Solar Modules: Good enough is better than best for frontsheet materials

Graphic of the WeekIn a race to improve margins and expand market share, solar manufacturers are seeking to jettison all unnecessary costs from their photovoltaic (PV) modules. The most stubborn of these costs generally derive from non-active materials, such as frontsheets, encapsulants, and backsheets, which can contribute between 25% and 40% to overall module costs.

In a recent report, Lux Research surveyed the field of emerging non-active material technologies for flat plate PV modules in order to assess which have the most potential for adoption. This week’s graphic highlights the report’s take on alternative frontsheet technologies. In order to determine the break even cost of these materials – the cost at which a manufacturer maintains or increases its profitability – Lux Research calculated the relative impact on module efficiency they offer compared to rolled, patterned low‐iron glass, the incumbent material for crystalline silicon (x-Si) modules.

The graphic’s left side lists the relative efficiency impact for all the alternatives to rolled, patterned low-iron glass considered. Clearly, a number of fluoropolymer materials offer lower frontside reflectance and boost module efficiency by as much as 2.8% in the case of FEP. However, most of these materials are prohibitively expensive to warrant a switch. The graphics right side illustrates the % difference between break‐even cost and the current material cost. Again, it shows viable, field‐tested fluoropolymers, like ETFE, cost about 20% more than its break‐even value of $14/m².

Three other materials, however, offer an attractive value proposition from a price perspective. Low‐iron float glass is the most viable drop in replacement for rolled glass. Counter intuitively, it offers a modest overall price advantage at a cost of $9/m² over rolled glass despite slightly lower transmittance. Consequently, as rolled glass has increased in price, suppliers have begun offering float glasses of equal quality, and x-Si players like SolarWorld have begun incorporating the cheaper alternative into their modules.

On the fluoropolymer side, sheets based on transparent PVDF and Tedlar also provide dramatic cost/performance advantages over glass – each with well over $1/ m² of room to increase pricing and remain competitive. However, concerns regarding the long‐term field performance of such materials remain a key hurdle to adoption.

Rating x-Si module makers on the Lux Innovation Grid

lig-c-siCrystalline silicon (x-Si) PV modules comprise the largest and most established portion of the photovoltaic (PV) module market, holding roughly 81% of the global PV market in 2008. These x-Si modules also have significant penetration in all sizes of grid-tied applications – from residential to large-scale utility installations.

A handful of large, top-tier manufacturers dominate the market, but smaller start-ups with differentiated technologies are still entering. As the module oversupply rolls through 2009 and 2010, some crystalline silicon module manufacturers will be at the heart of the shakeout.

Examining the performance of companies in this technology area, we find that:

  • Large corporations with differentiated technologies are among the strongest performers.Many of the highest ranking companies are large corporations that stand out due to top-level high-efficiency products and large corporate backing. Their backing provides support for module warranties, capacity expansions, pricing battles, and technology development.
  • New competition from low-cost manufacturers is driving down the value of European leaders. European module manufacturers with high-quality x-Si module technologies are beginning to struggle as module production becomes increasingly commoditized. Their quality advantage is beginning to slide as new low-cost manufacturers gain access to higher-quality materials, dropping their scores on technical value scale.
  • Even with promising technologies, start-ups face formidable barriers to growth. The most successful pure-play solar firms got an early start in the market, and offer either differentiated technologies, sharp business execution, or both. New entrants to the solar market need more than a novel design or slight technical advantage to succeed. Companies building capacity, especially those based on a novel technology, score lower than those with existing capacity because they must play catch-up with more traditional and established manufacturers. The outlook is increasingly bleak for start-ups with unique technologies that are yet to build production capacity.