Tag Archives: Solibro

Nanosolar’s progress – or lack thereof – revealed at 4th Thin Film Summit USA

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In early December, we attended the Fourth Thin Film Summit USA in San Francisco, where we heard an interesting company presentation from Brian Stone at Nanosolar – a noteworthy venture-backed copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS) module producer. After raising nearly $400 million prior to 2009, the company has remained largely quiet for the past year. Lux last profiled* Nanosolar in late 2009.

Brian presented Nanosolar’s utility panels – an application-specific product, not unlike the utility panels offered by First Solar and crystalline silicon (x-Si) incumbents like Trina Solar. The panels, he said, delivered 11% efficiency, with a roadmap to 16% by 2015. He also highlighted a few pilot projects at Nanosolar, including plans for 8 MW to 10 MW of production in early 2012.

Brian also shed some light on the company’s cost structure, citing $0.65/W to $0.70/W for materials today, decreasing to $0.30/W to $0.35/W – however, we still believe that nanoink costs remain a major bottleneck* for the company. At 2.5 GW annual capacity, Nanosolar anticipates total module costs of $0.40/W to $0.45/W. Today, he cited total production costs between $1.10/W and $1.20/W. Lastly, Brian highlighted balance of systems savings in the company’s pilot projects, citing $0.10/W to $0.15/W savings by using Nanosolar panels.

Despite its ambitious roadmap to low production costs, we think Nanosolar’s lack of competitiveness today will prohibit it from reaching its goals.

It is targeting utility-scale projects, but an 11% efficient panel won’t allow it to compete with cadmium telluride (CdTe) leader First Solar, which can also develop utility-scale projects internally. Even amorphous silicon (a-Si) can prove competitive against an 11% efficient CIGS panel, depending on location. On the other hand, CIGS is gaining traction in commercial rooftop applications, which are less space-constrained than residential rooftops.

In general, it’s clear that Nanosolar could very well be a victim of the solar shakeout in 2012 without additional investment. The company is simply not keeping up with the leaders in the CIGS market, like Stion and Solibro – both of which are above 13% production efficiency – and capacity leader Solar Frontier. That competitive landscape, in addition to bolstered competition from x-Si and CdTe, place Nanosolar squarely on the outside looking in.

* Client registration required.

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Lux Q2 2010 Solar Supply Tracker: Growing demand stretches upstream supply

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Last week, Lux Research released its Q2 2010 Solar Supply Tracker (client registration required), which updates our figures on production and capacity throughout the value chain through 2013. Regular readers of the Tracker will find the most important update since Q1 is in the recent version’s demand forecast, which has been increased to 15 GW of market demand in 2010, driven by a surge in Germany and Italy ahead of 2011 feed-in-tariff reductions. We discussed this following PVSEC in Valencia a few weeks ago (see the September 16, 2010 LRSJ – client registration required).

On the supply side, Tier 1 and 2 module manufacturers are poised to produce 14.8 GW in 2010. Figuring in Tier 3 players for the “high case” scenario shows a potential for 18.0 GW of production in 2010. However, even with this greater-than-expected demand, Tier 1 and 2 module manufacturers maintain oversupply with 20 GW of capacity.

In Q2, crystalline silicon (x-Si) increased its technology dominance, reaching 79% of module production. Thin-film silicon (TF-Si), led by large manufacturers like Sharp and Bosch, and cadmium telluride (CdTe), dominated by First Solar, each account for about 9% of total production. Together, these three technologies make up nearly the whole module market. Copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS) modules are still being produced in small quantities, but will quickly grow more than 1 GW if Solibro, Miasolé, and Solar Frontier execute plans for large capacity expansions over the next several quarters.

Geographically, Asia increased its dominance in module manufacturing, accounting for 75% of production in Q2 as more European capacity became unviable and low-cost Asian manufacturers like Trina, Yingli, and LDK added capacity in the downturn. On the polysilicon front, Wacker added European capacity, increasing the EU’s production share to 20% from 17% the previous quarter. However, Asia still holds the largest share at 43%.

A number of key market shifts occurred in Q2 throughout the value chain. Chinese polysilicon producers were a mixed bag as several low-cost manufacturers, including Jiangsu Shunda and Sichuan Xinguang, shut down for retooling or recapitalization while new entrants Yongxiang and Fine Silicon (owned by Yingli Green Energy) were still ramping production. Meanwhile, demand in 2010 will reach 100,000 MT and exceed the 75,000 MT production of the six top polysilicon producers – Hemlock, Wacker, GCL, OCI, REC, and MEMC – providing room for new entrants like Daqo New Energy. Further downstream, wafer supply is increasingly constrained in the face of strong demand and will hit 78% capacity utilization in Q3. Low-cost Asian manufacturers continue to dominate this segment, with GCL Silicon, Kyocera, and Green Energy Technology moving into the top 11. Strong demand has spurred several companies to make aggressive expansions in cell and module production. JA Solar led the charge in cell production, rising into the top 3 in Q2 and positioning itself to overtake the entire field by capacity in Q3. It has also integrated downstream into module production, along with China Sunergy, through acquisitions. Although these companies are emerging as new leaders, the top five module manufacturers remained unchanged from Q1, with the exception of Suntech Power, which overtook First Solar at the top spot in Q2 with 1.4 GW of capacity.

