News & Events

Research Schedule

Industrial Big Data and Analytics
Date Title & Description
Q1 2017 NLP for Mere Mortals: Benchmarking Real-world Performance of Natural Language Processing Incumbents and Startups

There are an increasing number of off-the-shelf natural language processing (NLP) products available from many developers, ranging from large incumbents to startups. For customers, it will be crucial to pick the right technology supplier(s); for that, they need a benchmark against which current and future NLP can be evaluated, on same playing field. This NLP evaluation focuses on performance in understanding technical articles, spanning across five of Lux Research’s innovation coverage areas, covering many types of events, ranging from acquisition to collaboration to product launch. We find Google’s Cloud Platform currently leads, with Open Calais and NLTK rounding out top three; generally, entity recognition is now achievable, but other tasks need more R&D.
 

Q2 2016 Towards Intelligent Intermodal Trade: Industrial Big Data and Analytics in Transportation and Logistics

Managing every industry’s flow of goods, transportation and logistics are a near-literal lifeblood of the global economy, and international trade is soaring. But this growth enables companies in the space to ignore profound problems: they are inefficient, dirty grotesquely underutilized, and miserably unprofitable. Addressing these failures, key innovations are starting to capture, compile, and analyze the vast amounts of data that today’s dumb systems ignore, adding to the intermodal mix, while advanced data management and analytics to bring intelligence. Change from outside can come swiftly, as shown in the past by containerization and eCommerce. In the next decade, intermodal and intelligent technologies will create a hypermodal system that moves not just goods, but supply, demand, and means of production – transporting packages as fast as the internet does packets.
 

Q3 2016 Industrial Big Data and Analytics in Digital Health

A profusion of patient sensors is joining advances in quantitative medicine and systems biology, giving health care providers more data than they can effectively manage. But the opportunities – from cost reduction to personalized medicine – are compelling enough to keep the big data dream alive. This report looks at the use cases, the business case for them, and the landscape of vendors that can help health care industry players achieve their goals.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q4 2016 Strategic Directions for Enterprise Artificial Intelligence

For most of its existence, the field of artificial intelligence (AI) was confined to academic and highly technical pursuits, but in 2016, AI became the next business imperative. Thanks to the rise of a non-technical AI community, software and services bringing AI to enterprise needs, and enterprise software vendors shifting to “AI-first” from “mobile first” strategies, corporate users now have real offerings to choose from and real decisions to make, like, Which AI vendors should I choose, for what enterprise needs? How will my industry be affected by AI? What should my company’s AI strategy be?
 

Q4 2016 Emerging Technologies to Watch in 2017

The Lux Research team is constantly uncovering innovative ideas – novel technologies, creative new business models, and emerging growth opportunities. But while it's easy to find reports of new technologies that are purported to be transformative, they're often lacking the context or critical analysis to understand the real market opportunities, and the strategies to capitalize on them. In contrast, when a Lux analyst spots a new idea, her first instinct is to try to break it down, poke holes in it, find out why it won't work – and in many cases, it is does not pass muster. So those that do pass Lux’s vetting process really have something to them, as these are the ideas that can really have an effect on our lives, our businesses, and our world. Each year we challenge the analyst team to say what technology or trend they're following that has the greatest potential to transform the world over the over the next decade. Here are some of the ideas Lux is following as we start 2017.
 

Solar
Date Title & Description
Q1 2017 Tier-One Technology Tracker: Charting the Momentum of Thin-Film Leaders Solar Frontier and First Solar

First Solar and Solar Frontier are the two leading manufacturers of thin-film modules. As both are champions are different materials (CdTe vs. CIGS respectively), they also have very distinct presences in the global photovoltaic industry. With similar technology advantages over crystalline silicon modules, we assess how these two companies have diverged to pursue different areas of the market and what their future prospects. To compare the two, we determine their relative momentum and identify evolving strategies that can change their dynamic in the industry – particularly with their pursuit of utility-scale vs distributed applications and their accelerating technology improvements.
 

Q1 2016 The Rise of Perovskites: Identifying the Best Academic Partners to Work With

Perovskite solar cells have garnered significant attention from both academia and the industry as a potential next generation photovoltaic material. Despite promising efficiency records, many issues must be addressed before market adoption occurs including stability, reliability, and toxicity. The key for doing so will be partnerships between industry pioneers and academic leaders such as those formed between Dyesol and Michael Graztel or Oxford Photovoltaic and Henry Snaith. In this report, we present the current state of perovskite solar cells and identify opportunities in academia with which to partner. We find publishing leaders such as Nam-gyu Park and Yang Yan are not tied-up, as well as numerous universities based in Europe, Asia, and North America. Clients should be aware of how perovskites can compete or integrate with existing technologies, while material clients can have a lot to gain in driving perovskite solar cells towards adoption.
 

Q2 2016 Tier-One Solar Technology Tracker: Ranking the Crystalline-Silicon Leaders for 2016

Tier-one manufacturers are slow-moving behemoths that dominate the photovoltaic market: They both set the stage for innovation and are susceptible to disruption. We look at the current market positions of the leading eight tier-one manufacturers and examine their momentum for technology innovation. Manufacturers are moving to offer comparable modules as well as supporting products, but are diverging in their approaches to developing novel cell architectures. In this new methodology, these leading manufacturers mostly fall into the camp of either innovation laggards or supporters, while one clearly leads the pack.
 

Q2 2016 How Solar Costs Will Continue to Drop: Incremental Gains Versus Disruptive Step Changes

The cost of crystalline silicon modules has dropped over 60% since 2009, leading to photovoltaic plants becoming a credible source of electricity capacity expansions globally. As Chinese manufacturers have achieved significant cost reductions through economies of scale, vertical integration, and supply chain proximity, core material costs plummeted. These declines in production cost set an optimistic outlook, but future costs will decline at a more incremental rate unless manufacturers move to adopt disruptive technologies. We look what the baseline is for cost reduction, and how kerfless wafering, reduced silver-content metallization, and high efficiency cells can alter the anticipated trend.
 

Q3 2016 Policy and Emerging Markets: Setting the Stage for the Next Wave of Solar Deployment

Solar has risen to become a credible source of energy as a result of supportive policies from the mature markets of Germany, the U.S., and China. However, as these country dial-back their policy support, a new set of countries are emerging that are targeting increased solar deployment through a host of policy support. Given the varied conditions found in each country, it is unclear how impactful these new markets will be to the global solar market. As such, all industry stake-holder should be aware of how the global landscape of the solar industry will shift as emerging markets take hold. Within Latin America, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa we find there will be key leaders while most of the largest markets will host steady deployment.
 

Q4 2016 Extending Lifetime and Performance: Breaking Down the Photovoltaic Module

The standard lifetime of conventional photovoltaic systems is now 25 years – a timespan that reflects the point at which a module outputs 80% of its original rated power. This lifetime is used by downstream players to determine the financials of an installations, making it integral to an investor that modules perform as predicted over the 25-year period. The key determinant of a module’s degradation is at the module level – how the cells are interconnected and what materials are used in their packaging. As photovoltaic deployment expands globally, questions have arisen around how degradation is environment-dependent and how prevalent modes of degradation can be prevented. This report looks at current trends in the research community and industry in addressing degradation and improving performance. We assess the environment-related performance of five module architectures and identify market opportunities for their adoption.
 

Q4 2016 Emerging Technologies to Watch in 2017

The Lux Research team is constantly uncovering innovative ideas – novel technologies, creative new business models, and emerging growth opportunities. But while it's easy to find reports of new technologies that are purported to be transformative, they're often lacking the context or critical analysis to understand the real market opportunities, and the strategies to capitalize on them. In contrast, when a Lux analyst spots a new idea, her first instinct is to try to break it down, poke holes in it, find out why it won't work – and in many cases, it is does not pass muster. So those that do pass Lux’s vetting process really have something to them, as these are the ideas that can really have an effect on our lives, our businesses, and our world. Each year we challenge the analyst team to say what technology or trend they're following that has the greatest potential to transform the world over the over the next decade. Here are some of the ideas Lux is following as we start 2017.
 

Q4 2016 Electrifying the Walls: Growing Competition in Building-Integrated Photovoltaics

Conventional distributed photovoltaic systems are confined to rooftops, requiring additional hardware to be mounted on existing building materials. Not only does this increase the cost of systems, but it also results in an unaesthetic structure sitting above a house's roof line or is unable to utilize the larger facade area of tall commercial buildings. Numerous companies have attempted to address these problems by presenting a plethora of building-integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) systems. Despite the attention, the BIPV market has remained a relatively niche market with most activity focused in Europe. There has yet to emerge a compelling product to prompt a convergence of the solar and construction industries. We examine multiple photovoltaic technology solutions that can be applied to roofs, facades, and windows, identifying what is most likely to become economically competitive and what type of systems will appears.
 

Q1 2015 Assessing the Cost Competitiveness of Solar-Generated Steam

Even with low natural gas and oil prices in many markets around the world, operations seeking to reduce operational expenses or conserve fuel may find that industrial-scale concentrated solar power (CSP) technologies can generate low-cost steam. In this report, we explore the current CSP technologies that companies could utilize in steam generation applications by considering geography and calculating a levelized cost of steam (LCOS). We find that parabolic tough technologies lead the pack now and in the future, ultimately reaching $5/ MMBtu in 2020, competitive with conventional fossil fuel boilers.
 

Q1 2015 Finding the Emerging Technologies That Will Shape the World

The Lux Research team is constantly uncovering innovative ideas – novel technologies, creative new business models, and emerging growth opportunities. But while reports of new technologies purported to be transformative can be found in many places, they're often lacking the context or critical analysis to understand the real market opportunities, and the strategies to capitalize on them. In contrast, when a Lux analyst spots a new idea, her first instinct is to try to break it down, poke holes in it, find out why it won't work – and in many cases, it is does not pass muster. So those that do pass Lux’s vetting process really have something to them, as these are the ideas that can really have an effect on our lives, our businesses, and our world. From time to time we challenge the analyst team to give the idea from their research – whether it's a theme, a trend, a market, a company, a technology – that they think will have the biggest impact over the next five to 10 years. Here's some of the ideas Lux is following as we start 2015.
 

Q3 2015 Silicon Solar Cell and Module Roadmap

PERC and PERL cell architectures have become significantly more common among tier-one x-Si solar players in the past two years; meanwhile, companies like First Solar and SolarCity are investing in n-type, bifacial cell technologies to target distributed generation markets. In this report, we will lay out the possibilities for continued cell evolution as manufacturers continue to increase investments in R&D, with a focus on higher efficiencies and lower production costs to drive the next wave of solar deployment.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q3 2015 Community Solar: Distributing the Array to the Masses

Community solar is a business model emerging in the U.S. that provides the benefits of solar generation to portions of the consumer electricity market that are unable to host a rooftop solar installation. Through a community solar program, residential and commercial ratepayers have the option to purchase electricity generated at an off-site array. Legislation has propelled the community solar market in some states, while other states have seen lackluster growth. Utilities have also developed successful programs without policy support, with their motivation varying depending on their type. The market is still a nascent space with many developers entering, but there is one clear leader that new entrants much catch up to. Lessons learned in the U.S. will be important if utilities in international markets are to begin developing their own programs. Our analysis presents case-studies, examines the partnership space, and determines the financial attractiveness of community solar projects.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Advanced Materials
Date Title & Description
Q1 2017 Major Developments in Advanced Materials and Manufacturing and Key Trends for 2017

2016 was an action packed year for materials and manufacturing. The combined effects of digital transformation, increased demand for energy and efficiency, and the growing importance of health and wellness were key in 2016 and stand to shape 2017. This report highlights five key events in 2016 and outlines five key trends to look out for in 2017.
 

Q1 2016 0 to 100: The Rapidly Accelerating Future of Automotive Efficiency

The material composition of the car is changing at more rapid pace than ever before, driven by regulation and consumer demand. Gone are the days of all steel construction: Aluminum has penetrated the mainstream with the Ford-F150. Carbon fiber reinforced polymers, once relegated to supercars, are a dominant structural material in a production vehicle. At the same time, electrification, automation, and the changing composition of fuels are all poised to impact the automobile. This is only the first wave of a radical change set take place in the next ten years. Those in the automotive supply chain, or who wish to benefit from it, will need to act now to keep their footing as the landscape shifts beneath them.

Q1 2016 Design and Manufacturing in Advanced Materials: A Taxonomy

Defining the taxonomy of advanced materials design and manufacturing tools provides clarity on the opportunities and challenges that materials and part developers face as a result of continued demand for fast, high-performance innovation at low cost. The branches of the design and manufacturing taxonomy are set up to answer three important questions: How do you design products that make effective use of emerging material technologies? How do you efficiently and reliably manufacture such parts? How do emerging material, design, and manufacturing technologies affect your business model?

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q2 2016 Advanced Materials: Taxonomy Update

We are updating the Advanced Materials coverage taxonomy to reflect a continually changing landscape of emerging material and processing technologies. The main branches of the advanced materials taxonomy divide material technologies into three main categories of emerging technologies: Surfaces, structures, and future material platforms. "Surfaces" includes coating and surface treatment technologies that impart or enhance material properties. "Structures" includes materials used to form the bulk composition of parts, and key advances in the process technologies used to produce and process them. "Future material platforms" includes novel, emerging material technologies that offer high long-term disruptive potential by increasing the range of what properties future materials can offer.
 

Q2 2016 Carbon Fiber Update 2016 Edition

Carbon fiber has long been a mainstay of high performance structural applications, but technology developments and regulatory changes are driving it into new applications. This creates new opportunities, but also demands more of the industry and exposes it to new market forces. In the Carbon Fiber Update report we update our projections of carbon fiber cost, map the growth of global carbon fiber capacity, use the Lux Innovation Grid to identify key technology developers in the industry, and provide an outlook on the future of the industry.
 

Q2 2016 Scratching the Surface: Opportunity and Strategy in Protective Coatings

Protective coatings serve a critical function fighting corrosion, wear, friction, and fouling in a diverse range of industries. The lure of this large market entices multinationals and start-ups alike, but there are a dizzying array of coating options and a host of technology, business, and regulatory challenges. To assist end users and coating developers, we sized four key markets for protective coatings and the penetration of hydrophobic functional coatings, positioned start-ups with novel coating solutions on the Lux Innovation Grid, and developed strategy scenarios for the turbulent oil and gas space.
 

Q2 2016 3D Printing Update 2016 Edition

The 3D printing space rapidly matured in 2015 as start-ups with new technology and business approaches broke onto the scene. To keep our clients up to date and guide their decision-making, the 3D Printing Update report assesses emerging start-ups and established players on the Lux Innovation Grid to identify winners, losers, over-hyped start-ups, and hidden gems; breaks down start-up funding; and provides an outlook for the future of the industry.
 

Q3 2016 Carbon Nanomaterials Update 2016

Carbon nanotubes and graphene captured the imagination of industry for years before falling victim to hype and oversupply. Now, CNT companies are finally bringing valuable products to market, while graphene developers retreat to academic partnerships. To guide our clients in the space, Lux ranked material and product developers on the Lux Innovation Grid, mapped the relationships between start-ups and multinationals, and sized the markets for multiwalled nanotubes and graphene.
 

Q4 2016 Assessing the Opportunity of Additive Manufacturing for the Oil and Gas Industry

The oil and gas industry is undergoing a major transformation in the low oil price era as the focus shifts towards operational efficiency. Oil and gas companies are beginning to explore the application of additive manufacturing and several speculative use cases exist across the upstream and downstream sectors. This report outlines a methodology to filter out specific use cases that are appropriate for 3D printing, and identifies the most lucrative use cases the industry should act on.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q4 2016 Thinking Outside the Box: Identifying Materials Innovations in Packaging

Packaging industry requires innovations, but consumer preferences present complex dichotomies between performance and packaging waste. Emerging developers are targeting new materials that improve performance and/or end-of-life. In this report, we analyze emerging additives, coatings, thermal management materials, and structural materials on performance and end-of-life and highlight companies developing these materials. We then identify the most promising materials for packaging, as well as mid-term and long-term packaging options.
 

Q4 2016 Emerging Technologies to Watch in 2017

The Lux Research team is constantly uncovering innovative ideas – novel technologies, creative new business models, and emerging growth opportunities. But while it's easy to find reports of new technologies that are purported to be transformative, they're often lacking the context or critical analysis to understand the real market opportunities, and the strategies to capitalize on them. In contrast, when a Lux analyst spots a new idea, her first instinct is to try to break it down, poke holes in it, find out why it won't work – and in many cases, it is does not pass muster. So those that do pass Lux’s vetting process really have something to them, as these are the ideas that can really have an effect on our lives, our businesses, and our world. Each year we challenge the analyst team to say what technology or trend they're following that has the greatest potential to transform the world over the over the next decade. Here are some of the ideas Lux is following as we start 2017.
 

Q1 2015 Hot and Not: Identifying Hot Spots of Innovation in Advanced Materials

The advanced materials space covers a broad spectrum of technologies, and understanding the dynamics of a multitude of industries requires identifying the key points of high momentum and strong potential, particularly given the long development timelines involved in bringing new materials to market. To assist our clients in assessing emerging technology developers for potential relationships, we compared Partnership, Technology,
 

Q1 2015 Finding the Emerging Technologies That Will Shape the World

The Lux Research team is constantly uncovering innovative ideas – novel technologies, creative new business models, and emerging growth opportunities. But while reports of new technologies purported to be transformative can be found in many places, they're often lacking the context or critical analysis to understand the real market opportunities, and the strategies to capitalize on them. In contrast, when a Lux analyst spots a new idea, her first instinct is to try to break it down, poke holes in it, find out why it won't work – and in many cases, it is does not pass muster. So those that do pass Lux’s vetting process really have something to them, as these are the ideas that can really have an effect on our lives, our businesses, and our world. From time to time we challenge the analyst team to give the idea from their research – whether it's a theme, a trend, a market, a company, a technology – that they think will have the biggest impact over the next five to 10 years. Here's some of the ideas Lux is following as we start 2015.
 

