OLEDs have found their market in smartphones, and electrophoretic displays have found theirs in e-readers. But in what other markets can these technologies compete? In a recent Lux Research report, analysts projected market share for each display technology in several prospective application markets. This week’s graphic focuses on projected growth through 2017 in the key application markets for OLEDs. In total, these markets add up to approximately $11 billion in 2017, up from $1.9 billion in 2011, a 34% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). In addition, analysts found:
- The already healthy market for OLED smartphones will continue to expand as the cost of small-area OLEDs decline. Samsung has grown market share with OLED enabled phones, and other smart phone developers such as Nokia, HTC, and Panasonic have or will soon follow suit. In total, over one-third of all smartphones in 2017 will have an OLED screen, corresponding to a $9.5 billion market in 2017 for OLED displays, representing a 32% CAGR over the 2011 market of $1.8 billion.
- Smartphone functions steal wind from other small area OLED applications. Other devices that could use a small-area OLED display – music players, handheld video games, picture frames, and digital cameras – will total an approximately $453 million OLED display market in 2017, growing 62% annually from the $25 million they accounted for in 2011. OLED growth will be slow because sales of these devices will either remain static or decline, partly because many smartphones offer the same functions.
- Industry dynamics limit tablet market. Apple’s iPad currently commands more than 75% of the tablet market. Yet Apple is unlikely to switch the iPad’s current LCD display to OLED technology before 2017, since that would grant some control of its supply chain to competitor Samsung. Also, although multimedia tablets can benefit from the display performance and light weight of OLEDs, the technology’s high cost compared to LCDs will create further headwinds. Overall, OLEDs will appear in 3% of the non-Apple tablets, reaching a $397 million market in 2017 – up from a market of less than $5 million in 2011.
- Market for televisions will be limited due to lifetime and cost issues. The picture quality of OLED TVs made a splash at the 2012 Consumer Electronics Show and other exhibitions. But widespread commercial adoption will be slow because, unlike LCDs, increasing the size of OLED displays significantly increases their cost. New materials, such as metal oxide TFTs, and processing equipment will improve but not reverse this reality over the next five years. There are no commercial TVs using OLEDs today, and in total, the 2017 market for OLED TVs will be $325 million.
Source: Lux Research report “Cutting Up the LCD Pie: Calculating the Billion-Dollar Slices from Display Innovation.”