Posts Tagged ‘Panasonic’
Thursday, June 3rd, 2010
Recently, the auto industry has been abuzz over the partnership formed between Toyota and Tesla Motors to develop a passenger all-electric vehicle (EV) for less than $30,000. Additionally, Toyota has committed to purchasing $50 million worth of common stock immediately following the closure of Tesla’s IPO, on the condition that Tesla completes the IPO by December 31, 2010. The unnamed vehicle will consist of Tesla’s powertrain technology, with the rest of the car comprising traditional Toyota hardware and design. This move is a change in course for Toyota, since the automaker has stated in the past that it is unsure of the market potential for EVs, citing that the cost of the battery packs make the vehicles economically unfavorable. It’s possible Toyota feels its title as the greenest car company is being usurped by Nissan Motor with the early sales and hype of its EV, the Leaf. With the Mitsubishi Motors i-MiEV planned for pricing above $30,000, it is likely that the early EV market in the United States, such as it is (see the report “Unplugging the Hype around Electric Vehicles” – client registration required) will be dominated by Nissan and Toyota, as they will have the cheapest EVs on the market for the foreseeable future.
This transaction with Tesla provides a fast, low-cost, low-risk option for Toyota to enter the EV market. For the small price tag of $50 million, Toyota can lean on Tesla’s experience and avoid much of the R&D expense of developing an EV on its own. This is a bargain for Toyota, considering that General Motors advertised that it spent upwards of $1 billion developing the Volt. In exchange, Tesla is receiving validation from the Toyota name, along with the manufacturing and marketing support that Toyota is likely to provide. Perhaps most valuable to Tesla, the jointly developed vehicle will most likely be sold through Toyota dealerships, allowing it significantly greater penetration into the market. Meanwhile, Panasonic, which provides batteries both for Tesla and for Toyota’s Prius (see the October 21, 2009 LRPJ – client registration required), will strengthen its position in the vehicle battery market. The announcement is a clear win for all three parties involved. However, this news by no means implies that the Toyota EV will sell, since like all EVs it still faces many economic and behavioral hurdles to mass adoption (see the February 3, 2010 LRPJ – client registration required).
Tags: General Motors, Mitsubishi Motors, Nissan Motor, Panasonic, Tesla Motors, Toyota Motor Co.
Posted in Alternative Power |
Monday, April 12th, 2010
Nissan recently announced the U.S. pricing for its all-electric vehicle (EV), the Leaf: $32,780 before incentives, or $25,280 after a $7,500 federal tax credit. Notably, Nissan decided not to lease the battery separately, like Nissan Renault is doing with Better Place in Israel (see the August 5, 2009 LRPJ – client registration required). Instead, it will offer the entire vehicle including the battery for $349/month for 36 months after an initial payment of $1,999. In January, Nissan selected AeroVironment to provide chargers that will fully charge the Leaf’s 24 kWh pack in eight hours with a connection to a 220 V power line.
According to the Wall Street Journal, the Leaf will sell for ¥3.76 million ($40,700) in Japan, or ¥2.99 million ($31,600) after incentives. For comparison, the Toyota Prius hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) starts at $22,800 in the U.S. and about ¥2.05 million ($21,700) in Japan. One way to view this information is that the Leaf will be competitive with the Prius when it goes on sale in select markets in the U.S. in December. After the federal tax credit, the Leaf’s invoice price is less than $3,000 above the Prius’s; and in some states, prospective purchasers get additional state tax incentives (California, one of the most progressive states, offers $5,000).
However, apart from price, the Leaf faces additional challenges that the Prius does not. First, a director-level executive from a major California utility emphasized that before a would-be EV buyer takes possession of the vehicle he or she has just purchased, there is a 20-day to 60-day (more likely 60-day) waiting period to allow the utility and the city to ensure the grid can handle the additional load (see the February 3, 2010 LRPJ – client registration required). Second, unlike the Prius, EV owners have to overcome the range anxiety of owning a vehicle with a 100-mile range without the benefit of a widespread municipal charging infrastructure. Finally, while Nissan hasn’t released information on the Leaf’s cargo/passenger space, its hefty 24 kWh battery pack certainly will take up a lot more room than the 1.3 kWh pack of the Prius, even after accounting for the higher energy density of Li-ion compared to NiMH.
Even if the Leaf does sell successfully, some question remains whether or not Nissan will actually make money on its new EV? Our most current estimates have pack costs over $920/kWh today. That means the 24 kWh Leaf pack most likely costs over $22,000 today, which would imply that Nissan (or its battery partner NEC) is losing money on every vehicle Nissan sells for $32,780. While we see pack prices dropping to just over $700/kWh by 2015, even at these prices the Leaf packs will still account for over half of the total price of the vehicles. Unless Nissan and its battery partner NEC have unlocked the magic Li-ion formula that allows them to manufacture batteries at half the cost of their competitors, Nissan/NEC is almost certainly taking a loss on every Leaf it sells in the U.S., in order to encourage EV adoption and unseat Toyota/Panasonic as the greenest auto-making team. While this strategy might make Nissan the market leader in EVs and boost NEC’s battery sales, it may impose a big financial hit in the process if the EV market fails to develop quickly – as we have argued (see the report “Unplugging the Hype around Electric Vehicles“).