Q2 2015 Assessing Challenges, Opportunities, and Innovators in Advanced Structural Ceramics

Advanced structural ceramics’ unparalleled combination of stiffness, hardness, light weight, and high-temperature stability tease the potential to replace metals in demanding applications. However, commercial deployment has long been hamstrung by high processing costs and unpredictable brittle failure modes. Large corporations have historically dominated development, but innovative start-ups bubble beneath the surface, creating a route for aspiring companies to enter the space or enhance their portfolios. Current and budding participants need know where structural ceramics can address unmet needs and improve performance. To guide clients, we created a heat map that shows the significance of given properties in various applications, created a spider plot that maps how valuable overcoming a given challenge is to driving adoption, and employed the Lux Innovation Grid to identify which start-ups make for the most attractive partnership candidates.
 

Q2 2015 Surfaces Get Smarter: Scouting Emerging Coatings, Markets, and Functionalities

Coatings have long been used to protect and enhance surfaces as mundane as walls to the most critical industrial equipment. More recently, advances in nanotechnology and materials science have enabled advanced functionalities such as hydrophobicity and self-healing, while researchers strive to enable next generation coatings to dynamically react to their environment. From end users to materials suppliers, the changing capabilities of coatings stand to impact the entire value chain in multiple industries. To aid clients, we use the Lux Innovation Grid to sort winners and losers in hydrophobic coatings, discuss key trends, drivers, and players in liquid-infused and self-healing coatings, and scout the capabilities of emerging “smart” coatings that have the potential to redefine the role of surfaces entirely.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q3 2015 Get Smart: Smart Materials as a Design Paradigm

The phrase “smart materials” emerged over thirty years ago to refer to class of materials capable of changing their properties automatically in response to an external stimulus. Despite the growing interest, Lux found that the term “smart materials” is too broad to be useful in solving commercially relevant problems. Instead, finding those solutions requires drilling down to specific material types and fundamentally rethinking how to build a product at the system and subsystem level. To aid our clients, we developed a classification of 16 major categories of smart materials, evaluated patent activity to determine the leaders in each area, and analyzed three case studies of both mature and emerging smart materials.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Materials Design and Manufacturing
Date Title & Description
Q1 2017 Major Developments in Advanced Materials and Manufacturing and Key Trends for 2017

2016 was an action packed year for materials and manufacturing. The combined effects of digital transformation, increased demand for energy and efficiency, and the growing importance of health and wellness were key in 2016 and stand to shape 2017. This report highlights five key events in 2016 and outlines five key trends to look out for in 2017.
 

Q4 2016 Emerging Technologies to Watch in 2017

The Lux Research team is constantly uncovering innovative ideas – novel technologies, creative new business models, and emerging growth opportunities. But while it's easy to find reports of new technologies that are purported to be transformative, they're often lacking the context or critical analysis to understand the real market opportunities, and the strategies to capitalize on them. In contrast, when a Lux analyst spots a new idea, her first instinct is to try to break it down, poke holes in it, find out why it won't work – and in many cases, it is does not pass muster. So those that do pass Lux’s vetting process really have something to them, as these are the ideas that can really have an effect on our lives, our businesses, and our world. Each year we challenge the analyst team to say what technology or trend they're following that has the greatest potential to transform the world over the over the next decade. Here are some of the ideas Lux is following as we start 2017.
 

Q4 2016 Beyond Material Innovations: How Construction Technologies for Digitization and Automation Will Compete and Influence the Industry

The building construction industry sees increasing disruptions related to digitization and automation of specific works related to building design, component prefabrication, onsite assembling, and maintenance and demolition. This report identified the technologies supporting these disruptions, evaluated their competition positions in respective markets, and their influence on the future of construction works. Technologies that can win the immediate competition against incumbent solutions are mainly related to software (such as simulation software) and data collection solutions (such as 3D scanning) to improve work and process. Technologies with potential to become prominent in the short-term future have clear advantages and solvable disadvantages for either digitization (such as augmented reality for onsite works) or automation (such as offsite 3D printing). Behind all these technologies is building information modeling (BIM), which enables data exchange and collaboration so that it is becoming the linkage among all future construction works. Digitization and automation based on BIM will be an inevitable trend in the future construction.
 

Digital Transformation
Date Title & Description
Q1 2017 Major Developments in Advanced Materials and Manufacturing and Key Trends for 2017

2016 was an action packed year for materials and manufacturing. The combined effects of digital transformation, increased demand for energy and efficiency, and the growing importance of health and wellness were key in 2016 and stand to shape 2017. This report highlights five key events in 2016 and outlines five key trends to look out for in 2017.
 

Q1 2017 Looking Back on 2016 – The Year of the Smart Home

Investors poured $300 million into smart home startups in 2016, with no particular pattern or sophistication, and acquisitions did not keep pace with the strong investment. It was a busy year for partnerships as well, with telcos and insurers forging partnerships with smart home hardware startups, following a similar path of utilities years ago. At the same time, smart home platforms continued to grow their number of partners and enabled capabilities; it is still too early to call a winner, as Samsung’s SmartThings triple-digit growth proves platforms are still anyone’s game. In collaboration with Argus Insights, we analyzed consumer sentiment data in order to isolate what devices are resonating most with consumers, and why. We then compared consumers’ views to our own methodology for evaluating value within the smart home, and took a deep dive into the smart thermostat (the only “killer app” of the smart home that we identified in 2015), to understand its rise in consumer delight and buzz volume. All of this analysis points to energy as an established and maturing segment in the smart home, with security entering the “emerging” state. Well-being, a category which was particularly interesting a year ago, is still largely in development but companies need to actively engage in this area to avoid missing the wave.
 

Corporate Strategic Intelligence: Chemicals and Materials
Date Title & Description
Q1 2017 Competitive Strategic Intelligence - 3M

3M is a long-term success story. For years, it has been one of the best performing companies in the materials and chemicals sector. 3M produces a diverse range of largely material-based finished products specifically formatted for customer use. For growth, the firm depends on innovation. It is a technology leader in material science and engineering. It is strong in internal innovation as indicated by many new products, R&D spending, and patent activity. A key to 3M’s success is its excellent management of the organizational boundaries between the customer, R&D, manufacturing, and business. The firm also has the advantages of working at scale and a strong, positive brand. As a large global conglomerate, 3M also focuses on managing its business portfolio via reorganization and M&A, and delivering cost savings through business work process improvements.
 

Q1 2016 Corporate Strategic Intelligence: DuPont

The DowDuPont “merger of equals” and planned breakup has a clear logic to it, and it is this: to augment Dow Chemical’s core businesses with DuPont’s most profitable division, Performance Materials, to create a conservative $50 billion company not distracted by both companies’ recent experimentations in areas like agriculture and biology. The logic makes perfect sense from Dow’s perspective, but for DuPont the result is wrenching. The companies being spun out of the merger each have high-value DuPont divisions that would be far more valuable in other hands: the world’s foremost industrial biosciences division, a top North American seed company, and a solid commodity chemicals group top the list. Clients who move fast can secure enormously valuable assets from this chaotic process.
 

Q2 2016 Competitive Strategic Intelligence: Dow Chemical

Dow Chemical is a long-term success story in the chemical industry. Its recent announcement of a merger with DuPont will only enhance its offerings while creating little disruption to its core operations. Dow’s success relies on a relatively narrow range of basic chemicals and materials. It works at scale and with a high degree of expertise, allowing it to offer both high quality and relatively low prices. As an innovator, however, Dow often ranks below its major rivals: relatively high patent activity, reflective perhaps of a corporate culture that values formal if incremental IP, is not matched by either internal innovation as measured by R&D spending or outside innovation in the form of investments, partnerships, and M&A activity. This lack of investment locks Dow into a strategy that requires the company to excel in operational efficiency and take whatever advantages it can in performance in traditional materials.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q2 2016 Upheaval in the Chemicals and Materials Industry

The merger and breakup of Dow and DuPont signal a new era of competition in the chemicals and materials industry—one that is already forcing companies to take risks in technologies far from their traditional strengths in order to keep up healthy growth. Rapid changes in markets as diverse as automotive and agriculture, as well as fundamentally new types of materials solutions, are forcing companies to take major high risk bets. As part of its new Chemicals and Materials Corporate Strategic Intelligence service, in this webinar, Lux Research examines which competitors are best positioned to stay nimble in this uncertain environment, what disruptive technologies to watch out for, and what lessons the industry needs to learn from recent events.

Q4 2016 Does Bayer's Acquisition of Monsanto Make Sense?

This year, the agricultural industry underwent a dramatic shake-up as a series of mega-mergers and acquisitions occurred; one of those was Bayer’s acquisition of Monsanto. We conducted an in-depth analysis of the future combined company’s strengths and weaknesses across four technology categories; crop and seed traits, Digital Ag, synthetic agrochemicals, and biologicals. We examined each individual company's external innovations in these technology families by examining recent licenses, partnerships, and acquisitions. We also examined each individual company's internal innovations in these technology families by examining recently granted intellectual property. The analysis reveals if Bayer's acquisition of Monsanto made sense, and if it was truly worth the $66 billion price tag.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q4 2016 Emerging Technologies to Watch in 2017

The Lux Research team is constantly uncovering innovative ideas – novel technologies, creative new business models, and emerging growth opportunities. But while it's easy to find reports of new technologies that are purported to be transformative, they're often lacking the context or critical analysis to understand the real market opportunities, and the strategies to capitalize on them. In contrast, when a Lux analyst spots a new idea, her first instinct is to try to break it down, poke holes in it, find out why it won't work – and in many cases, it is does not pass muster. So those that do pass Lux’s vetting process really have something to them, as these are the ideas that can really have an effect on our lives, our businesses, and our world. Each year we challenge the analyst team to say what technology or trend they're following that has the greatest potential to transform the world over the over the next decade. Here are some of the ideas Lux is following as we start 2017.
 

Intelligent Buildings
Date Title & Description
Q1 2017 Looking Back on 2016 – The Year of the Smart Home

Investors poured $300 million into smart home startups in 2016, with no particular pattern or sophistication, and acquisitions did not keep pace with the strong investment. It was a busy year for partnerships as well, with telcos and insurers forging partnerships with smart home hardware startups, following a similar path of utilities years ago. At the same time, smart home platforms continued to grow their number of partners and enabled capabilities; it is still too early to call a winner, as Samsung’s SmartThings triple-digit growth proves platforms are still anyone’s game. In collaboration with Argus Insights, we analyzed consumer sentiment data in order to isolate what devices are resonating most with consumers, and why. We then compared consumers’ views to our own methodology for evaluating value within the smart home, and took a deep dive into the smart thermostat (the only “killer app” of the smart home that we identified in 2015), to understand its rise in consumer delight and buzz volume. All of this analysis points to energy as an established and maturing segment in the smart home, with security entering the “emerging” state. Well-being, a category which was particularly interesting a year ago, is still largely in development but companies need to actively engage in this area to avoid missing the wave.
 

Q1 2016 Smart Home Technologies Assessment – Explaining the Methodology

Smart home technologies are currently classified as energy-, well-being-, or security-centric solutions with specific functions delivered to the end consumer. Each player in the space is tackling different homeowner pain points in a variety of ways, making it a challenge to compare different kinds of technologies in terms of their value proposition. While cost is a common way of comparing plain hardware, smart home solutions come with software that unlocks additional characteristics that should be considerd, as well. Therefore, finding a way to monetize the value delivered by each smart home technology and combining it with the cost to the end consumer is a fair way of comparing the current status of the players and their functionalities in the smart home space.
 

Q2 2016 Advanced Indoor Sensing: The Next Frontier of the Built Environment

Commercial buildings are quickly becoming the target of tech companies, who are aiming to equip them with a vast array of technologies from augmented reality to ibeacons. These advanced indoor sensing (AIS) technologies, which enable detailed data gathering from inside building spaces, are dominated by startups. In this report, we cut through the hype around building connectivity to evaluate these technologies competitiveness against conventional indoor sensing. Drawing on the results, we analyze which building types are best suited to leverage AIS, and how companies should proceed in developing their own AIS offerings for maximum impact.
 

Q2 2016 Smart Appliances: Delivering the Next Level of Convenience in the Home

Smart appliances are part of the smart home ecosystem, although device developments focused on energy, security, and well-being overshadow activities around household appliances. Multiple manufacturers are developing their own smart appliances offering a higher degree of convenience for cooking, cleaning, and control the indoor environment in the home; although long replacement cycles affect speed of deployment of new appliances. This report describes the current smart appliance landscape, and identifies overlooked areas in the smart home where new players can compete against dominant incumbents. It also analyses and provides a comparison between convenience delivered to the end consumer by smart appliances and the premium costs attached to the added intelligence.
 

Q4 2016 Emerging Technologies to Watch in 2017

The Lux Research team is constantly uncovering innovative ideas – novel technologies, creative new business models, and emerging growth opportunities. But while it's easy to find reports of new technologies that are purported to be transformative, they're often lacking the context or critical analysis to understand the real market opportunities, and the strategies to capitalize on them. In contrast, when a Lux analyst spots a new idea, her first instinct is to try to break it down, poke holes in it, find out why it won't work – and in many cases, it is does not pass muster. So those that do pass Lux’s vetting process really have something to them, as these are the ideas that can really have an effect on our lives, our businesses, and our world. Each year we challenge the analyst team to say what technology or trend they're following that has the greatest potential to transform the world over the over the next decade. Here are some of the ideas Lux is following as we start 2017.
 

Q4 2016 Seeing Through the Haze: Identifying Challenges and Opportunities in the Indoor Air Quality Management Market

Air pollution is a rising topic among developed and developing countries, and it forms great challenges to outdoor and indoor air quality management. This report will focus on indoor air quality management, because people, on average, spend 90% of their time in buildings, and because indoor air quality is responsible for 5.5 million deaths every year worldwide. In this report, we examine the sources and effects of air pollutants, and summarize the incumbent technologies that are improving indoor air quality by targeting different air pollutants. Then, we observe recent innovations related to indoor air quality monitoring and purification with different investment stage and product offerings, and finally identify challenges and opportunities in terms of innovations, functionality, and geographic markets.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q4 2016 Underutilized Assets: Improving Productivity in the World’s Office Environments

Buildings are increasingly pushing forward, and optimizing beyond energy. Retail, in particular, is driving ahead with advancements such as AmazonGo’s futuristic pilot project. Startups and large companies have made small efforts to improve office workers’ productivity; however, this is not enough.The real estate model that governs the Western world’s 14 billion ft2of space is under threat from changes in the nature of work, artificial intelligence, and increasingly sophisticated workers. Opportunities abound for tackling environmental variables, such as enhanced air quality and acoustics, in the near term, and for connected furniture and employee monitoring further into the future. Delivering “productive” environments is complex, and will depend on new business models and creative partnering.
 

Q1 2015 Finding the Emerging Technologies That Will Shape the World

The Lux Research team is constantly uncovering innovative ideas – novel technologies, creative new business models, and emerging growth opportunities. But while reports of new technologies purported to be transformative can be found in many places, they're often lacking the context or critical analysis to understand the real market opportunities, and the strategies to capitalize on them. In contrast, when a Lux analyst spots a new idea, her first instinct is to try to break it down, poke holes in it, find out why it won't work – and in many cases, it is does not pass muster. So those that do pass Lux’s vetting process really have something to them, as these are the ideas that can really have an effect on our lives, our businesses, and our world. From time to time we challenge the analyst team to give the idea from their research – whether it's a theme, a trend, a market, a company, a technology – that they think will have the biggest impact over the next five to 10 years. Here's some of the ideas Lux is following as we start 2015.
 

Q1 2015 Investigating the Economics of Integrated Lighting Technologies

Lighting in commercial buildings expends more than 20% of energy by end-use, totaling more than $27 billion annually in the U.S. alone. While lamp efficiency and controls are often targeted for efficiency gains, integrated lighting – which combines daylighting measures with light sensing and control – can result in significant energy and cost savings. Though active and passive daylighting have been neglected by large lighting manufacturers, startups have filled this gap. In this report, we evaluate the landscape of integrated lighting solutions, and model the performance of several technologies in a commercial office environment; we chose Los Angeles and Tokyo to provide sufficient geographic variation. Active and passive daylighting measures are weighted heavily by high capex compared to daylight and occupancy sensing. Simple paybacks are longer than five years in all but one instance, compared with less than 10 months for sensors. One winning strategy is to combine daylighting technologies, such as solar control film, with sensing capability – boosting IRR to 24%. Strong product potential exists for after-market films, along with wireless daylight and occupancy sensors; however, other daylighting technologies will need a broader value proposition than energy savings alone.
 

