Tag Archives: Solar Frontier

Lifetime will limit the potential for Belectric’s Konarka acquisition

Posted on by

Solar project developer Belectric (client registration required) has acquired the European operation of Konarka (client registration required), the bankrupt bulk heterojunction (BHJ) organic photovoltaic (OPV) developer (see the report “Looking for a Future in Organic Photovoltaics” — client registration required). The acquisition will be part of the Belectric’s new business called Belectric OPV, which plans to further develop the technology and focus on serving automotive and building-integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) applications (see the report “Building Integrated Photovoltaics: Moving Beyond Showcase Projects” — client registration required). Belectric plans to set up manufacturing capabilities using the technology in the next few months.

As part of the trend of developers like Hanergy (client registration required) moving upstream into module production, Belectric has been an aggressive pursuer of thin-film technologies – witness its work with First Solar (client registration required) and Solar Frontier. However, the performance metrics of Konarka’s OPV technology make it poorly suited for BIPV and automotive applications. Potential automotive and BIPV customers will have a hard time overlooking the high cost per watt and low efficiency of the technology in order to take advantage of OPV’s form factor, weight, and visual properties, like its diverse color offerings. However, customers in automotive and BIPV will be particularly wary of OPV’s lifetime, which does not even make it five years. Belectric needs to focus on its R&D efforts to improve the lifetime and also work with barrier film developers, as water and oxygen contamination are a leading failure mechanism. Unless the lifetime improves, the manufacturing facilities will not be producing much of anything, much as Konarka’s (client registration required) plant. However, the challenges and long timelines ahead mean Belectric should be wary of investing significant resources in it.

Share this
Facebook facebook   Twitter twitter   Email email   Linkedin linkedin  

Lux Q2 2010 Solar Supply Tracker: Growing demand stretches upstream supply

Posted on by

Last week, Lux Research released its Q2 2010 Solar Supply Tracker (client registration required), which updates our figures on production and capacity throughout the value chain through 2013. Regular readers of the Tracker will find the most important update since Q1 is in the recent version’s demand forecast, which has been increased to 15 GW of market demand in 2010, driven by a surge in Germany and Italy ahead of 2011 feed-in-tariff reductions. We discussed this following PVSEC in Valencia a few weeks ago (see the September 16, 2010 LRSJ – client registration required).

On the supply side, Tier 1 and 2 module manufacturers are poised to produce 14.8 GW in 2010. Figuring in Tier 3 players for the “high case” scenario shows a potential for 18.0 GW of production in 2010. However, even with this greater-than-expected demand, Tier 1 and 2 module manufacturers maintain oversupply with 20 GW of capacity.

In Q2, crystalline silicon (x-Si) increased its technology dominance, reaching 79% of module production. Thin-film silicon (TF-Si), led by large manufacturers like Sharp and Bosch, and cadmium telluride (CdTe), dominated by First Solar, each account for about 9% of total production. Together, these three technologies make up nearly the whole module market. Copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS) modules are still being produced in small quantities, but will quickly grow more than 1 GW if Solibro, Miasolé, and Solar Frontier execute plans for large capacity expansions over the next several quarters.

Geographically, Asia increased its dominance in module manufacturing, accounting for 75% of production in Q2 as more European capacity became unviable and low-cost Asian manufacturers like Trina, Yingli, and LDK added capacity in the downturn. On the polysilicon front, Wacker added European capacity, increasing the EU’s production share to 20% from 17% the previous quarter. However, Asia still holds the largest share at 43%.

A number of key market shifts occurred in Q2 throughout the value chain. Chinese polysilicon producers were a mixed bag as several low-cost manufacturers, including Jiangsu Shunda and Sichuan Xinguang, shut down for retooling or recapitalization while new entrants Yongxiang and Fine Silicon (owned by Yingli Green Energy) were still ramping production. Meanwhile, demand in 2010 will reach 100,000 MT and exceed the 75,000 MT production of the six top polysilicon producers – Hemlock, Wacker, GCL, OCI, REC, and MEMC – providing room for new entrants like Daqo New Energy. Further downstream, wafer supply is increasingly constrained in the face of strong demand and will hit 78% capacity utilization in Q3. Low-cost Asian manufacturers continue to dominate this segment, with GCL Silicon, Kyocera, and Green Energy Technology moving into the top 11. Strong demand has spurred several companies to make aggressive expansions in cell and module production. JA Solar led the charge in cell production, rising into the top 3 in Q2 and positioning itself to overtake the entire field by capacity in Q3. It has also integrated downstream into module production, along with China Sunergy, through acquisitions. Although these companies are emerging as new leaders, the top five module manufacturers remained unchanged from Q1, with the exception of Suntech Power, which overtook First Solar at the top spot in Q2 with 1.4 GW of capacity.

Share this
Facebook facebook   Twitter twitter   Email email   Linkedin linkedin  

Sorting CIGS solar module-makers on the Lux Innovation Grid

Posted on by

Graphic of the WeekAlthough the solar industry entered this with strong momentum, the second half of 2010 looks more like 2009 as solar module-makers once again face price steep declines and tighter competition. This week’s graphic comes from recent Lux Research report that applies our proprietary Lux Innovation Grid to help identify likely winners in several solar module categories.

More specifically, the graphic focuses on manufacturers of copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS) modules, which potentially combine high efficiency with the low costs of thin-film modules. However, CIGS is a tricky material to work with and, as a result, only a handful of modules have made it to market to date.

At long last, however, a few CIGS players have broken from the pack and crossed into the Grid’s “dominant category.” At the top of the list is Q-Cells subsidiary Solibro, whose technical score is buoyed by new modules that deliver some of the highest CIGS efficiencies, peaking at 11%. The company also scores highly for business execution after ramping up commercial-scale production from less than 15 MW in 2009 to more than 50 MW today. With financial backing from Q-Cells, Solibro could conceivably expand capacity to more than 150 MW in 2011.

Not far behind it are Miasolé, Solar Frontier and Avencis. After a number of false starts and over $300 million of investment, Miasole has finally expanded production capacity to more than 80 MW with average efficiencies of 10.5%. It also receives a high technical score due to the industry-leading efficiencies of its roll-to-roll manufacturing process. Solar Frontier aggressively pledged $1.7 billion into ramping production capacity to 1 GW by 2012, which helps separate it from the pack in terms of business execution. But it lags behind Solibro on technical value due to a more complicated (i.e. costly) manufacturing process.

Solyndra scores highly in business execution thanks to the sheer amount of cash it’s amassed. But its technical value flags far lower than many competitors due to a poor cost structure based on high capital costs and low manufacturing yields. It has also failed to boost average module efficiency beyond 9%.

Source: Lux Research report “Sorting Solar Module and Inverter Manufacturers on the Lux Innovation Grid.”

Share this
Facebook facebook   Twitter twitter   Email email   Linkedin linkedin