Tags: AeroVironment, Better Place, NEC, Nissan, Panasonic, Toyota
Posted in Alternative Power |
Friday, February 19th, 2010
According to a recent article in the Wall Street Journal (subscription required), Toyota Tsusho, a supplier to Toyota Motor (which also owns 21.8% of the company), has agreed to invest between $100 million and $120 million for a 25% stake in a lithium (Li) mining project operated in northern Argentina by the Australian-listed company, Orocobre. Toyota Tsusho will also pay for the completion of a feasibility study this year. To help finance the deal, Japan Oils, Gas, and Metals National, a state-owned Japanese corporation, is giving Toyota Tsusho low-cost loans in order to secure a steady supply of Li to Toyota Motor.
This kind of deal will help cement the dominance of Panasonic, Toyota’s partner for electric vehicle batteries. The companies have a JV called Panasonic Electric Vehicle Energy (PEVE). While only 27% of the world’s Li supply goes to batteries today, batteries are the fastest growing use for the alkali metal, and Japanese chemical companies like Mitsubishi Chemical and Sumitomo Chemical, as well as some Chinese buyers, are all interested in acquiring stakes in Li producers. However, while Chinese battery makers like BYD enjoy a significant domestic supply (according to the most recent U.S. Geological Survey, China was the third largest producer of Li in 2008), Japanese companies must move quickly to make sure their supply is not disrupted.
After Chile, Argentina is the largest South American source for the metal; and, unlike Bolivia, which has the greatest reserve base in the world, Argentina’s government is relatively stable. Considering that battery price is already the most significant factor in whether plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) and all-electric vehicles (EVs) will be successful (see the Lux Research report, “Unplugging the Hype around Electric Vehicles” – client registration required), expect more major automakers to work on securing access to Li, lest they find themselves at the mercy of fluctuating commodity prices. The wild card? Innovative companies like Simbol Mining might find a way to flood the market with low-cost Li, but unless and until they do, expect aggressive attempts to secure Li supply.
Tags: Panasonic, Simbol Mining, Toyota Motor Co.
Posted in Alternative Power |
Friday, January 29th, 2010
Panasonic finally inked its purchase of Sanyo last month. After plans for the takeover became public more than a year ago (see the November 5, 2008 LRPJ – client registration required), the deal was stalled by anti-monopoly regulatory concerns, which forced the pair to sell some nickel-metal hydride (NiMH) battery assets. With those concerns behind it, Panasonic will now be the dominant player in many markets, including large-format NiMH batteries (see the July 1, 2009 LRPJ – client registration required), battery packs for hybrid- and all-electric vehicles (via Panasonic’s JV with Toyota), and Li-ion batteries, where Sanyo and Panasonic were the largest and sixth largest manufacturers, respectively.
The deal means that automotive companies will have fewer options for mass-produced lithium-ion cells for electric vehicles, driving current customers of Panasonic and Sanyo to seek out other qualified battery suppliers – such as LG Chemical’s Compact Power, or Johnson Controls-Saft (JCS) – to maintain multiple sources.
At the same time, however, the acquisition bodes well for Panasonic’s ability to reduce cost in its Li-ion cells, as it can now greatly increase volume. Because of this, the merger of Panasonic and Sanyo will encourage other lithium-ion battery manufacturers to consolidate in order to share similar economies of scale. Clients should expect to see other major tie-ups in the near future as the lithium-ion shakeout comes to fruition (see the December 16, 2009 LRPJ – client registration required).
Further, the acquisition gives Panasonic a strong position in the solar industry, since it now controls Sanyo’s efficiency-leading “heterojunction with intrinsic thin layer” (HIT) cell technology. Sanyo ranks #15 in cell manufacturers by capacity as of Q3 2009 (see the Lux Solar Supply Tracker- client registration required), and its cells top even those of U.S.-based SunPower in the high efficiency segment. Further, Sanyo already has plans in place to aggressively ramp cell capacity to a total of 345 MW by the end of 2010, and to boost ingot and wafer capacity in Oregon, which will total 70 MW when fully ramped in April 2010. All told, the company plans to boost module capacity to a total of 600 MW by the end of this year.
Overall, that puts Panasonic in a very strong position to capitalize on the U.S. residential rooftop market, as well as the high-efficiency panel market in Japan, which is expected to grow in 2010 due to new subsidies. However, a number of competitors, such as Suntech and JA Solar, are making a push into the high-efficiency segment with competing technologies. Although these will likely prove more cost-competitive than Sanyo’s, they’re unlikely to top 20% efficiency. Further, we have recently heard of a Silicon Valley start-up targeting silicon inks for this “selective emitter” technology that is up for sale after exhausting funding; interested clients should contact lr.inquiry@luxresearchinc.com for more details.
Tags: Panasonic, Sanyo
Posted in Alternative Power, Solar |
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