Q3 2015 Beyond the Walls: Benchmarking BEMS Software and Hardware

The capabilities of Building Energy Management Systems (BEMS) has grown significantly in the last several years. This meteoric growth is in part due to the segment attracting $1.43 billion in venture funding over the last 15 years; software startups secured the largest share of this investment. What began as a system focused at better managing energy use in a building, these tools gave grown across a spectrum ranging from top-down portfolio-level analytical tools, to bottom-up hardware-centric controls. This expanded capabilities mean BEMS are well-positioned to better understand and manage energy use in buildings, but also across global portfolios. In this report, we have categorized the different BEMS technologies available, and benchmarked the startups in each in terms of their market strategy and cost. As new entrants continue to emerge, the price of deploying BEMS is falling, in some cases to less than $0.01/ft2/year. Players continue to pursue specific segments with tailored value propositions, and consistently deliver their software (and in some cases hardware) using a service-based approach. We expect this activity to continue as low-cost sensors and controls proliferate, but urge clients to develop specific use cases and pick their respective segments carefully.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Sensors
Date Title & Description
Q1 2017 Looking Back on 2016 – The Year of the Smart Home

Investors poured $300 million into smart home startups in 2016, with no particular pattern or sophistication, and acquisitions did not keep pace with the strong investment. It was a busy year for partnerships as well, with telcos and insurers forging partnerships with smart home hardware startups, following a similar path of utilities years ago. At the same time, smart home platforms continued to grow their number of partners and enabled capabilities; it is still too early to call a winner, as Samsung’s SmartThings triple-digit growth proves platforms are still anyone’s game. In collaboration with Argus Insights, we analyzed consumer sentiment data in order to isolate what devices are resonating most with consumers, and why. We then compared consumers’ views to our own methodology for evaluating value within the smart home, and took a deep dive into the smart thermostat (the only “killer app” of the smart home that we identified in 2015), to understand its rise in consumer delight and buzz volume. All of this analysis points to energy as an established and maturing segment in the smart home, with security entering the “emerging” state. Well-being, a category which was particularly interesting a year ago, is still largely in development but companies need to actively engage in this area to avoid missing the wave.
 

Q1 2016 Securing Mobile Payments with Biometric Authentication

There has been a lot of hype in mobile payments, with new products from major companies like Apple and Samsung, coming online in recent years. While analysts predicted fast growth in 2015, the actual results have been lagging. To counter slower than predicted growth, companies are beginning to add biometrics which would add security and usability for users while improving cooperation between different players in the mobile payment ecosystem chain. In this report we look at the best biometrics to include for three different types of payment use cases.
 

Q2 2016 Sensor Innovation: Analyzing Investment Trends Across the $4.3 Billion Spend

The Internet of Things (IoT) is the next major phase in computing following on the heels of the PC and mobile eras. Within the IoT, sensors constitute the “things,” and as end-points of the network system, sensor developers of all flavors and sizes have attracted investment over the past decade. The investor pool that has poured money into the sensors space includes everyone from venture capitalists (VCs) to private equity and investment banks to government entities and large corporations. Corporate commitment to sensors is at an all-time high with several companies such as Samsung, Panasonic and IBM investing several tens of billions.This report tracks the investment history in sensors for the past decade and evaluates the trends and patterns of investment.
 

Q3 2016 Sensor Patent Landscape: Sorting Through the Crowd in Search of Gold

This report analyzes patent trends of five different sensor types across five value chains, finding that the adoption and market for different sensor types vary by industry. The industries with the lowest barriers to entry for a majority of sensor types are in the consumer and medical device industries. Other industries, like automotive, have high barriers to entry across a majority of sensor types due to high patent activity from incumbent suppliers or from a lack of adoption from downstream OEMs.
 

Q3 2016 Semi IoT Market: Evaluating Companies to Find Leaders and Laggards

Chip makers are jockeying to get a piece of the potentially huge internet of things (IoT) market. The stakes are high; chip makers that succeed will be able to call the shots in a new and potentially lucrative markets, while those that fall behind could be relegated to also-ran status. Looking at the battle at the chip level is useful because chip makers – with their chips and modules – are developing the foundation for the whole IoT market and, as a result, provide an early glimpse of the new world to come. This report looks at four companies, including Intel, Qualcomm, Texas Instruments, and Nvidia, and their IoT product strategies and business execution. Lux built a criteria to evaluate the companies on their technical value, business execution, and overall maturity, and mapped the companies onto the Lux Innovation Grid (LIG).

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q3 2016 Keeping It Fresh: Improving Cold Chain Outcomes With Sensor Platforms

Cold supply chains are imperfect and prone to complications that damage brands and result in millions of dollars of product losses. Many of these issues stem from problems occuring during transit and at handoffs. The key factor that can damage cold goods is temperature, but other factors – like light, shock, and humidity – can also harm cold products. To prevent damages, enterprises can deploy real-time monitoring platforms that can alert operators before product is lost. In this report, we developed payback models for monitoring systems in five different use cases. We found that high-value products, like vaccines, recognize very positive paybacks through investment in more advanced monitoring systems. Less valuable products, like bulk commodity foods, require high loss rates to create a strong business case for next generation monitoring solutions.
 

Q4 2016 Innovation in Smart Textiles Moves from Materials to Analytics

Wearable electronics are moving beyond wrist worn devices into other forms of apparel that collect data, analyze it, and act on the insight. In this report, we explore how smart apparel is made smart via various means of sensor integration. Smart apparel can have sensors incorporated via weaving, printing or integration of standalone sensors, that will lead to varying levels of obtrusiveness, sensor function, flexibility, and washability,. While the sensor integration may vary, the subsequent development steps remain the same, with capabilities mostly limited by removable clips. Most devices currently on the market have removable electronic clips that cannot be washed. Future innovations will more seamlessly integrate these components via printing and weaving rather than attaching standalone sensors. While the current innovation is occurring in hardware, future innovation will move beyond the hardware to the analytics and future focus will be more around the value that the device provides to the user.
 

Q4 2016 Emerging Technologies to Watch in 2017

The Lux Research team is constantly uncovering innovative ideas – novel technologies, creative new business models, and emerging growth opportunities. But while it's easy to find reports of new technologies that are purported to be transformative, they're often lacking the context or critical analysis to understand the real market opportunities, and the strategies to capitalize on them. In contrast, when a Lux analyst spots a new idea, her first instinct is to try to break it down, poke holes in it, find out why it won't work – and in many cases, it is does not pass muster. So those that do pass Lux’s vetting process really have something to them, as these are the ideas that can really have an effect on our lives, our businesses, and our world. Each year we challenge the analyst team to say what technology or trend they're following that has the greatest potential to transform the world over the over the next decade. Here are some of the ideas Lux is following as we start 2017.
 

Q4 2016 In the Drivers Seat: Evolution of Interfaces in the Automobile

When it comes to advancements in vehicle technologies, the spotlight tends to fall on what can be seen in action from outside the car or under the hood. Some technologies, however, have to be viewed from the driver’s seat. This report will use historical case studies to develop a framework for assessing interior technology innovations by looking at the relationship between technology drivers, interior technologies, and their purposes.
 

Q1 2015 Information Meets Matter: Following the Data to Find Opportunity

Critical trends in connectivity and intelligence are emerging, captured by buzzwords like “The Internet of Things” and “Big Data”. While the hype is plentiful, actionable strategies for leveraging this trend are not. At the core, these concepts are about embedding intelligence in both objects, and a system of collected objects as a whole – the convergence of information and matter. While exorbitant projections of the market opportunity are readily available, there is urgent need for guidance on how connectivity will drive opportunity across the value chain, and how different players can build a value proposition for their technologies to access the massive untapped opportunity buried beneath the hype. 
 

Distributed Generation
Date Title & Description
Q1 2017 The Cost of Resiliency: Searching for an Economic Case for Grid-Tied Microgrids

Localized on-grid electricity systems that can disconnect from the rest of the grid – called “grid-tied microgrids” – have been gaining momentum in recent years, especially as a tool for resiliency in response to a number of natural disasters around the world. However, these systems are inherently expensive, and their high capital costs often make it difficult to justify adoption. In this report, we analyze the economics of different microgrid configurations, not only for resiliency but also for providing value to the grid. We find that a simple diesel backup generator is the most economical source of resiliency by a long shot, but that using excess capacity within the microgrid to provide grid services can dramatically improve microgrid economics in some markets, though typically not enough to offset their high cost.
 

Q1 2016 Distributed Generation: The Lux Research Taxonomy

Distributed generation (DG) is one the most disruptive trends emerging for the future of the power industry, but there is a tremendous breadth of technologies and applications that can play a role. This taxonomy report puts structure to this landscape, organizing the DG picture into its technologies – both for generation and integration – along with its applications. We find that there is particular diversity in the solar and energy storage technologies, but also in the rapidly emerging opportunity for software. This includes not just a variety of simulation and modeling tools, but also management systems for distributed systems and other possible iterations for the future of the grid. Finally, we also highlight representative companies that are present in the various nodes of our DG taxonomy, with links to those that we have done full analyses of via our Lux Research company profile evaluation methodology.
 

Q2 2016 Supermajor Darwinism: What Big Oil Can and Cannot Do About Total's Billion-Dollar Battery Move

Total is now the first oil supermajor to make a billion-dollar bet on energy storage, buying Saft. Much integration work remains, particularly with Total’s SunPower solar investment, but as this study shows, Total’s great move leaves its competitors with few options to respond: Unlike other sprawling suppliers, Saft is uniquely focused on batteries, making it a relatively cheap and tidy acquisition. It is Total’s compatriot too, which can help speed integration. Also, Saft already enjoys a strong position in the nascent grid storage space. How can Total’s competitors respond? As Darwinism looms for the future of power, other oil supermajors looking to evolve must choose among more expensive, broader battery players. But they should still act, as waiting longer and doing nothing would be an even worse outcome: The worthwhile battery companies continue to gain value and build momentum with each passing day, as are other opportunities toward a distributed generation future.
 

Q2 2016 Powering the Future: Evaluating the Contenders That Aim to Rule the Distributed Grid

The traditional power industry – underpinned by large, distant, fuel-burning plants and transmission over long distances to reach end users – is on the cusp of serious disruption from distributed generation (DG). However, what type of entity or partnership will emerge to really challenge utilities and other incumbents remains unclear for many. We use a new methodology to evaluate emerging DG players using both technical value and business execution criteria, and find that a specific set of installers and developers of renewables are well placed to succeed, as well as a handful of large industrial conglomerates. In most of these cases, select partnerships to bolster technical breadth are key, including working with leading DG startups that we discuss.
 

Q2 2016 Dinosaurs and Pioneers: Benchmarking Progress and Identifying New Opportunities for the Utility of the Future

Electric utilities today are faced with unprecedented challenges, and their fundamental business model is at risk. Utilities have reacted in different ways, with some rebelling against change while others proactively find ways to adapt to a new status quo. In this report, we benchmark the world’s most important utilities in their progress toward becoming “utilities of the future,” revealing that a handful of European utilities are leading the pack. We also use investment and acquisition data to gain insight into how utilities see their futures, and we find that deals involving energy storage and software have becoming increasingly common in recent years. Finally, we explore four major revenue streams that utilities are pursuing beyond their core business: commercial and industrial energy management, distributed generation systems integration, rural electrification, and electric vehicle charging.
 

Q3 2016 Getting More Out of Distributed Resources: Finding Technology and Strategy Differentiation in Virtual Power Plants

Virtual power plants (VPPs) – aggregations of distributed generation, storage, and loads – have great potential as tools to balance supply and demand in the face of increasing renewables and recover additional value from underutilized energy assets. However, the developer landscape is crowded, and discerning between VPP technology platforms can be challenging. We develop a framework for comparing VPP platforms on their deployment scale and flexibility, and find that few have reached meaningful scale today, and even fewer have done so with highly flexible platforms. We also highlight examples of business model differentiation among VPP operators.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q4 2016 Beyond Finance: Blockchain’s Impact on the Power Sector

After making waves across the financial services industry, blockchain is now poised to disrupt several other industries. Developers are porting the technology onto new use cases, and the power sector has emerged as an early leader for blockchain development. However, numerous obstacles remain before blockchain becomes a mainstream technology. In this report, we take a deep look at the potential impact of blockchain in the power industry, focusing on power transactions. Additionally, we examine the key players in the emerging blockchain landscape, the underlying mechanisms that make blockchains work, drivers for new blockchain applications, and challenges that blockchain needs to overcome to reach its full potential.
 

Q4 2016 Emerging Technologies to Watch in 2017

The Lux Research team is constantly uncovering innovative ideas – novel technologies, creative new business models, and emerging growth opportunities. But while it's easy to find reports of new technologies that are purported to be transformative, they're often lacking the context or critical analysis to understand the real market opportunities, and the strategies to capitalize on them. In contrast, when a Lux analyst spots a new idea, her first instinct is to try to break it down, poke holes in it, find out why it won't work – and in many cases, it is does not pass muster. So those that do pass Lux’s vetting process really have something to them, as these are the ideas that can really have an effect on our lives, our businesses, and our world. Each year we challenge the analyst team to say what technology or trend they're following that has the greatest potential to transform the world over the over the next decade. Here are some of the ideas Lux is following as we start 2017.
 

Digital Health and Wellness
Date Title & Description
Q1 2016 The Digital Health and Wellness Taxonomy Shows Incumbent Medtronic’s Gaps and Opportunities for New Entrants

Building a coherent taxonomy provides clarity on the state of technology today, as well as helps identify the opportunities moving forward. Digital health and wellness (DHW) relies on multidisciplinary expertise across numerous areas, including device design and manufacturing, applications, and regulatory and reimbursement. This report builds a concise taxonomy for the DHW industry to provide corporations with a backbone for identifying opportunities for innovation in both development and application of new technologies in a rapidly growing space. Through a series of three examples, we illustrate the utility of taxonomy maps: by comparing the DHW footprints of Medtronic and Withings; by showing how the ecosystem built around Qualcomm’s 2net platform can challenge Medtronic’s dominance over smaller players; and subsequently, by identifying gaps in Qualcomm’s and Medtronic’s coverage that translate into opportunities for new entrants.
 

Q1 2016 A Byte a Day: How Digital Health Redraws Health Care and Uncovers Opportunities

While traditional medicine puts an emphasis on affected organs or systems, digital solutions are exploiting commonalities between seemingly unrelated medical conditions. These commonalities are redrawing the disease landscape, and are impacting medical care and disease management. We establish a disease-connection framework by identifying six key facets of digital health – monitoring, diagnostics, predictive analytics, therapeutics, assistive technology, and behavior augmentation. We overlay disease connections on top of a technology maturity and crowding analysis to form a framework that could be applied to any set of diseases. With this framework, we identify potential applications for existing solutions, technological challenges, and upcoming shifts in business models. Based on the analysis, we outline possible changes in supply chains and technology development, and we re-imagine the future hospital.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q2 2016 From Aging in Place to Clinical Trials: Lowering Health Care Costs With Medication Adherence

Medication nonadherence has a significant negative impact on disease prevention and treatment; from increasing the likelihood of preventable disease progression and hospitalizations to avoidable doctor and emergency room visits, nonadherence can adversely affect patients’ long-term health and increase costs of care. With the rapidly growing elderly population disproportionally affected by this issue, finding ways to promote better adherence can significantly reduce potential complications and allow elderly to independently age in place. In this report, we evaluate the different medication adherence technologies and how they satisfy the needs of the key stakeholders – patients, physicians, pharma, and payers. Through this analysis, we determine that smart delivery technologies stand the best chance of having a positive impact on increasing medication adherence, but still require technology improvements to achieve widespread adoption.
 

Q3 2016 Industrial Big Data and Analytics in Digital Health

A profusion of patient sensors is joining advances in quantitative medicine and systems biology, giving health care providers more data than they can effectively manage. But the opportunities – from cost reduction to personalized medicine – are compelling enough to keep the big data dream alive. This report looks at the use cases, the business case for them, and the landscape of vendors that can help health care industry players achieve their goals.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q4 2016 Innovation in Smart Textiles Moves from Materials to Analytics

Wearable electronics are moving beyond wrist worn devices into other forms of apparel that collect data, analyze it, and act on the insight. In this report, we explore how smart apparel is made smart via various means of sensor integration. Smart apparel can have sensors incorporated via weaving, printing or integration of standalone sensors, that will lead to varying levels of obtrusiveness, sensor function, flexibility, and washability,. While the sensor integration may vary, the subsequent development steps remain the same, with capabilities mostly limited by removable clips. Most devices currently on the market have removable electronic clips that cannot be washed. Future innovations will more seamlessly integrate these components via printing and weaving rather than attaching standalone sensors. While the current innovation is occurring in hardware, future innovation will move beyond the hardware to the analytics and future focus will be more around the value that the device provides to the user.
 

Q4 2016 Understanding the $5.6 Billion in Venture Capital Invested in Digital Health and Wellness

Between 2005 and 2016 Q2, venture capitalists have invested $5.6 billion in digital health and wellness startups. With $1.2 billion invested through Q2, 2016 is on track to break the previous record of $1.3 billion set in 2014. To understand the trends in digital health and wellness venture capital investment, we tracked the investments by category, years since start-up’s founding, and corporate venture capital (CVC) activity. While monitoring has received the most funding overall, attention is beginning to shift to new areas – namely analytics. Intel is the leading digital health and wellness CVC, having invested nine digital health and wellness companies, covering a diverse range of six different categories.
 

Q4 2016 Emerging Technologies to Watch in 2017

The Lux Research team is constantly uncovering innovative ideas – novel technologies, creative new business models, and emerging growth opportunities. But while it's easy to find reports of new technologies that are purported to be transformative, they're often lacking the context or critical analysis to understand the real market opportunities, and the strategies to capitalize on them. In contrast, when a Lux analyst spots a new idea, her first instinct is to try to break it down, poke holes in it, find out why it won't work – and in many cases, it is does not pass muster. So those that do pass Lux’s vetting process really have something to them, as these are the ideas that can really have an effect on our lives, our businesses, and our world. Each year we challenge the analyst team to say what technology or trend they're following that has the greatest potential to transform the world over the over the next decade. Here are some of the ideas Lux is following as we start 2017.
 

Food and Nutrition
Date Title & Description
Q1 2016 Cereal Loses Crunch as Breakfast Alternatives Take Over

Shifting consumer behavior and demographics are changing the breakfast foods landscape. Growth of cereal sales continue to decline while alternative breakfast foods see increasing demands, challenging incumbents to adapt using new strategies and presenting opportunities for entrants in the alternative space. This report details the landscape of the breakfast foods market, analyzes two example use cases for alternative breakfast foods, and presents recommendations for players to manage the changing breakfast landscape.
 

