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Current Solar Technologies Aren’t Enough to Reach SunShot’s $1/W Installed Goal
Advanced silicon technologies will still be leading in cost per watt, maintaining market share, though none will hit the U.S. Department of Energy target, Lux Research says
BOSTON, MA – September 24, 2013 – A look at disruptive solar innovations finds that technologies built around crystalline silicon (x-Si) modules are the most likely to find commercial success even though they won't meet the "SunShot" targets of $1/W installed set by the U.S. Department of Energy for 2020, according to Lux Research.
Today’s installation prices are between two times and four times the SunShot targets of $1/W utility, $1.25/W commercial, and $1.50/W residential installation prices. Even in 2030, improvements will leave installation prices 13% above the targeted $1/W utility installation price.
“The most promising technologies are bifacial crystalline silicon modules, followed by tandem cell architectures for III-V and CIGS technologies – these approaches will come closest to the target module costs and efficiencies by 2030,” said Fatima Toor, Lux Research Analyst and the lead author of the report titled, “Continuing Education: Going Back to School for Photovoltaic Innovation.” "Other technology families such as OPV/DSSC and heavy metals are likely to be farther away," she added.
Roadmap for Technology Adoption of Various Incumbent and Next-generation PV Technologies
Lux Research analysts compared disruptive technologies relative to the $1/W system price target and sorted them for their commercial feasibility, technology potential and expected market share by 2030. Among their findings:
The report, titled “Continuing Education: Going Back to School for Photovoltaic Innovation,” is part of the Lux Research Solar Components Intelligence service.
About Lux Research
Lux Research provides strategic advice and ongoing intelligence for emerging technologies. Leaders in business, finance and government rely on us to help them make informed strategic decisions. Through our unique research approach focused on primary research and our extensive global network, we deliver insight, connections and competitive advantage to our clients. Visit www.luxresearchinc.com for more information.