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Sorting CIGS solar module-makers on the Lux Innovation Grid

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Graphic of the WeekAlthough the solar industry entered this with strong momentum, the second half of 2010 looks more like 2009 as solar module-makers once again face price steep declines and tighter competition. This week’s graphic comes from recent Lux Research report that applies our proprietary Lux Innovation Grid to help identify likely winners in several solar module categories.

More specifically, the graphic focuses on manufacturers of copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS) modules, which potentially combine high efficiency with the low costs of thin-film modules. However, CIGS is a tricky material to work with and, as a result, only a handful of modules have made it to market to date.

At long last, however, a few CIGS players have broken from the pack and crossed into the Grid’s “dominant category.” At the top of the list is Q-Cells subsidiary Solibro, whose technical score is buoyed by new modules that deliver some of the highest CIGS efficiencies, peaking at 11%. The company also scores highly for business execution after ramping up commercial-scale production from less than 15 MW in 2009 to more than 50 MW today. With financial backing from Q-Cells, Solibro could conceivably expand capacity to more than 150 MW in 2011.

Not far behind it are Miasolé, Solar Frontier and Avencis. After a number of false starts and over $300 million of investment, Miasole has finally expanded production capacity to more than 80 MW with average efficiencies of 10.5%. It also receives a high technical score due to the industry-leading efficiencies of its roll-to-roll manufacturing process. Solar Frontier aggressively pledged $1.7 billion into ramping production capacity to 1 GW by 2012, which helps separate it from the pack in terms of business execution. But it lags behind Solibro on technical value due to a more complicated (i.e. costly) manufacturing process.

Solyndra scores highly in business execution thanks to the sheer amount of cash it’s amassed. But its technical value flags far lower than many competitors due to a poor cost structure based on high capital costs and low manufacturing yields. It has also failed to boost average module efficiency beyond 9%.

Source: Lux Research report “Sorting Solar Module and Inverter Manufacturers on the Lux Innovation Grid.”

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Lux’s Q1 2010 Solar Supply Tracker sees growing production amidst slight oversupply

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Last month, we released the Q1 2010 version of the Lux Research Solar Supply Tracker (see Solar Supply Tracker, Q1 2010 – client registration required). It includes figures on production and capacity data throughout the value chain through 2013.

Notably, the Tracker revealed that total module production for 2010 will be 12.6 GW, an increase of about 4.7 GW from 2009 production. We’ve also updated the Lux Research demand forecast, which predicts 12.1 GW of market demand in 2010, signifying a slight oversupply this year.

Crystalline silicon (x-Si) will account for 76% of total new module production in 2010. Most of the remaining share will be split between inorganic thin-film PV – particularly thin-film silicon (TF-Si) fueled by a slew of entrants – and cadmium telluride (CdTe), overwhelmingly provided by First Solar. Each will each account for 11% of 2010 module production. Companies like Avancis, Würth Solar, and Solibro will each produce a handful of Copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS) modules in 2010, to round out the balance of new module production.

In terms of geography, Asia continues to dominate the manufacturing scene, accounting for 45% of polysilicon production, 78% of wafer production, and 71% of module production in 2010. Though Asia dominates in absolute production, several companies are adding capacity in North America, hoping to capitalize on promising demand in the U.S. and Canada, including Canadian Solar, SunPower, and Yingli.

A number of companies made notable changes to production and plans in Q1. Upgraded metallurgical silicon (UMG-Si) producers Dow Corning and Timminco stopped production at their Brazilian and Canadian facilities, respectively. Both companies cited decreased market demand, and will leave capacity idle with plans to reevaluate demand in a few years.

While UMG-Si players are hurting, top-tier polysilicon suppliers are thriving. The top six polysilicon producers – Hemlock, Wacker, GCL, OCI, REC, and MEMC – will supply 75% of the total polysilicon to the market in 2010. Further downstream, several companies beat expectations and are accelerating ramp schedules. Taiwanese wafer player Green Energy Technology, cellmaker Neo Solar Power, and Chinese module manufacturer Solarfun all increased or accelerated capacity addition plans, citing increasing customer demand. Although Solarfun garnered more market share with its increasing capacity, it could not crack the top five module manufacturers. First Solar remained in the top spot, followed by Suntech Power, Sharp, Canadian Solar, and Trina Solar.

Looking out several years, supply remains slightly above demand throughout the value chain – except at polysilicon, where a significant supply overhang remains. As we witnessed this quarter, this supply overhang forced more expensive producers to shut down production lines, as their processes are no longer economically viable. Expect more consolidation and additional polysilicon players shutting down production facilities, as well as significant shuffling of market share as new technologies gain  traction, the vertical integration trend continues, and delayed subsidy cuts in Europe keep demand high.

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