Q2 2016 Coming Clean with Packaging: Active Packaging Technologies Tackle the Clean Label Challenge

Consumers’ pressure for clean label food and beverage formulations is shifting the industry away from using chemical preservatives and artificial ingredients. Players in this space look to packaging technologies as one approach to addressing this challenge while maintaining the quality and safety of their products. We looked at commercially available packaging solutions and early stage developments to identify packaging technologies capable of meeting preservation needs while allowing the removal of traditionally used preservatives that consumers now consider undesirable.
 

Q2 2016 Analytics in Food Security and Sustainability

Food security and food sustainability are becoming exceedingly important in the food and agricultural sectors. With it, life cycle assessments (LCA) are turning critical for identifying risks and opportunities. However, today’s LCA approaches suffer from a number of shortcomings that prevent the implementation of food security and sustainability in strategic and tactical product decisions. Data collection, analytics and interpretation remain a challenge across the board, coupled with high cost. This webinar will review approaches to address these issues as well as detail specific case studies of product selection and improvements.

 

Q3 2016 Keeping It Fresh: Improving Cold Chain Outcomes With Sensor Platforms

Cold supply chains are imperfect and prone to complications that damage brands and result in millions of dollars of product losses. Many of these issues stem from problems occuring during transit and at handoffs. The key factor that can damage cold goods is temperature, but other factors – like light, shock, and humidity – can also harm cold products. To prevent damages, enterprises can deploy real-time monitoring platforms that can alert operators before product is lost. In this report, we developed payback models for monitoring systems in five different use cases. We found that high-value products, like vaccines, recognize very positive paybacks through investment in more advanced monitoring systems. Less valuable products, like bulk commodity foods, require high loss rates to create a strong business case for next generation monitoring solutions.
 

Q4 2016 Finding a Winning Formula for Alternative Proteins

As alternative protein becomes a key solution to meeting rising global protein demands, developers must navigate the variety of sources available and address challenges to adoption. Lux identifies nutritional composition, commercialization, and formulation factors as three major hurdles faced by developers looking to commercialize nascent alternative proteins. This report analyzes potential plant-based protein sources on several nutritional and commercialization factors and identifies innovative formulation solutions emerging across the protein production value-chain.
 

Q4 2016 Emerging Technologies to Watch in 2017

The Lux Research team is constantly uncovering innovative ideas – novel technologies, creative new business models, and emerging growth opportunities. But while it's easy to find reports of new technologies that are purported to be transformative, they're often lacking the context or critical analysis to understand the real market opportunities, and the strategies to capitalize on them. In contrast, when a Lux analyst spots a new idea, her first instinct is to try to break it down, poke holes in it, find out why it won't work – and in many cases, it is does not pass muster. So those that do pass Lux’s vetting process really have something to them, as these are the ideas that can really have an effect on our lives, our businesses, and our world. Each year we challenge the analyst team to say what technology or trend they're following that has the greatest potential to transform the world over the over the next decade. Here are some of the ideas Lux is following as we start 2017.
 

Q1 2015 Harnessing the Microbiome for a Better Future: Probiotics Storm the Infant Formula Market

Despite “breast is best” campaigns and rising breastfeeding rates, the $20.5 billion global infant formula market is here to stay, with approximately 78 million infants utilizing infant formula in 2014 alone. As science advances and researchers deepen their understanding of the complexity of mother's milk, developers of infant formula strive to mimic human breast milk as closely as possible. However, we now know infant formula falls short, as the majority of formulas lack probiotics – live microorganisms thought to have crucial functions in the optimal development of infants that are present in natural mother's milk. This report forecasts the adoption of probiotics in the infant formula market in the coming decade.
 

Q1 2015 Finding the Emerging Technologies That Will Shape the World

The Lux Research team is constantly uncovering innovative ideas – novel technologies, creative new business models, and emerging growth opportunities. But while reports of new technologies purported to be transformative can be found in many places, they're often lacking the context or critical analysis to understand the real market opportunities, and the strategies to capitalize on them. In contrast, when a Lux analyst spots a new idea, her first instinct is to try to break it down, poke holes in it, find out why it won't work – and in many cases, it is does not pass muster. So those that do pass Lux’s vetting process really have something to them, as these are the ideas that can really have an effect on our lives, our businesses, and our world. From time to time we challenge the analyst team to give the idea from their research – whether it's a theme, a trend, a market, a company, a technology – that they think will have the biggest impact over the next five to 10 years. Here's some of the ideas Lux is following as we start 2015.
 

Q2 2015 Introducing the New Mantra of the Food Industry: Precision Nutrition

The food industry must continually reinvent itself to stay relevant within the fast-moving consumer goods market. As the field of food science grows and consumer sentiments shift, players must make strategy realignments in order to stay current and appealing within the shifting market. With these changes in mind, Lux identifies a new paradigm in the food industry: precision nutrition. The emergence of precision nutrition opens the door to opportunities in the food industry and adjacent markets alike. The aspiration of holistic health via the development of technological advances requires an all-inclusive industry solution. More specifically, innovations across multiple disciplines must continue to be developed and optimized to fully reach the potential that precision nutrition offers.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Alternative Fuels
Date Title & Description
Q1 2016 Driving Down Emissions: Achieving CO² Emissions Reduction Goals through Biofuels and Alternative Fuel Vehicles

Global warming returns to center stage as a global agreement on climate change was reached at 21st session of the Conference of the Parties (COP21). Of 34 billion tons (GT) of global CO2 emissions in 2015, road transportation made up 5.7 GT and has steadily increased over the years. With Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) pledges from nations accounting for nearly 99% of global yearly CO2 emissions, significant strides must be made in biofuels and alternative fuel vehicles to achieve the goal set for 2030. The transition of the biofuels industry towards low-carbon biofuels in combination with market penetration of alternative fuel vehicles and improved vehicle technologies are pivotal in reducing global road transportation CO2 emissions.
 

Q1 2016 Sizing Down: Drivers and Economics for Small-scale GTL

Several major factors have driven innovation in the small-scale gas-to-liquids (GTL) space, including horizontal drilling and multi-stage fracking to release previously untapped shale gas reserves and stricter regulations to reduce flaring. For this report we built a detailed cost model to analyze the economic viability for small-scale GTL. We then use case studies on five players in the small-scale GTL space to identify key technology improvements necessary for cost parity at commercial scale.
 

Q1 2016 Alternative Fuels Year in Review: The Five Biggest Developments of 2015, and Five to Watch in 2016 and Beyond

As we move into 2016, Lux Research's Alternative Fuels team looks back at five major developments of 2015 and their impact on the alternative fuels industry. The team also looks forward to what will be key trends to watch in 2016 and beyond. While some developments will immediately influence the industry, other emerging trends have long-term and broader implications. As the alternative fuels industry continues to evolve, we identify the technologies and drivers that will shape the future of the space.
 

Q1 2016 Uncovering the Cost of Cellulosic Ethanol Production

With six major cellulosic ethanol projects online, there have been very few details regarding the production costs of each of these facilities and their respective technologies. For this report, we built a comprehensive cost model to project production costs of the six major cellulosic ethanol projects. We analyzed six cellulosic feedstocks - corn stover, empty fruit bunches, sugarcane bagasse, sugarcane straw, wheat straw, and wood - and three pretreatment technologies - dilute acid, steam explosion, and alkaline. We then identified key areas of improvement along the cellulosic ethanol process with the most significant impact on cellulosic ethanol production cost.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q2 2016 Biojet Fuel Technology Roadmap

Rapid industry growth will drive global aviation CO2 emissions up from 0.6 billion tons (GT) in 2015 to 2.1 GT in 2050. Yet the aviation industry is committed to a 50% reduction in CO2 emissions in 2050 compared to 2005. The industry must turn to biojet fuel, which will play the largest role in achieving this ambitious goal. Currently, four different pathways are certified for commercial use – some promising, others less so. Four more pathways are under development and quickly emerging, though they also must overcome hurdles to reach commercial success. In this report, we examine 15 biojet fuel companies utilizing a wide range of feedstocks and conversion technologies and identify the near-, mid-, and long-term winners capable of delivering truly cost-competitive biojet fuel to a fuel-hungry industry.
 

Q4 2016 Biofuels Outlook 2022: The Dawn of a New Era in Global Biofuel Capacity Expansion

Global biofuel capacity is projected to grow to 67.2 billion gallons per year (BGY) in 2022, with first-generation biofuels continuing to dominate – albeit at a much slower pace than before. In the next six years, a shift in technologies for new capacity expansion targeting non-food crop-based feedstocks and advanced biofuels will drive industry growth. Emerging thermochemical and catalytic technologies surpass bioconversion processes to make up over half of new capacity deployment for the first time in the biofuel industry’s history. Technologies like hydrotreatment and gasification will drive long-term growth and outcompete others for feedstock supply and fuel market share. A new era of technology commercialization brings the global biofuels industry to the cusp of a tipping point set to alter the future biofuels landscape as new facilities target low-carbon and high-performance drop-in biofuels.
 

Q4 2016 Identifying Winners in Low-Carbon Fuels

Emissions reduction goals are setting in motion a paradigm shift in the alternative fuels industry and driving the emergence of low-carbon fuels. No longer will the alternative fuels industry be about sheer volumes and blending mandates. There will be no single preferred feedstock, conversion process, or final fuel product. Instead, well-to-wheel analysis will drive technology agnostic regulations and policies as they are formed from the perspective of the fuel's carbon intensity. In this report, we examine 470 fuel pathways in California Air Resources Board's (CARB) Low-Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) to identify key trends, process improvements, technology developments, and opportunities in low-carbon fuels.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q4 2016 Emerging Technologies to Watch in 2017

The Lux Research team is constantly uncovering innovative ideas – novel technologies, creative new business models, and emerging growth opportunities. But while it's easy to find reports of new technologies that are purported to be transformative, they're often lacking the context or critical analysis to understand the real market opportunities, and the strategies to capitalize on them. In contrast, when a Lux analyst spots a new idea, her first instinct is to try to break it down, poke holes in it, find out why it won't work – and in many cases, it is does not pass muster. So those that do pass Lux’s vetting process really have something to them, as these are the ideas that can really have an effect on our lives, our businesses, and our world. Each year we challenge the analyst team to say what technology or trend they're following that has the greatest potential to transform the world over the over the next decade. Here are some of the ideas Lux is following as we start 2017.
 

Q4 2016 Five Key Takeaways From the U.S. DOE Billion-Ton Report

The U.S. bio-economy is projected to consume 1.2 billion dry MT of biomass by 2040 according to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). We identify five key takeaways from the U.S. DOE’s Billion-Ton Report, calling out high-potential opportunities and pitfalls that are likely to impact projections. The DOE is counting on corn stover as a major source of biomass for cellulosic biofuels. Improved biogas utilization will be a key part of deriving value from waste in the biofuel industry. Algae’s high cost and diminishing capacity by 2040 makes it only a suitable feedstock for high-value bio-based products. The DOE’s projection for commercial consumption of energy crops is overly ambitious. While there is a future for biomass consumption, their ascension will not be nearly as rapid as the DOE projects.
 

Q1 2015 Key Alternative Fuel Companies and Developments in 2015

With low oil prices shaking up the alternative fuels sector, we use the Lux Innovation Grid (LIG) to identify leading companies and the firms positioned for success in 2015. We analyzed companies across seven technology families - algae, anaerobic digestion, biomass to sugar, catalytic conversion, fermentation, gasification, and pyrolysis - and three novel feedstocks - cellulosic feedstocks, gas feedstocks, and waste feedstocks - identifying those that are leading today, and positioned to make significant progress in 2015, as well as those technology developers that need either technological advancement or an execution improvement to avoid failure.

 

Q1 2015 Guiding Through the Dynamics of China's Alternative Fuels Market

China's fast-growing energy demand and heavy reliance on foreign oil imports bring huge opportunity to the alternative transportation fuel market. The last decade has seen the start of fast growth and industry diversification. However, due to the energy dominance by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and the sensitivity associated with government regulation and feedstock dynamics, navigating the market opportunities varies by subcategory. We herein analyzed the challenges and the opportunities along the industry value chain in four categories, namely, fuel ethanol, alternative diesel and jet fuel, natural gas vehicles (NGVs), and others. With the government’s efforts to strengthen regulations and privatizing distribution channels, opportunities are open to foreign developers with partnerships to key Chinese players, both SOEs and private-sector players, in a cleaner China.
 

Q1 2015 Finding the Emerging Technologies That Will Shape the World

The Lux Research team is constantly uncovering innovative ideas – novel technologies, creative new business models, and emerging growth opportunities. But while reports of new technologies purported to be transformative can be found in many places, they're often lacking the context or critical analysis to understand the real market opportunities, and the strategies to capitalize on them. In contrast, when a Lux analyst spots a new idea, her first instinct is to try to break it down, poke holes in it, find out why it won't work – and in many cases, it is does not pass muster. So those that do pass Lux’s vetting process really have something to them, as these are the ideas that can really have an effect on our lives, our businesses, and our world. From time to time we challenge the analyst team to give the idea from their research – whether it's a theme, a trend, a market, a company, a technology – that they think will have the biggest impact over the next five to 10 years. Here's some of the ideas Lux is following as we start 2015.
 

Q2 2015 How Alternative Fuel Companies Will Compete With $50 Oil

As oil price dropped from $100 per barrel to $50 per barrel in the last year, the ability of alternative fuel producers to compete has taken a major hit. In this report, we examine 25 companies claiming cost competitiveness with $50 per barrel oil, digging into their technologies, feedstocks, and commercial plans to determine whether they are likely or unlikely to compete with cheap oil.
 

Q3 2015 CO2 Conversion to Fuels and Chemicals

Converting carbon dioxide to fuels and chemicals would accomplish the dual goal of mitigating carbon dioxide emissions and accessing cheap feedstock for fuel and chemical production. However, converting carbon dioxide into useful products is technically challenging and most efforts are still at very early stage. This report outlines the key technologies for converting CO2 into useful chemicals and fuels, and identifies the leading companies and universities working to make CO2 conversion a reality.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Sustainable Building Materials
Date Title & Description
Q1 2016 Sustainable Building Materials Year in Review: The Five Biggest Developments of 2015, and Five to Watch in 2016 and Beyond

As we move into 2016, Lux Research's Sustainable Building Materials team looks back at five major developments of 2015 and their impact on the building and construction industry. The team also looks forward to what will be key trends to watch in 2016 and beyond. While some developments will immediately influence the industry, other emerging trends have long-term and broader implications. We found that building and construction industry is currently under transition and integration, which are driven by innovations within and at the border of this industry.
 

Q1 2016 Creating and Capturing Value from LCA Improvements: De-materializing the Building Materials Sector

How can sustainability inspire new materials innovations that will capture the implicit value of more sustainable buildings? This report looks in detail at life-cycle analysis of buildings to find guidelines for optimizing product development and business models to capture value from sustainability innovations. Making materials easily replaceable and recyclable is key to capturing more value from material innovations in the building and construction sector.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q2 2016 Wools Are Here to Stay, Foams Under Pressure: Building Envelope Insulation Update 2016

This report looks at recent developments in new insulation materials and radiation management options for the building envelope. Rock wool and glass wool are still solid solutions with a very good price / performance ratio. Foams, such PU or PS however are vulnerable to be disrupted by developments like aerogels. Radiation management is attracting much more attention and the first dynamic materials to manage infrared transparency have reached the market. The report provides market size estimates for the various technologies.
 

Q2 2016 Observing Trends From VC Investment Activities to Material Recycling Fields

Based on observation on venture capital investment activities to material recycling fields in the past five years, this report identifies investment patterns and technology hotspots in the four segments of recycling value chain, including waste collection, sorting, processing, and end product manufacturing. Moreover, this report analyzes the correlation between funding stage, technology and value chain segment, and provides clients the insight about trend of material recycling and investment opportunities in the short term future.
 

Q3 2016 Future Building Fabrication: How Prefabrication Will Integrate with Emerging Technologies to Shape Construction

Prefabrication is now opening a multi-billion dollar global opportunity in construction. Even though prefabrication delivers shorter construction periods and generates less waste than conventional onsite construction, it was not dominant in the construction sector in the past. However, recent technology innovations (like design software and 3D printing) and macroeconomic factors (like the cost structure of construction projects) all favor accelerating growth of prefabrication. How is this changing the value chain and who can benefit from these developments? How will these changes affect the role of construction firms, engineering companies and architects and creates opportunities for new participants, like software companies and OEMs?

Q4 2016 Electrifying the Walls: Growing Competition in Building-Integrated Photovoltaics

Conventional distributed photovoltaic systems are confined to rooftops, requiring additional hardware to be mounted on existing building materials. Not only does this increase the cost of systems, but it also results in an unaesthetic structure sitting above a house's roof line or is unable to utilize the larger facade area of tall commercial buildings. Numerous companies have attempted to address these problems by presenting a plethora of building-integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) systems. Despite the attention, the BIPV market has remained a relatively niche market with most activity focused in Europe. There has yet to emerge a compelling product to prompt a convergence of the solar and construction industries. We examine multiple photovoltaic technology solutions that can be applied to roofs, facades, and windows, identifying what is most likely to become economically competitive and what type of systems will appears.
 

Q4 2016 Beyond Material Innovations: How Construction Technologies for Digitization and Automation Will Compete and Influence the Industry

The building construction industry sees increasing disruptions related to digitization and automation of specific works related to building design, component prefabrication, onsite assembling, and maintenance and demolition. This report identified the technologies supporting these disruptions, evaluated their competition positions in respective markets, and their influence on the future of construction works. Technologies that can win the immediate competition against incumbent solutions are mainly related to software (such as simulation software) and data collection solutions (such as 3D scanning) to improve work and process. Technologies with potential to become prominent in the short-term future have clear advantages and solvable disadvantages for either digitization (such as augmented reality for onsite works) or automation (such as offsite 3D printing). Behind all these technologies is building information modeling (BIM), which enables data exchange and collaboration so that it is becoming the linkage among all future construction works. Digitization and automation based on BIM will be an inevitable trend in the future construction.
 

