadian Solar, Dow Corning, GCL Silicon, Green Energy Technology, Hemlock, MEMC, Neo Solar Power, OCI, REC Group, Sharp, Solarfun, Solibro, SunPower, Suntech Power, Timminco, Trina Solar, Wacker Polisilicon, Wurth Solar, Yingli
Posted in Solar |
Thursday, January 7th, 2010
Late last year, the Chinese government began taking more aggressive steps to shore up the financial position of key polysilicon producers, which had been struggling due to the price collapse of polysilicon during 2009. First, on November 17, LDK Solar announced that it had sold a 15% stake in its 15,000 MT polysilicon plant in Xinyu, China. The stake went to Jiangxi International Trust and Investment, an investment arm of the provincial government, for RMB 1.5 billion ($219 million) – valuing just the polysilicon plant at $1.46 billion.
Then, two days later, GCL Silicon announced that it had sold 20% of the company to China Investment Corporation – a state-sponsored investment vehicle – through the issuance of new shares to raise about $715 million. Additionally, GCL secured investment for a joint venture company to develop solar projects, with a total investment of $500 million. The latter move resembled those of MEMC, SunPower and others who have sought to integrate downstream to ensure demand (see the October 29, 2009 LRSJ – client registration required).
These two investments are notable in that they show more drastic action by government agencies to shore up favored polysilicon manufacturers. Chinese import restrictions on polysilicon helped to buoy the price of the material just a few months ago (see the August 20, 2009 LRSJ – client registration required) – but apparently not enough. The subsequent steps demonstrate the most overt case of government support to date.
Companies in the U.S. and Europe have long complained about the stealthy industrial subsidies received by Chinese firms, arguing that Chinese imports should be restricted on these grounds, and this case gives them the strongest ammunition yet to argue for protectionism predicated on unfair government subsidies. Expect the case for protectionism to continue to heat up as prices fall and European manufacturers struggle to cut costs to remain competitive.
Further, the new funds all but guarantee capacity ramp of these two major players, and this significant amount of capacity coming online over the next few years will further depress the prices of polysilicon, and make it difficult for smaller, independent players to exist. Indeed, increasingly, polysilicon makers can be divided into three groups: incumbents (such as MEMC, Hemlock, Wacker, and REC); state-sponsored firms (GCL, LDK, and Nitol); and those tied up with major device manufacturers (Fine Silicon, Asia Silicon, Joint Solar Silicon). Though a few exceptions, such as OCI and M.Setek, will likely weather the storm, it will be tough going for players without a corporate or government sponsor with deep pockets.
Tags: Asia Silicon, Fine Silicon, GCL Silicon, Hemlock Semiconductor, Joint Solar Silicon, LDK Solar, M.Setek, MEMC, Nitol, OCI, REC, SunPower, Wacker Polisilicon
Posted in Solar |
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