Q4 2016 Seeing Through the Haze: Identifying Challenges and Opportunities in the Indoor Air Quality Management Market

Air pollution is a rising topic among developed and developing countries, and it forms great challenges to outdoor and indoor air quality management. This report will focus on indoor air quality management, because people, on average, spend 90% of their time in buildings, and because indoor air quality is responsible for 5.5 million deaths every year worldwide. In this report, we examine the sources and effects of air pollutants, and summarize the incumbent technologies that are improving indoor air quality by targeting different air pollutants. Then, we observe recent innovations related to indoor air quality monitoring and purification with different investment stage and product offerings, and finally identify challenges and opportunities in terms of innovations, functionality, and geographic markets.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q4 2016 Thinking Outside the Box: Identifying Materials Innovations in Packaging

Packaging industry requires innovations, but consumer preferences present complex dichotomies between performance and packaging waste. Emerging developers are targeting new materials that improve performance and/or end-of-life. In this report, we analyze emerging additives, coatings, thermal management materials, and structural materials on performance and end-of-life and highlight companies developing these materials. We then identify the most promising materials for packaging, as well as mid-term and long-term packaging options.
 

Q4 2016 Emerging Technologies to Watch in 2017

The Lux Research team is constantly uncovering innovative ideas – novel technologies, creative new business models, and emerging growth opportunities. But while it's easy to find reports of new technologies that are purported to be transformative, they're often lacking the context or critical analysis to understand the real market opportunities, and the strategies to capitalize on them. In contrast, when a Lux analyst spots a new idea, her first instinct is to try to break it down, poke holes in it, find out why it won't work – and in many cases, it is does not pass muster. So those that do pass Lux’s vetting process really have something to them, as these are the ideas that can really have an effect on our lives, our businesses, and our world. Each year we challenge the analyst team to say what technology or trend they're following that has the greatest potential to transform the world over the over the next decade. Here are some of the ideas Lux is following as we start 2017.
 

Q3 2015 Mapping Advanced Insulation Materials to Markets: Assessing Aerogel, Vacuum Insulation Panel, and Phase-Change Material Opportunities Beyond Building Applications

Among insulation materials, aerogel, vacuum insulation panels (VIPs), and phase-change materials (PCMs) stand out due to extremely low thermal conductivity or the ability to absorb and release thermal energy. Currently, the majority of market demand on these three solutions is for non-building applications, which have received generous attention and interest from large corporations, start-ups, and investors alike. We assess the various application segments for these advanced insulation materials, analyze the dynamics of the leading suppliers, and project market growth over the next five years. Among our findings, industrial equipment will continue dominating the aerogel market, driven by large unmet needs beyond the already-penetrated oil and gas industry. VIPs will see strong growth in refrigeration and thermal packaging, but industrial insulation will move slowly due to the technical barriers of VIP melting point and shape adjustment. Logistics applications will continue to lead the PCM market, while increasing need for better thermal management solutions in electronic devices will drive growth in this segment.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Electronic User Interfaces
Date Title & Description
Q1 2016 Future of Interaction: Using a Taxonomy to Understand Apple’s, Google’s, and Microsoft’s Electronic User Interface Bets

High-resolution liquid crystal displays (LCDs) and organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs), along with multitouch capacitive touch screens, have formed the foundation of electronic user interfaces (EUIs) in the mobile era. However, with the evolution of mobile devices and the emergence of the Internet of Things (IoT), new types of technologies – from displays to controls like speech and gesture – offer the promise of Natural or Zero User Interfaces. Understanding the myriad of EUI choices and how the space will evolve is no easy task, so we developed taxonomy around the three primary factors for EUIs – technology, use case, and usability. We then apply the taxonomy to the EUI portfolios of Apple, Google, and Microsoft to understand the EUI similarities and divergences of the device of the future.
 

 

Q2 2016 2016 Will Break All Electronic User Interfaces VC Funding Records: Analyzing the Trends and Leaders From the $7 Billion Invested

Venture capital (VC) firms have invested $7 billion into electronic user interface (EUI) technologies, and with $1.1 billion invested in Q1, 2016 will shatter the annual record of $1.3 billion set in 2014. While the amount of funding continues to increase, the technologies receiving the funding have evolved significantly, as newcomers like augmented and virtual reality have been garnering much of the funding over the past several years. In addition, those providing funding have also been changing, as corporate venture capital (CVC) has become more active in recent years, participating in more than 70 funding rounds since 2014. Intel, Samsung, Qualcomm, Google, and BASF were the most active CVCs, but their portfolios vary widely as, for example, Google and Samsung made investments throughout the virtual reality value chain, while Intel maintains a broader portfolio across 2D displays, augmented reality, voice controls, touch controls, and virtual reality.
 

Q3 2016 Virtual Reality Heats-Up: Why Oculus Rift and Samsung VR's Days on Top Are Numbered

Virtual reality (VR) has created a lot of excitement in leading tech companies like Facebook, Google, and Samsung, as well as early-stage startups and users like Fox Broadcasting and the NY Times. However, while VR has a lot to promise, it remains unclear how people can actually use VR and whether today’s VR technology can meet user needs. In this report, we analyze the more than 40 VR use cases deployed today. We found content complexity and the level of interaction are the two key dimensions, and categorized them into four categories – 2D image/video, real-time processed 3D video, virtual exploration, and full immersion. We then analyzed the display and ease of use for VR hardware and the nearly 100 VR headsets, which include both smartphone-based and those with built-in displays, and found that while Oculus Rift stands out as the best device with a built-in display on the market today, emerging devices like Sulon Q and Star VR are poised to beat it out. In addition, for smartphone-based headsets, while Samsung Gear VR grabs the most attention, Pinch VR and Freefly VR perform better in terms of ease of use and display, respectively.
 

Q4 2016 In the Drivers Seat: Evolution of Interfaces in the Automobile

When it comes to advancements in vehicle technologies, the spotlight tends to fall on what can be seen in action from outside the car or under the hood. Some technologies, however, have to be viewed from the driver’s seat. This report will use historical case studies to develop a framework for assessing interior technology innovations by looking at the relationship between technology drivers, interior technologies, and their purposes.
 

Q4 2016 Emerging Technologies to Watch in 2017

The Lux Research team is constantly uncovering innovative ideas – novel technologies, creative new business models, and emerging growth opportunities. But while it's easy to find reports of new technologies that are purported to be transformative, they're often lacking the context or critical analysis to understand the real market opportunities, and the strategies to capitalize on them. In contrast, when a Lux analyst spots a new idea, her first instinct is to try to break it down, poke holes in it, find out why it won't work – and in many cases, it is does not pass muster. So those that do pass Lux’s vetting process really have something to them, as these are the ideas that can really have an effect on our lives, our businesses, and our world. Each year we challenge the analyst team to say what technology or trend they're following that has the greatest potential to transform the world over the over the next decade. Here are some of the ideas Lux is following as we start 2017.
 

Bio-based Materials and Chemicals
Date Title & Description
Q1 2016 Bio-Based Materials and Chemicals in Review: Key Trends in 2015 and What to Watch in 2016

 
As the Bio-based Materials and Chemicals industry enters 2016, it is important to look back on 2015 to see the effects of sustained low oil prices and how the industry responded. This report looks back at the noteworthy financial, scale up, and commercialization events within the Bio-based Materials and Chemicals space throughout 2015 and calls out what to watch in 2016. We take a detailed look at the acquisitions, investments, scale ups, commercialization activities, and company realignments from the small and large players in the space. From there, we assess what elements of the industry will shape the future.
 

 

Q1 2016 Assessing Lignin-based Material Innovations

Lignin is one of the most abundant bio-based materials in nature, and availability is only set to increase as more biorefineries that convert biomass to biofuels and bio-based chemicals ramp up and come online. Due to its diversity and complex structure, lignin can be used as a starting point for various chemical classes, though materials are among the most attractive opportunities. However, converting lignin to such high-value materials – including plastic composites, rubber composites, adhesives, adsorbents, carbon fiber, and carbon nanotubes (CNTs) – is rife with challenges and opportunities. This report assesses these lignin-derived materials, providing a technical overview, value assessment, developer landscape, and final analysis for each, along with recommendations for suppliers and offtakers.
 

 

Q2 2016 10 Global Hotspots for Bio-based Material and Chemical Innovation

The Bio-based Material and Chemical (BBMC) industry spans the globe, with innovation and commercialization being driven by companies of all sizes, from early stage startups to large multinationals. This report analyzes the startup landscape and commercialization focused market announcements within the BBMC space to identify the top 10 global hotspots for BBMC innovation. In addition, this report assesses the global picture to determine trends, lessons learned, and calls out specific case studies of note.
 

Q2 2016 Hunting for Value and Performance in the Bio-Based Materials and Chemicals Space

Bio-based Materials and Chemicals (BBMC) often suffer from a bad reputation, thought by many to be of poorer quality and/or more expensive than their petroleum-based counterparts. However, the reality is that BBMC products can actually perform better than incumbents, and coupling promising innovations with smart business execution can create real value. This report identifies several technology families and areas of application within the BBMC space that offer value and performance – including bio-based advanced materials, adhesives, coatings, lubricants, personal care and cosmetics, and packaging – and assesses the leading start-ups and strategic opportunities in each segment.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q3 2016 Navigating the Web of Bio-Based Performance Materials

Bio-based performance materials (bioperformance materials), such as nanocrystalline cellulose (NCC) and spider silk, have received considerable hype for their impressive mechanical properties. In this report, we evaluate these materials and their paths to commercialization to determine whether or not the hype is justified. Moreover, we identify and evaluate compelling properties shared by emerging bioperformance materials, self-assembly, self-healing, and structural color, to assess opportunities for long-term development or bio-inspired materials design.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q4 2016 Thinking Outside the Box: Identifying Materials Innovations in Packaging

Packaging industry requires innovations, but consumer preferences present complex dichotomies between performance and packaging waste. Emerging developers are targeting new materials that improve performance and/or end-of-life. In this report, we analyze emerging additives, coatings, thermal management materials, and structural materials on performance and end-of-life and highlight companies developing these materials. We then identify the most promising materials for packaging, as well as mid-term and long-term packaging options.
 

Q4 2016 Emerging Technologies to Watch in 2017

The Lux Research team is constantly uncovering innovative ideas – novel technologies, creative new business models, and emerging growth opportunities. But while it's easy to find reports of new technologies that are purported to be transformative, they're often lacking the context or critical analysis to understand the real market opportunities, and the strategies to capitalize on them. In contrast, when a Lux analyst spots a new idea, her first instinct is to try to break it down, poke holes in it, find out why it won't work – and in many cases, it is does not pass muster. So those that do pass Lux’s vetting process really have something to them, as these are the ideas that can really have an effect on our lives, our businesses, and our world. Each year we challenge the analyst team to say what technology or trend they're following that has the greatest potential to transform the world over the over the next decade. Here are some of the ideas Lux is following as we start 2017.
 

Q4 2016 Show Me the Money: Where Is Venture Capital Placing Bets in Bio-based?

From 2010 to 2015, the bio-based materials and chemicals (BBMC) industry attracted nearly $9.2 billion in funding from corporates, debts, individuals, private equity, public investment, and venture capital (VC). Notably, VCs have been the major financing driver for start-ups and invested $5.3 billion (57%) of the total investment from 2010 to 2015. In this report, we highlight the trends in types of technologies and products VC’s have funded in the past six years. We then explore how the funding landscape shifts in 2016 and project the next big bets by VCs in 2017.
 

Q1 2015 Comparing the Performance and Addressable Markets for Biopolymers

In this report, we first examine five major markets for polymers: packaging, automotive, construction, textile, and agriculture. We explore the market sizes, key polymers, and performance requirements for each market. Then, we provide an overview of the four major bio-based polymers – polyethylene furanoate (PEF), polybutylene succinate (PBS), polylactic acid (PLA), and polyhydroxyalkanoate (PHA) – and the key players in each field. Finally, we compare the performance parameters of each bio-based polymers vis-a-vis those of two incumbent polymers (PE and PET).
 

Q1 2015 Finding the Emerging Technologies That Will Shape the World

The Lux Research team is constantly uncovering innovative ideas – novel technologies, creative new business models, and emerging growth opportunities. But while reports of new technologies purported to be transformative can be found in many places, they're often lacking the context or critical analysis to understand the real market opportunities, and the strategies to capitalize on them. In contrast, when a Lux analyst spots a new idea, her first instinct is to try to break it down, poke holes in it, find out why it won't work – and in many cases, it is does not pass muster. So those that do pass Lux’s vetting process really have something to them, as these are the ideas that can really have an effect on our lives, our businesses, and our world. From time to time we challenge the analyst team to give the idea from their research – whether it's a theme, a trend, a market, a company, a technology – that they think will have the biggest impact over the next five to 10 years. Here's some of the ideas Lux is following as we start 2015.
 

Q2 2015 Synthetic Biology: Applications and Lessons Learned in the Field of Bio-based Materials and Chemicals

Over the past decade, the use of synthetic biology (or “synbio”) tools fueled the development of a wide variety of technologies to convert biomass and other non-petroleum feedstocks into chemicals and materials. Advances in sequencing and synthesis enabled companies to scale up and put products out on the market. For those looking to enter or expand their presence in the industrial biotechnology space, the lessons learned from the first waves of Bio-based Material and Chemical companies offer valuable insights for planning future endeavors. This report quantifies and analyzes the scale-up timelines seen in the industry. From there, the lessons learned from the first wave of scale-ups are applied to today’s youngest startups – those at lab and pilot scale – to predict the likelihood of each company launching a product in each of the upcoming years.
 

Autonomous Systems 2.0
Date Title & Description
Q1 2016 Robots Come Home - When, How, and Why Domestic Robots Are Entering Our Lives

Wherever you happen to live, better make room for a robot. The first wave of personal robots just hit the open market. We premiere the best of these home companions and their makers, plus future insight on what’s next in their product pipelines and market adoption. This presentation took place in the Robotics track of the 2016 Consumer Technology Association conference, CES.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q2 2016 Robots Rake in Cash - an Analysis of the Recent $1.25 Billion Funding Spree in Automation Companies

The traditional power industry – underpinned by large, distant, fuel-burning plants and transmission over long distances to reach end users – is on the cusp of serious disruption from distributed generation (DG). However, what type of entity or partnership will emerge to really challenge utilities and other incumbents remains unclear for many. We use a new methodology to evaluate emerging DG players using both technical value and business execution criteria, and find that a specific set of installers and developers of renewables are well placed to succeed, as well as a handful of large industrial conglomerates. In most of these cases, select partnerships to bolster technical breadth are key, including working with leading DG startups that we discuss.
 

Q2 2016 Determining Who’s in the Fastlane for Autonomous Vehicles: A Comparison of Automotive OEM Plans for Driverless Development

2016 will be another year dominated by driverless car stories – new entrants, partnerships, test sites, and technological breakthroughs are sure to make headlines in the coming months. Given the media spin cycle it’s easy to assume that the majority of innovation continues to be driven by Google and a handful of entrants such as Tesla. However, every single major OEM is currently putting their stake in the ground. In order to better understand this space and the trajectory of the automotive market we’ve mapped and ranked car companies based on their stated end goal, current progress, and overall strategy.
 

Q3 2016 From Parking Lots in Massachusetts to Highways in Sweden - An Assessment of Autonomous Vehicle Testbeds Around the World

As the race to develop fully autonomous vehicles continues, there has been an increasing number of testbeds springing up across the globe. These testbeds look to trial new automotive technologies in constrained environments that offer real-world conditions. The variety of factors driving these testbeds can be confusing when trying to establish which one right for getting involved. This report assesses testbeds from around the world based on factors such as pilot activity, regulatory health, funding, and technology level to identify opportunities for investments, partnerships, and membership.
 

Q4 2016 Gliding to Green: Re-examining the Competitive Positioning of UAV Companies

A transition is occurring within the drone market, technology is moving from consumer toys towards industrial tools. This report looks at developments in the global unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) space to inform clients of this rapidly expanding technology area. To do so, Lux compares players in the UAV space on the Lux Innovation Grid (LIG) and identifies the top partnership and investment opportunities.
 

Q4 2016 Emerging Technologies to Watch in 2017

The Lux Research team is constantly uncovering innovative ideas – novel technologies, creative new business models, and emerging growth opportunities. But while it's easy to find reports of new technologies that are purported to be transformative, they're often lacking the context or critical analysis to understand the real market opportunities, and the strategies to capitalize on them. In contrast, when a Lux analyst spots a new idea, her first instinct is to try to break it down, poke holes in it, find out why it won't work – and in many cases, it is does not pass muster. So those that do pass Lux’s vetting process really have something to them, as these are the ideas that can really have an effect on our lives, our businesses, and our world. Each year we challenge the analyst team to say what technology or trend they're following that has the greatest potential to transform the world over the over the next decade. Here are some of the ideas Lux is following as we start 2017.
 

Q4 2016 In the Drivers Seat: Evolution of Interfaces in the Automobile

When it comes to advancements in vehicle technologies, the spotlight tends to fall on what can be seen in action from outside the car or under the hood. Some technologies, however, have to be viewed from the driver’s seat. This report will use historical case studies to develop a framework for assessing interior technology innovations by looking at the relationship between technology drivers, interior technologies, and their purposes.
 

Q4 2016 Warehouse Robotics: Assistive Tools, or Replacements for Humans?

Whether for asset tracking, inventory scanning, or material transport; robots are gaining an increasing foothold within modern warehouses. A rapidly expanding e-commerce industry along with steady funding from eager investors has led to a flow of startups. This report will investigate the value of robotics in the warehouse by defining the two schools of thoughts forming in the space: robotics companies for replacing human workers, and robotics companies for assisting human workers.
 

Q1 2015 The $102 Billion Opportunity in Partial Automation for Cars

A review of the levels of automation shows the confusion around NHTSA and SAE levels and why in the end the “level” of automation matters less than groupings of sensors that enable sets of ADAS features. Basic assist features peak in 2020, while enhanced assist and partial autonomy features gain traction, leading to growth of the global driver assist market to $102 billion market by 2030.
 

Q1 2015 Finding the Emerging Technologies That Will Shape the World

The Lux Research team is constantly uncovering innovative ideas – novel technologies, creative new business models, and emerging growth opportunities. But while reports of new technologies purported to be transformative can be found in many places, they're often lacking the context or critical analysis to understand the real market opportunities, and the strategies to capitalize on them. In contrast, when a Lux analyst spots a new idea, her first instinct is to try to break it down, poke holes in it, find out why it won't work – and in many cases, it is does not pass muster. So those that do pass Lux’s vetting process really have something to them, as these are the ideas that can really have an effect on our lives, our businesses, and our world. From time to time we challenge the analyst team to give the idea from their research – whether it's a theme, a trend, a market, a company, a technology – that they think will have the biggest impact over the next five to 10 years. Here's some of the ideas Lux is following as we start 2015.
 

Q2 2015 Flying to Fortune: A Look at Partnership and Investment Opportunities Among UAV Companies

Companies need to enter the drone market today before it matures and they miss the opportunity; the best pathways to entry will be through investment and partnership. We have provided a framework for evaluating the top players in the UAV industry and identifying the top partnership and investment potentials.
 

Q2 2015 Electric Car, Drive Thyself: How Autonomous Systems and Plug-in Vehicles Will Converge

To date, few automakers are focusing on autonomous electric vehicles – but momentum is building. Automakers are beginning to combine two parallel approaches to automotive innovation, in driver assist and in plug-in vehicles – to make autonomous electric vehicles – but the benefits of doing so remain unclear to many. Our analysis finds that: Self-parking plug-ins are coming soon, reaching 440,000 units in 2020, led by the likes of Tesla and BMW. Autonomous features will enable $1,800 in battery cost savings for long-range EVs, or bring 24 miles of added range. Partial and full autonomy will lead to $2.5 billion more battery sales in 2030.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q2 2015 Analyzing the NXP-Freescale Merger and Its Impact on the Automotive Sector

NXP announced in March 2015 that it has decided to merge with Freescale Semiconductor in a deal that values Freescale at $11.8 billion. While Freescale is a leader in microcontrollers for automotive, NXP has strength in car-to-X communication systems and security for cars. This report will examine what works in this merger specific to the automotive sector, where both companies have a big focus and where the combined NXP-Freescale entity will still struggle. This report will conclude by highlighting similar companies, such as NXP and Freescale, that are sure to be the next suitors or acquisition targets.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Future Platforms
Date Title & Description
Q1 2016 Robots Come Home - When, How, and Why Domestic Robots Are Entering Our Lives

Wherever you happen to live, better make room for a robot. The first wave of personal robots just hit the open market. We premiere the best of these home companions and their makers, plus future insight on what’s next in their product pipelines and market adoption. This presentation took place in the Robotics track of the 2016 Consumer Technology Association conference, CES.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q2 2016 The Future We Want: Directing Customer Behaviors with Predictive Analytics and Nudge Technologies

Predictive analytics (PA) is a branch of artificial intelligence (AI), which uses patterns in historical and current (even real-time) data to predict future states of a system, and alert users or intervene as appropriate. PA is transforming from passively observing and identifying future scenarios, to actively influencing factors that will drive the observed system to a particular outcome. In particular, “nudge technologies” are geared toward influencing human attitudes and behaviors – a huge technical and ethical leap from early applications in internet of things (IoT) like energy (demand response / smart grid). Leading firms are already learning to use PA and nudges to sense and respond to customer needs in real time and even pre-time, and get the future they want.
 

Q2 2016 Cybersecurity Venture Investment in Pervasive Computing and the IoT

Connected cars, smart homes, future factories, and intelligent cities offer huge new opportunities – for malicious actors. As computing pervades every area of personal and industrial space, vulnerabilities arise faster than firms can find and patch them, so venture capitalists are investing in new cyberphysical security entrants with new solutions - reaching $228 million in 2015, up 78% from the prior year. We expect investment to increase significantly, to as much as $400 million in 2016, as the landscape of problems and proposed solutions is still expanding, along with known risks that can’t currently be closed. Israel’s security innovation cluster has been the source of several leading technologies, and should figure into any firm’s IoT security strategy.
 

Q3 2016 AI Gets Edgy: How New Chips and Code Are Pushing Artificial Intelligence From the Centralized Cloud out to Network Nodes

Artificial intelligence (AI) has relied on energy-hogging fast processors and large datasets for training neural networks – both of which presupposed centralized computing architectures. But today, more powerful chips are letting AI escape from centralized, cloud-based systems and move out to devices at the edge of the network. Among incumbents, Intel spent a whopping $16.7 billion on AI chipmaker Altera; Google is developing an AI chip called Tensor and working with Movidius to put AI on a USB stick; and Nvidia has dropped $2 billion so far on its Tesla graphics chip for machine vision and other AI tasks. At the same time, startups like krtkl, KnuEdge, Nervana, MIT’s Eyeriss, and China’s Horizon Robotics are all developing new chips to bring AI to robots, self-driving cars, and other things in the Internet of Things that have to operate independently with an intermittent network connection – an IoT without the Internet.

Q4 2016 Emerging Technologies to Watch in 2017

The Lux Research team is constantly uncovering innovative ideas – novel technologies, creative new business models, and emerging growth opportunities. But while it's easy to find reports of new technologies that are purported to be transformative, they're often lacking the context or critical analysis to understand the real market opportunities, and the strategies to capitalize on them. In contrast, when a Lux analyst spots a new idea, her first instinct is to try to break it down, poke holes in it, find out why it won't work – and in many cases, it is does not pass muster. So those that do pass Lux’s vetting process really have something to them, as these are the ideas that can really have an effect on our lives, our businesses, and our world. Each year we challenge the analyst team to say what technology or trend they're following that has the greatest potential to transform the world over the over the next decade. Here are some of the ideas Lux is following as we start 2017.
 

Q4 2016 Making Money: the Maker Movement Scales Up in IoT and More

From 3D printing to the Internet of Things, innovators in the maker movement have been a key path for new technologies and products to move from imagination into the market. Many former hobbyists are starting companies and scaling up, challenging incumbents and offering partnership opportunities. This report looks at key events and epochs in the history of the maker movement; its manufacturing technologies and components; and strategies for corporate partners to engage.
 

Q1 2015 Information Meets Matter: Following the Data to Find Opportunity

Critical trends in connectivity and intelligence are emerging, captured by buzzwords like “The Internet of Things” and “Big Data”. While the hype is plentiful, actionable strategies for leveraging this trend are not. At the core, these concepts are about embedding intelligence in both objects, and a system of collected objects as a whole – the convergence of information and matter. While exorbitant projections of the market opportunity are readily available, there is urgent need for guidance on how connectivity will drive opportunity across the value chain, and how different players can build a value proposition for their technologies to access the massive untapped opportunity buried beneath the hype. 
 

Q2 2015 AIUX: The Artificial Intelligence User Experience

Artificial intelligence (AI), autonomous systems, ambient intelligence, pervasive computing, ubiquitous sensors, Big Data, predictive analytics, wearables and smart textiles, the Internet of Things... while we don’t know exactly what forms our increasingly-intelligent technologies will take, we know for certain that they grow more woven into the fabric of our lives, every day. And yet, despite the growing ubiquity of these systems, surprisingly little thought has been given to the interface between these smarter machines and humans. User experiences (UX) are so seamless today that we forget how recently designers had to debate the importance of usability; how every program and device used to come with a manual to explain its use; how big a shift it was to go from text-based to graphical interfaces. Yet we know that user experience is critical to efficiency, accuracy, safety, satisfaction, even comprehension. This workshop and subsequent research published in this service will address the questions we must consider in developing the Artificial Intelligence User Experience (AIUX).
 

Exploration and Production
Date Title & Description
Q1 2016 Sizing Down: Drivers and Economics for Small-scale GTL

Several major factors have driven innovation in the small-scale gas-to-liquids (GTL) space, including horizontal drilling and multi-stage fracking to release previously untapped shale gas reserves and stricter regulations to reduce flaring. For this report we built a detailed cost model to analyze the economic viability for small-scale GTL. We then use case studies on five players in the small-scale GTL space to identify key technology improvements necessary for cost parity at commercial scale.
 

Q1 2016 Review of the Top Eight Oil and Gas Corporate Venture Capital Groups

Corporate venture capital (CVC) groups at major oil companies are vital to the oil and gas start-up ecosystem. They have an equity stake in about half of all oil and gas start-ups that have raised funding. However, oil companies have also committed hundreds of millions of dollars to petroleum substitutes like biofuels, solar, and wind. This report provides a snapshot of the portfolio mix of the eight most prolific oil and gas CVC groups between 2005 and 2015.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q2 2016 Appraising the Last Reserves: Finding Opportunity in Exploration Technology

The oil industry is expected to spend $40 billion per year on exploration and appraisal between 2016 and 2018, compared to the $80 billion spent annually between 2012 and 2014. With discovery volumes the lowest in the past 60 years, the industry could face a major shortage of supply in the next few decades, driving interest in improved and novel exploration technologies. We analyze startups developing technologies for exploration of new oil and gas reserves and assessment of existing ones using the Lux Innovation Grid and highlight several companies that have distinguished themselves.
 

Q2 2016 Dealing with Threats to the Transportation Fuel Oil Industry

The oil industry depends heavily on the transportation fuel market. Threats now abound in that space. We model the growth of those threats to find that international commitments will encourage countries to tighten fuel efficiency standards, increasingly capable transportation batteries and drop-in biofuels offer credible competition will make up significant market share by 2030, and that dedicated players in the oil space should diversify to maintain their long-term competitiveness.
 

Q2 2016 Supermajor Darwinism: What Big Oil Can and Cannot Do About Total's Billion-Dollar Battery Move

Total is now the first oil supermajor to make a billion-dollar bet on energy storage, buying Saft. Much integration work remains, particularly with Total’s SunPower solar investment, but as this study shows, Total’s great move leaves its competitors with few options to respond: Unlike other sprawling suppliers, Saft is uniquely focused on batteries, making it a relatively cheap and tidy acquisition. It is Total’s compatriot too, which can help speed integration. Also, Saft already enjoys a strong position in the nascent grid storage space. How can Total’s competitors respond? As Darwinism looms for the future of power, other oil supermajors looking to evolve must choose among more expensive, broader battery players. But they should still act, as waiting longer and doing nothing would be an even worse outcome: The worthwhile battery companies continue to gain value and build momentum with each passing day, as are other opportunities toward a distributed generation future.
 

Q3 2016 The Future Oilfield: Drilling in 2030

The process of exploring and producing oil and natural gas has been transformed by the implementation of automated and integrated systems. From subsea completions to walking land rigs, innovation has been present at most aspects of the drilling process. Despite numerous advancements, drilling continues to be a dangerous and labor intensive process. The next generation of drilling will be smarter, faster, and hands-free.

Q4 2016 Emerging Technologies to Watch in 2017

The Lux Research team is constantly uncovering innovative ideas – novel technologies, creative new business models, and emerging growth opportunities. But while it's easy to find reports of new technologies that are purported to be transformative, they're often lacking the context or critical analysis to understand the real market opportunities, and the strategies to capitalize on them. In contrast, when a Lux analyst spots a new idea, her first instinct is to try to break it down, poke holes in it, find out why it won't work – and in many cases, it is does not pass muster. So those that do pass Lux’s vetting process really have something to them, as these are the ideas that can really have an effect on our lives, our businesses, and our world. Each year we challenge the analyst team to say what technology or trend they're following that has the greatest potential to transform the world over the over the next decade. Here are some of the ideas Lux is following as we start 2017.
 

Q4 2016 Assessing the Opportunity of Additive Manufacturing for the Oil and Gas Industry

The oil and gas industry is undergoing a major transformation in the low oil price era as the focus shifts towards operational efficiency. Oil and gas companies are beginning to explore the application of additive manufacturing and several speculative use cases exist across the upstream and downstream sectors. This report outlines a methodology to filter out specific use cases that are appropriate for 3D printing, and identifies the most lucrative use cases the industry should act on.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q4 2016 Making Use of Metadata: Analysis of Over 20,000 Oil and Gas Technical Papers

Top innovation executives in the oil and gas industry reported that they rarely make time to read technical papers published by the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE), but that technical papers have potential to impact business decisions. Based on this response, we analyzed over 20,000 SPE papers to identify key trends and partnerships. This analysis shows that the industry needs more creative solutions for analyzing historical data, which is readily available but challenging to navigate.
 

Q4 2016 The Future of Natural Gas: What the Rise in Demand Holds for the Global Energy Landscape

The global demand for natural gas is set to double in the next two decades primarily driven by developing countries, who will account for 76% of this rise in consumption by 2040. Furthermore, post COP 21 countries across the globe are pushing for a higher share of natural gas in their energy mix to reduce their carbon emissions. This report addresses the disruptive impact of the rising natural gas demand on the incumbent energy sources coal and oil, and the role of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in shaping the future energy landscape.
 

Q1 2015 Finding the Emerging Technologies That Will Shape the World

The Lux Research team is constantly uncovering innovative ideas – novel technologies, creative new business models, and emerging growth opportunities. But while reports of new technologies purported to be transformative can be found in many places, they're often lacking the context or critical analysis to understand the real market opportunities, and the strategies to capitalize on them. In contrast, when a Lux analyst spots a new idea, her first instinct is to try to break it down, poke holes in it, find out why it won't work – and in many cases, it is does not pass muster. So those that do pass Lux’s vetting process really have something to them, as these are the ideas that can really have an effect on our lives, our businesses, and our world. From time to time we challenge the analyst team to give the idea from their research – whether it's a theme, a trend, a market, a company, a technology – that they think will have the biggest impact over the next five to 10 years. Here's some of the ideas Lux is following as we start 2015.
 

Q2 2015 Understanding the Role of Start-ups in the Risky Offshore Environment

Offshore projects are capital intensive and require years of planning, making it difficult for new entrants, especially small technology developers, to penetrate the market. Major advances often require collaboration between several large players. Smaller technology developers need to overcome several barriers to penetrate the offshore space, including capitalization, track record, and long project cycles. Many have overcome these barriers by partnering with major players. To understand the role of start-ups in the offshore sector, Lux analyzed 27 offshore technology developers on their technical value and business execution.
 

Q2 2015 Competitive Innovation Assessment: Ecolab

Alongside strategy, a leading indicator and key aspect of a company’s long-term success is its technological differentiators. This report examines key indicators to assess Ecolab’s innovation with respect to key competitors in three major sectors: energy, water, and food and beverage. Barring further acquisitions, the report forecasts Ecolab’s revenue to grow from $14.28 in 2014 to $20.75 billion by 2025 with water growing from 15% to 18% of revenues, food and beverage growing from 12% to 14%, but the company’s highly vulnerable foray into energy shrinking from 30% to 19% of revenue due to market forces and a lack of differentiation in this dynamic space.
 

Q3 2015 Identifying Ways to Reduce Drilling Budgets in the Low Oil Price Environment

Current oil prices remain low and the rig count remains half of what it was at the start of the year. These conditions are causing operators to restructure and streamline operations. Operators are likely to focus on improving drilling efficiency.With many new technologies available, start-ups in the drilling industry that reduce non-productive time – whether replacing personnel, such as Robotic Drilling Systems, or preventing disaster like 5d Oilfield Magnetics – will be the most successful. To understand the impact of these technologies, it is crucial to understand the process of completing a drilling project and identify major pain points.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q3 2015 Competitive Innovation Assessment: Schlumberger

Alongside strategy, a leading indicator and key aspect of a company's long-term success is its technological indicators. Oilfield services companies especially need to constantly innovate in order to survive the cyclic nature of the oil and gas industry. This report offers a detailed breakdown of Schlumberger's key offerings and its competitive position in its three main markets: reservoir characterization, drilling, and production.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q3 2015 Surviving the Shakeout in Frac Water Treatment Technologies

The dramatic decline in oil prices over the second half of 2014 caused a delayed drop in frac activity, from about 2,300 fracs in October 2014 to 1,350 in February 2015. Despite this precipitous decline, the market for water management – from sourcing to disposal – remains strong for those who know how to play the opportunity. As oil and gas companies look for ways to cut back on capital spending, operators turn to new technologies in water treatment to tighten up their water management strategies and lower costs associated with water treatment, transportation, and disposal. Additionally, the space is seeing new regulatory momentum that could usher in stricter oversight on water transportation and disposal, as well as rules that aim to facilitate more extensive water recycling. No single water treatment technology has this market cornered, but players like Saltworks Technologies, WaterTectonics, and BioPetroClean stay afloat by drawing on their expertise to offer incremental improvements on integrated treatment solutions, while centralized facility operators, such as Aquatech and Altela, use conventional technologies to accept wastewater in regions where disposal is not an option and onsite treatment is an expensive alternative.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Industrial Internet of Things
Date Title & Description
Q1 2016 Predictive Maintenance: The Art of Uptime

Improvements in real-time sensing, connectivity, and analytics are ushering in the next generation of predictive maintenance solutions for the world’s industrial equipment. But before widespread deployment of next-generation solutions can take place, many organizations will need to catch up culturally and take the first steps towards initial investments in basic predictive maintenance programs. In this report, we will explore the current state of the art and the future of advanced predictive maintenance approaches. Through detailed analysis of survey results, we will also explore the current state of adoption of predictive maintenance across organzations of different industries, regions, and sizes.
 

Q1 2016 Finding Value in the Industrial Internet of Things

Improvements in real-time sensing, connectivity, and analytics are ushering in the next generation of predictive maintenance solutions for the world’s industrial equipment. But before widespread deployment of next-generation solutions can take place, many organizations will need to catch up culturally and take the first steps towards initial investments in basic predictive maintenance programs. In this report, we will explore the current state of the art and the future of advanced predictive maintenance approaches. Through detailed analysis of survey results, we will also explore the current state of adoption of predictive maintenance across organzations of different industries, regions, and sizes.

Q2 2016 A Tale of Two IoT Titans: The Curious Case of the GE – PTC Partnership

The Internet of Things (IoT) ecosystem is flooded with platform providers offering solutions with various value propositions. GE’s visionary Predix platform is owning the spotlight. PTC has acquired several IoT companies, notably ThingWorx, and is also a big name in the IoT arena. Despite overwhelmingly similar feature sets and capabilities, GE and PTC have forged a partnership to provide comprehensive IoT solutions. A closer look at this partnership provides insight into the substance behind the two offerings.
 

Q2 2016 Cybersecurity Venture Investment in Pervasive Computing and the IoT

Connected cars, smart homes, future factories, and intelligent cities offer huge new opportunities – for malicious actors. As computing pervades every area of personal and industrial space, vulnerabilities arise faster than firms can find and patch them, so venture capitalists are investing in new cyberphysical security entrants with new solutions - reaching $228 million in 2015, up 78% from the prior year. We expect investment to increase significantly, to as much as $400 million in 2016, as the landscape of problems and proposed solutions is still expanding, along with known risks that can’t currently be closed. Israel’s security innovation cluster has been the source of several leading technologies, and should figure into any firm’s IoT security strategy.
 

Q2 2016 The Internet of Agricultural Things

The farm is rich with data sources and ripe for operational improvements, making it an ideal environment for the application of sensing, connectivity, and analytics. An array of startups offering connected ag solutions have hit the scene; meanwhile, a wide range of major players from across the industry have jumped on the opportunity, as well. While a few farmers have been quick to deploy connected ag solutions, others have been hesitant to adopt these technologies for a variety of reasons. In this report, we will assess drivers and obstacles for the internet of agricultural things, as well as analyze several case studies of established deployments to understand solution architecture and value proposition.
 

Q3 2016 Semi IoT Market: Evaluating Companies to Find Leaders and Laggards

Chip makers are jockeying to get a piece of the potentially huge internet of things (IoT) market. The stakes are high; chip makers that succeed will be able to call the shots in a new and potentially lucrative markets, while those that fall behind could be relegated to also-ran status. Looking at the battle at the chip level is useful because chip makers – with their chips and modules – are developing the foundation for the whole IoT market and, as a result, provide an early glimpse of the new world to come. This report looks at four companies, including Intel, Qualcomm, Texas Instruments, and Nvidia, and their IoT product strategies and business execution. Lux built a criteria to evaluate the companies on their technical value, business execution, and overall maturity, and mapped the companies onto the Lux Innovation Grid (LIG).

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q3 2016 The IoT Platform Shakedown

Predictive analytics (PA) is a branch of artificial intelligence (AI), which uses patterns in historical and current (even real-time) data to predict future states of a system, and alert users or intervene as appropriate. PA is transforming from passively observing and identifying future scenarios, to actively influencing factors that will drive the observed system to a particular outcome. In particular, “nudge technologies” are geared toward influencing human attitudes and behaviors – a huge technical and ethical leap from early applications in internet of things (IoT) like energy (demand response / smart grid). Leading firms are already learning to use PA and nudges to sense and respond to customer needs in real time and even pre-time, and get the future they want.
 

Q3 2016 Keeping It Fresh: Improving Cold Chain Outcomes With Sensor Platforms

Cold supply chains are imperfect and prone to complications that damage brands and result in millions of dollars of product losses. Many of these issues stem from problems occuring during transit and at handoffs. The key factor that can damage cold goods is temperature, but other factors – like light, shock, and humidity – can also harm cold products. To prevent damages, enterprises can deploy real-time monitoring platforms that can alert operators before product is lost. In this report, we developed payback models for monitoring systems in five different use cases. We found that high-value products, like vaccines, recognize very positive paybacks through investment in more advanced monitoring systems. Less valuable products, like bulk commodity foods, require high loss rates to create a strong business case for next generation monitoring solutions.
 

Q4 2016 Beyond Finance: Blockchain’s Impact on the Power Sector

After making waves across the financial services industry, blockchain is now poised to disrupt several other industries. Developers are porting the technology onto new use cases, and the power sector has emerged as an early leader for blockchain development. However, numerous obstacles remain before blockchain becomes a mainstream technology. In this report, we take a deep look at the potential impact of blockchain in the power industry, focusing on power transactions. Additionally, we examine the key players in the emerging blockchain landscape, the underlying mechanisms that make blockchains work, drivers for new blockchain applications, and challenges that blockchain needs to overcome to reach its full potential.
 

Q4 2016 Emerging Technologies to Watch in 2017

The Lux Research team is constantly uncovering innovative ideas – novel technologies, creative new business models, and emerging growth opportunities. But while it's easy to find reports of new technologies that are purported to be transformative, they're often lacking the context or critical analysis to understand the real market opportunities, and the strategies to capitalize on them. In contrast, when a Lux analyst spots a new idea, her first instinct is to try to break it down, poke holes in it, find out why it won't work – and in many cases, it is does not pass muster. So those that do pass Lux’s vetting process really have something to them, as these are the ideas that can really have an effect on our lives, our businesses, and our world. Each year we challenge the analyst team to say what technology or trend they're following that has the greatest potential to transform the world over the over the next decade. Here are some of the ideas Lux is following as we start 2017.
 

Q4 2016 A Sensor a Day Keeps the Doctor Away: How Digital Technology is Keeping Workers Safe

Workplace injuries have long been a concern to employers, and many oil and gas, manufacturing, construction, and transportation companies have put traditional safety mechanisms in place. However, even though workplace accidents are an old issue and old solutions exist, the perfect formula for keeping workers safe has yet to be cracked. To address the plateau of workplace injuries, an array of startups is now tackling the worker safety problem via digital means. In this report, we examine existing digital worker safety solutions, highlight technological and acceptance obstacles they face, and assess whether these solutions truly address employers’ needs. We also outline action items for developers and end-users, so that together they can deliver on the common vision of an industrial – and safe – internet of things.
 

Energy Storage
Date Title & Description
Q1 2016 Energy Storage Year in Review: The Five Biggest Developments of 2015, and Five to Watch in 2016 and Beyond

 
As we move into 2016, Lux Research’s Energy Storage team looks back at the most important developments of 2015 and their impacts. The team also looks forward to what will be key trend to watch in 2016 and beyond. While some developments will immediately influence the industry others will have broader implications that could take more time to develop, but ultimately have a bigger long-term impact.
 

Q1 2016 EV Inflection Tracker 2016 Edition

Our EV Inflection Tracker analyzes how compelling automakers’ plug-in offerings are, as a leading indicator of when EVs will be positioned to take over the automotive market. In this 2016 edition, the automotive industry earns an overall failing grade of 27/100, with the only high-point coming from the luxury car segment. There is some progress that automakers are making in small and large cars, but they fail in the all-important SUV and pickup truck markets. In addition to specific analysis for what to watch in each segment, along with a quadrant analysis of driving range and affordability, we also qualitatively estimate that the “EV Inflection Point”, capturing more than 50% of new car sales, is in the 2035-2040 timeframe.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q2 2016 Supermajor Darwinism: What Big Oil Can and Cannot Do About Total's Billion-Dollar Battery Move

Total is now the first oil supermajor to make a billion-dollar bet on energy storage, buying Saft. Much integration work remains, particularly with Total’s SunPower solar investment, but as this study shows, Total’s great move leaves its competitors with few options to respond: Unlike other sprawling suppliers, Saft is uniquely focused on batteries, making it a relatively cheap and tidy acquisition. It is Total’s compatriot too, which can help speed integration. Also, Saft already enjoys a strong position in the nascent grid storage space. How can Total’s competitors respond? As Darwinism looms for the future of power, other oil supermajors looking to evolve must choose among more expensive, broader battery players. But they should still act, as waiting longer and doing nothing would be an even worse outcome: The worthwhile battery companies continue to gain value and build momentum with each passing day, as are other opportunities toward a distributed generation future.
 

Q2 2016 How to Make Money in Stationary Energy Storage: Establishing Threshold Values for Emerging Storage Applications

Stationary energy storage is a transformation grid management asset that has the ability to both absorb and inject energy, acting as both a generator and consumer of power. However, despite significant system cost reduction progress, there remain few profitable avenues for stationary storage. The industry’s development has been hampered by limited and regionally specific pathways to consistent revenue streams. While there are some early market examples of profitable applications, policymakers and stakeholders have not come to a consensus on how to value the multitude of services storage can provide. Further complicating the landscape, the value of these services fluctuates with a battery’s location, grid domain, and end application. We find that there is not a single “killer app” for energy storage, but rather several applications and combinations of applications that yield profitable systems, depending on the system cost. Moreover, we identify that power-focused applications provide the best near term path to profitability, but that profitability will remain regionally specific, with developers relying on advanced software management to enable application stacking and virtual power plants. Going forward, policy certainty will be required across all grid domains for energy storage to be deployed as both a centralized and distributed energy resource.
 

Q2 2016 Segmenting the $10 Billion Battery Market for Plug-In Vehicles: Market Share Projections for OEMs, Individual Models, and Suppliers

The initial plug-in vehicle hype bubble, which garnered a lot of attention yet yielded little tangible growth, was driven by government mandates and flashy startups. More established OEMs are now committing to electrification as plug-in sales have increased rapidly in the last year, indicating the market may be on the verge of real growth. This report forecasts sales for more than 80 plug-ins and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) already on the market or slated to be released, providing a detailed analysis of where plug-in vehicle growth will come from and what it means for the broader energy storage industry.
 

Q3 2016 EV Price Parity: When and How 200-mile Range EVs Can Really Win on Economics

The best-selling passenger car in the U.S. is the Toyota Camry. In base form, its price is just $23,000. Our study takes this benchmark, and analyzes if, when, and how electric vehicles (EVs) can beat that leader on price. Specifically, we analyze how EVs capable of driving 200 miles or more on a single charge will evolve in price and capability, taking the Tesla Model 3’s eventual successors as our case study. We consider the effect of three key disruptive innovations that will benefit EVs over the next two decades: Falling battery prices, carsharing business models, and vehicle-to-grid functionality. We find that even by 2035, falling battery prices alone may not be fully sufficient to allow EVs to undercut vehicles like the Toyota Camry – although the race is close. However, adding in carsharing and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) business models could allow EVs to effectively win on raw value proposition by 2030. That would deal a potentially deadly blow to the prospects of cars powered by the internal combustion engine (ICE), sooner than some incumbents anticipate.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q3 2016 What It Really Costs to Commercialize New Battery Technology: Lessons From More Than a Decade of Investment Data

As plug-in vehicles and stationary storage continue to build momentum, batteries are attracting enormous interest and hype – but as many investors have already learnt the hard way, this technology is very expensive and difficult to commercialize. To quantify what it really costs to bring a new energy storage related idea to market, we analyze more than a decade’s worth of select investment data, and find that relatively speaking, plug-ins are an order of magnitude more expensive to fund, needing $1 billion per startup within six years. Meanwhile, for $100 million to $300 million, a number of options are on the table, ranging from incumbent lithium-ion and system integration to advanced stationary batteries. Finally, next-generation batteries are a slow burn, raising just about $40 million even after eight years, but that slows their road to market.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q4 2016 Emerging Technologies to Watch in 2017

The Lux Research team is constantly uncovering innovative ideas – novel technologies, creative new business models, and emerging growth opportunities. But while it's easy to find reports of new technologies that are purported to be transformative, they're often lacking the context or critical analysis to understand the real market opportunities, and the strategies to capitalize on them. In contrast, when a Lux analyst spots a new idea, her first instinct is to try to break it down, poke holes in it, find out why it won't work – and in many cases, it is does not pass muster. So those that do pass Lux’s vetting process really have something to them, as these are the ideas that can really have an effect on our lives, our businesses, and our world. Each year we challenge the analyst team to say what technology or trend they're following that has the greatest potential to transform the world over the over the next decade. Here are some of the ideas Lux is following as we start 2017.
 

Q4 2016 Future Costs of Stationary Energy Storage: Evaluating Li-ion and Flow Battery Cost Reductions and Application Fit

Stationary energy storage is vital for a growing number of applications, but requirements for size and duration differ widely. Pairing the right battery technology with the right application to minimize costs is central to economically expanding stationary energy storage deployment. We forecast and compare Li-ion and flow battery costs across a large-parameter space and determine thresholds where given energy storage technologies are less expensive.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q4 2016 Quantifying the 48-Volt Opportunity in Low-Voltage Electrification

As automakers and their suppliers strive to make vehicles that meet stricter fuel emissions and efficiency standards, the internal combustion engine is running out of cost-effective ways of reducing fuel consumption. Low-voltage hybrids, such as 12 V and 48 V architectures, are promising technologies that can help achieve most emissions targets while costing a fraction of full hybrid systems. This report finds that annual sales for 48 V hybrids will exceed 50 million by 2030, resulting in 38 GWh of Li-ion battery demand.
 

Q4 2016 Reuse or Recycle: The Billion-Dollar Battery Question

As the first generation of plug-in vehicles comes off the roads, many in the Li-ion value chain are interested not only in how we can recycle these batteries to recover valuable materials, but also if these batteries can be used in secondary applications before recycling. This report analyzes the technological landscape for recycling and reuse of Li-ion batteries, including a cost and performance analysis of second-life batteries to evaluate potential application fits for second-life batteries.
 

Q1 2015 Finding the Emerging Technologies That Will Shape the World

The Lux Research team is constantly uncovering innovative ideas – novel technologies, creative new business models, and emerging growth opportunities. But while reports of new technologies purported to be transformative can be found in many places, they're often lacking the context or critical analysis to understand the real market opportunities, and the strategies to capitalize on them. In contrast, when a Lux analyst spots a new idea, her first instinct is to try to break it down, poke holes in it, find out why it won't work – and in many cases, it is does not pass muster. So those that do pass Lux’s vetting process really have something to them, as these are the ideas that can really have an effect on our lives, our businesses, and our world. From time to time we challenge the analyst team to give the idea from their research – whether it's a theme, a trend, a market, a company, a technology – that they think will have the biggest impact over the next five to 10 years. Here's some of the ideas Lux is following as we start 2015.
 

Q1 2015 Energy Storage Year in Review: The Five Biggest Developments of 2014, and Five to Watch in 2015 and Beyond

As we shift into 2015, Lux Research’s Energy Storage team looks back at the most important developments of 2014 and what they mean. The team also looks forward to what to watch in 2015 and beyond. While some developments will immediately influence energy storage applications and sales, others will have broader implications that could take more time to develop, but ultimately have a bigger long-term impact.
 

Q1 2015 Crossing the Line: Li-ion Battery Cost Reduction and Its Effect on Vehicles and Stationary Storage

If lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries can reach substantially lower costs, they will supercharge the adoption of plug-in vehicles and stationary energy storage. However, the energy storage industry is notoriously secretive about today’s Li-ion battery costs and their future trends. Players also disagree about the right path forward: Some are pursuing gigafactories making cylindrical nickel cobalt aluminum oxide (NCA)-based cells, while others are taking a completely different approach. This report uses a new bottom-up Li-ion cost model to account for differences in battery chemistry, form factor, production scale, location, and other nuances. We find that Li-ion battery pack prices will fall to $172/kWh by 2025 for the best-in-class players (while others will lag at more than $229/kWh), and also analyze the resulting impact on more affordable electric vehicles (EVs) and stationary applications.
 

Q2 2015 The Li-ion NMC Patent Lawsuit and Its Fallout: Waging Billion-dollar War Over Crystal Phases

German chemical giant BASF has filed a patent infringement lawsuit against Belgian materials specialist Umicore for selling an NMC-based cathode in the U.S. that BASF and its partner Argonne lay claim to. We find that the NMC market had been poised to grow dramatically on the back of the vehicle market to reach more than 28 GWh by 2025, making this an extremely high-stakes lawsuit. The jury will have to consider how much (if any) of today’s NMC that the market uses is dual-phase, as BASF claims, which will require extensive compositional testing. Stakeholders in the energy storage value chain should hedge any NMC-dependent strategies, both short- and long-term, via a mix of approaches that this report details.
 

Q2 2015 Electric Car, Drive Thyself: How Autonomous Systems and Plug-in Vehicles Will Converge

To date, few automakers are focusing on autonomous electric vehicles – but momentum is building. Automakers are beginning to combine two parallel approaches to automotive innovation, in driver assist and in plug-in vehicles – to make autonomous electric vehicles – but the benefits of doing so remain unclear to many. Our analysis finds that: Self-parking plug-ins are coming soon, reaching 440,000 units in 2020, led by the likes of Tesla and BMW. Autonomous features will enable $1,800 in battery cost savings for long-range EVs, or bring 24 miles of added range. Partial and full autonomy will lead to $2.5 billion more battery sales in 2030.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q2 2015 Evaluating Tesla’s Powerwall: Finding a Home for Residential Energy Storage

Electric vehicle maker Tesla Motors has unveiled two stationary storage products targeting residential – and larger systems, too. We find that Tesla advertises a very low price point relative to other battery players, but its products require further hardware that will double the cost to the end consumer. The company is betting on margin expansion and announced it will lose money on every system it sells, initially. However, despite its low priced claims, the revenue model for residential storage is tenuous, leading most consumers to focus on backup power.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q2 2015 Clearing the Haze: Demystifying Energy Storage Opportunities in China

China’s environmental problems create incentives for energy storage, and its huge auto industry and electricity grid create a large addressable market. Labyrinthine and fickle regulatory structures, however, complicate the picture. This report gives an overview of the policies in China’s automotive and stationary energy storage markets, as well as the major players and technologies. We forecast the growth of automotive and stationary applications for energy storage, finding that the total size of the market grows to $9 billion and 31 GWh in 2025. Despite public and private efforts, challenges in infrastructure and regulation persist in limiting the scale of opportunities.
 

Q3 2015 Powerful Medicine: Opportunities for Pairing New Bioelectronics Devices With Innovative Energy Storage

The separate areas of medical technologies and energy storage are each innovating in parallel, but there is an increasing opportunity for developers to combine the two into health care devices that offer greater functionality, improved safety, and more comfortable form factors using the latest technology in batteries and other innovations for powering devices. We identify and analyze the need for long-lasting, advanced medical devices in key application areas: a) implantable devices, b) wearable, on-the-body devices, and c) standalone devices, either handheld or desktop. Our analysis highlights the key pain points of these applications, and uses the proprietary Lux Innovation Grid to identify key developers that are already making an impact on medical devices, with technologies ranging from Li-ion to thin-film batteries.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Agro Innovation
Date Title & Description
Q1 2016 Recapping the Year in Agriculture: Major Developments and Tech Hotspots, and Trends to Watch for 2016

In this report, we review key agricultural innovation trends of 2015 and explore some of the major pending changes to watch for 2016 and the years to come. In 2015, the agriculture industry saw major changes, including: a round of approvals for modified crops developed using RNA interference; increased ability to use UAVs in agriculture, including for spray applications and for use beyond visual line of sight (BVLOS); and data and analysis moved into a more dominant position as a major part of agricultural technology. Looking ahead to 2016 and the years to come, we anticipate that: genome editing technologies will become the method of choice for crop improvement; large corporations will continue to invest in vertical farming in Japan, creating a new leader in the global protected agriculture industry; and consolidation and M&A activities among major agriculture companies will shake up historic dynamics in the industry; the acquisition of Syngenta by ChemChina will have particularly meaningful impacts on China’s agricultural regulatory situation.
 

Q2 2016 The Internet of Agricultural Things

The farm is rich with data sources and ripe for operational improvements, making it an ideal environment for the application of sensing, connectivity, and analytics. An array of startups offering connected ag solutions have hit the scene; meanwhile, a wide range of major players from across the industry have jumped on the opportunity, as well. While a few farmers have been quick to deploy connected ag solutions, others have been hesitant to adopt these technologies for a variety of reasons. In this report, we will assess drivers and obstacles for the internet of agricultural things, as well as analyze several case studies of established deployments to understand solution architecture and value proposition.
 

Q3 2016 The Yield Gap: Getting Through the Genetic Glass Ceiling

As annual yield increases slow to a crawl, it’s possible we have exhausted the possibilities of generating higher yields from crops. Are there clues to breaking through this genetic glass ceiling, or is it just a matter of better management and diminishing genetic returns? In this report, we will assess the reality of approaching plants’ theoretical maximum yields, and the current biotechnology tools at our disposal that can help bust through the genetic glass ceiling.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q4 2016 Does Bayer's Acquisition of Monsanto Make Sense?

This year, the agricultural industry underwent a dramatic shake-up as a series of mega-mergers and acquisitions occurred; one of those was Bayer’s acquisition of Monsanto. We conducted an in-depth analysis of the future combined company’s strengths and weaknesses across four technology categories; crop and seed traits, Digital Ag, synthetic agrochemicals, and biologicals. We examined each individual company's external innovations in these technology families by examining recent licenses, partnerships, and acquisitions. We also examined each individual company's internal innovations in these technology families by examining recently granted intellectual property. The analysis reveals if Bayer's acquisition of Monsanto made sense, and if it was truly worth the $66 billion price tag.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q4 2016 Five Key Takeaways From the U.S. DOE Billion-Ton Report

The U.S. bio-economy is projected to consume 1.2 billion dry MT of biomass by 2040 according to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). We identify five key takeaways from the U.S. DOE’s Billion-Ton Report, calling out high-potential opportunities and pitfalls that are likely to impact projections. The DOE is counting on corn stover as a major source of biomass for cellulosic biofuels. Improved biogas utilization will be a key part of deriving value from waste in the biofuel industry. Algae’s high cost and diminishing capacity by 2040 makes it only a suitable feedstock for high-value bio-based products. The DOE’s projection for commercial consumption of energy crops is overly ambitious. While there is a future for biomass consumption, their ascension will not be nearly as rapid as the DOE projects.
 

Q4 2016 Emerging Technologies to Watch in 2017

The Lux Research team is constantly uncovering innovative ideas – novel technologies, creative new business models, and emerging growth opportunities. But while it's easy to find reports of new technologies that are purported to be transformative, they're often lacking the context or critical analysis to understand the real market opportunities, and the strategies to capitalize on them. In contrast, when a Lux analyst spots a new idea, her first instinct is to try to break it down, poke holes in it, find out why it won't work – and in many cases, it is does not pass muster. So those that do pass Lux’s vetting process really have something to them, as these are the ideas that can really have an effect on our lives, our businesses, and our world. Each year we challenge the analyst team to say what technology or trend they're following that has the greatest potential to transform the world over the over the next decade. Here are some of the ideas Lux is following as we start 2017.
 

Q1 2015 Finding the Emerging Technologies That Will Shape the World

The Lux Research team is constantly uncovering innovative ideas – novel technologies, creative new business models, and emerging growth opportunities. But while reports of new technologies purported to be transformative can be found in many places, they're often lacking the context or critical analysis to understand the real market opportunities, and the strategies to capitalize on them. In contrast, when a Lux analyst spots a new idea, her first instinct is to try to break it down, poke holes in it, find out why it won't work – and in many cases, it is does not pass muster. So those that do pass Lux’s vetting process really have something to them, as these are the ideas that can really have an effect on our lives, our businesses, and our world. From time to time we challenge the analyst team to give the idea from their research – whether it's a theme, a trend, a market, a company, a technology – that they think will have the biggest impact over the next five to 10 years. Here's some of the ideas Lux is following as we start 2015.
 

Q1 2015 Crop Protection: A Taxonomy View

In this report, we organize the crop protection space into a concise taxonomy, comprised of three main categories: the targets of crop protection products, the delivery methods employed, and the sources of active and inactive ingredients. Additionally, we identified portions of the taxonomy that are over- and under-represented within Lux’s existing company coverage, as an indicator of low and high focus by startups. Through this process, we were able to identify abiotic stress tolerance as an underserved target, formulations like spreaders as underserved delivery methods, and physical and chemical sources as relatively less-crowded source innovation spaces. These represent technology areas that may hold significant opportunities and lower competition for clients in the crop protection space.
 

Q2 2015 Tightening Fish Meal Supply Creates Opportunities for Aquaculture Feed Alternatives

Fish meal and fish oil have historically been the most desirable ingredients for feeding farmed fish. Supply of both ingredients is tightening; meanwhile aquaculture production is on a significant rise. Even with significant research efforts ongoing to reduce the dependence on fish meal for aquaculture diets, the impact of rising fish meal prices on production costs for major farmed species is outpacing the impact of those research efforts. Today, the majority of fish meal replacement options are in their infancies, facing technical hurdles and regulatory challenges. Getting these alternatives to market readiness will be a key rate-limiting step in aquaculture’s future growth. To get ahead of the coming shifts, companies need to find opportunities to quickly examine whether their existing technologies can address the unmet needs of cost, nutrition, and scale for these alternative ingredients.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q2 2015 Big Data in Precision Agriculture

Feeding more people with less input while improving the environment – it may be the biggest challenge facing the world, and farmers have to solve it. Fortunately, it’s certainly possible – we just need to know where the waste is, and how to cut it or avoid it in the first place. From chemical inputs to labor and cashflow, big data can be a grower’s most flexible tool for increasing the efficiency of food production.
 

Q2 2015 Opportunities and Threats in the Seed Treatment Industry: Where Can You Make Money?

Seed treatments are a rapidly growing aspect of commercial agriculture. From seed disinfection to fungicidal and insecticidal treatments that protect growing seedlings, more and more seeds carry technology with them when planted. This report examines the seed treatment space, focusing on corn, soybeans, wheat, and vegetables. There is significant risk in the seed treatment industry: leading agrichemical suppliers have relatively broad portfolios of products, but those products rely on active ingredients with a small number of modes of action. There is a high risk of resistance emerging in both insects and fungi as a result, and regulatory changes pose threats to seed treatments, evident from the European ban on neonicotinoids. These risks demonstrate an unmet need for actives with novel modes of action. Further, this research finds that the corn seed treatment market is highly consolidated and centralized, while soybean seed treatments are more de-centralized. New entrants to either value chain will have limited options, requiring strategic moves to yield success.
 

Water
Date Title & Description
Q1 2016 The Dawn of Membrane Forward Osmosis: A Tiny Industry Targeting Multibillion-dollar Markets

Recent investments in forward osmosis (FO) have helped technology providers gradually bring this innovative technology to market. The first FO deployments failed to gain traction in crowded markets like seawater desalination and frac water treatment, but advances in membrane design and strong draw solutions have created an opportunity for FO in difficult-to treat wastewater and high-value industrial markets.
 

Q2 2016 Closing the Loop: The Future of Decentralized Water

Current water and wastewater treatment infrastructure faces a crisis. The prohibitive cost of repairing buried and ageing infrastructure and the need to decrease energy use and waste in the water industry offers an opportunity for a complete design rethink. New technologies, often utilizing membranes, can decentralize water and wastewater infrastructure while improving water reuse by treating to a high standard at a small scale close to the source of generation. Additionally, new automated analytics offer solutions for these more complex decentralized solutions. This webinar will look at how leading technologies and methods will combine to transform the industry.

Q2 2016 Tackling Water Consumption through Water Management and Reuse

As the global demand for water outstrips supply, the need for water conservation methods and enhanced reuse technologies is growing. Water consumption in the U.S. reached 355 billion gallons per day in 2010. Over the past two decades, the country’s water withdrawals from saline and freshwater sources have been leveling off. While the U.S. achieves significant water savings in industrial use, food and irrigation, and public use, there is a potential for more reuse. Israel and Singapore lead in reclaiming water for reuse, quenching nearly 20% of their overall water needs. Whereas, the U.S. and Australia recycle only 1% to 3% to meet their water demands. We analyze startups in the water consumption and reuse space using the Lux Innovation Grid and highlight several companies that have distinguished themselves.
 

Q2 2016 Emerging Green Desalination: Solar and Wave Technologies

As energy consumption rises globally, humanity is seeking new renewable sources to power civilization. Seawater desalination is fast becoming a necessary method for producing freshwater in many parts of the world but the process is generally energy-intensive. In this report, we analyze two sources of renewable energy for desalination: solar, which is gradually becoming a mature market, and wave power, which currently remains in its infancy.
 

Q4 2016 Emerging Technologies to Watch in 2017

The Lux Research team is constantly uncovering innovative ideas – novel technologies, creative new business models, and emerging growth opportunities. But while it's easy to find reports of new technologies that are purported to be transformative, they're often lacking the context or critical analysis to understand the real market opportunities, and the strategies to capitalize on them. In contrast, when a Lux analyst spots a new idea, her first instinct is to try to break it down, poke holes in it, find out why it won't work – and in many cases, it is does not pass muster. So those that do pass Lux’s vetting process really have something to them, as these are the ideas that can really have an effect on our lives, our businesses, and our world. Each year we challenge the analyst team to say what technology or trend they're following that has the greatest potential to transform the world over the over the next decade. Here are some of the ideas Lux is following as we start 2017.
 

Q4 2016 Assessing Opportunities in the Fast-Growing Zero Liquid Discharge Market

The water industry is seeing a dramatic shift in the way industrial and municipal facilities are managing wastewater streams. Growing concerns over surface water contamination, rising source water costs, and managing brine disposal for heavy industries is seeing zero liquid discharge (ZLD) emerge as a winning water reuse strategy. Recent environmental regulations in the U.S. and in emerging economies, like India and China, have made ZLD installations mandatory across industries. While most systems are installed in remote, industrial environments to leverage waste heat and reduce energy consumption, emerging ZLD treatment trains can also provide an opportunity for inland municipal desalination plants to increase recoveries and lower brine disposal costs. Our analysis and timeline shows the rapid growth in the market and the technologies that will make ZLD adoption more widespread.
 

Q1 2015 Finding the Emerging Technologies That Will Shape the World

The Lux Research team is constantly uncovering innovative ideas – novel technologies, creative new business models, and emerging growth opportunities. But while reports of new technologies purported to be transformative can be found in many places, they're often lacking the context or critical analysis to understand the real market opportunities, and the strategies to capitalize on them. In contrast, when a Lux analyst spots a new idea, her first instinct is to try to break it down, poke holes in it, find out why it won't work – and in many cases, it is does not pass muster. So those that do pass Lux’s vetting process really have something to them, as these are the ideas that can really have an effect on our lives, our businesses, and our world. From time to time we challenge the analyst team to give the idea from their research – whether it's a theme, a trend, a market, a company, a technology – that they think will have the biggest impact over the next five to 10 years. Here's some of the ideas Lux is following as we start 2015.
 

Q1 2015 Blue Revolution: The Fast-growing $7.2 Billion Water Treatment Opportunity in Aquaculture

Demand for fish is leaping: in the last 20 years, demand has grown by 64%. Despite “vacuuming the sea” with overfishing and rampant illegal fishing, the traditional fishing industry has failed to meet this growing demand. Instead, it is being filled by aquaculture, which has consistently grown in value by an exceptional 8.3% annually. Continued growth depends on better technology: the market for advanced recirculating aquaculture systems that reduce water consumption and intensify production is growing rapidly in Europe, North America, and Asia. By 2030, aquaculture will meet 62% of the global fish demand. Our analysis shows that 40% of this production will be supplied by advanced recirculating systems. This represents a $13.3 billion market for water treatment, growing from $7.2 billion today.
 

Q2 2015 Competitive Innovation Assessment: Ecolab

Alongside strategy, a leading indicator and key aspect of a company’s long-term success is its technological differentiators. This report examines key indicators to assess Ecolab’s innovation with respect to key competitors in three major sectors: energy, water, and food and beverage. Barring further acquisitions, the report forecasts Ecolab’s revenue to grow from $14.28 in 2014 to $20.75 billion by 2025 with water growing from 15% to 18% of revenues, food and beverage growing from 12% to 14%, but the company’s highly vulnerable foray into energy shrinking from 30% to 19% of revenue due to market forces and a lack of differentiation in this dynamic space.
 

Q3 2015 Surviving the Shakeout in Frac Water Treatment Technologies

The dramatic decline in oil prices over the second half of 2014 caused a delayed drop in frac activity, from about 2,300 fracs in October 2014 to 1,350 in February 2015. Despite this precipitous decline, the market for water management – from sourcing to disposal – remains strong for those who know how to play the opportunity. As oil and gas companies look for ways to cut back on capital spending, operators turn to new technologies in water treatment to tighten up their water management strategies and lower costs associated with water treatment, transportation, and disposal. Additionally, the space is seeing new regulatory momentum that could usher in stricter oversight on water transportation and disposal, as well as rules that aim to facilitate more extensive water recycling. No single water treatment technology has this market cornered, but players like Saltworks Technologies, WaterTectonics, and BioPetroClean stay afloat by drawing on their expertise to offer incremental improvements on integrated treatment solutions, while centralized facility operators, such as Aquatech and Altela, use conventional technologies to accept wastewater in regions where disposal is not an option and onsite treatment is an expensive alternative.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Wearable Electronics
Date Title & Description
Q2 2016 From Tracking to Intelligence: Uncovering the Unmet Needs of Today's Athlete

Since the entry of wearable electronics into the consumer market, sports has been a primary focus area for these technologies. Within sports wearables, the focus is generally put on fitness tracking devices; in this report, we also look at other major applications for sports wearables: technique tracking, team strategy, and safety. To understand whether sports wearables answer the needs of today’s athletes, we perform a gap analysis between what developers and end-users of these technologies perceive as important. From these discussions, we conclude that there are gaps between what athletes need and what is available, that simple solutions can bring more value than complex ones, and that more work needs to be done until wearables can truly induce behavioral changes to enable athletes to achieve their health and performance goals.
 

Q2 2016 Catching-Up to Intel and Qualcomm: Understanding the $5 Billion of Venture Capital Investment in Wearable Electronics

Between 2006 and 2016 Q1, venture capitalists have invested $5.2 billion in wearable electronics startups. With $1.2 billion already invested in Q1, 2016 is on track to break the previous record of $1.4 billion set in 2014. To understand the trends in wearable electronics venture capital investment, we tracked the investments by application, form factor, year since start-up’s founding, and corporate venture capital (CVC) activity. While consumer health and wellness applications and wristband/armband form factors had received the most funding overall before 2014, attention is shifting to new areas since then – namely consumer communication applications and smart glasses form factors. Intel is the leading wearables CVC, having invested in nine wearables companies, covering a diverse range of six form factors and four different applications.
 

 

Q2 2016 2016 Will Break All Electronic User Interfaces VC Funding Records: Analyzing the Trends and Leaders From the $7 Billion Invested

Venture capital (VC) firms have invested $7 billion into electronic user interface (EUI) technologies, and with $1.1 billion invested in Q1, 2016 will shatter the annual record of $1.3 billion set in 2014. While the amount of funding continues to increase, the technologies receiving the funding have evolved significantly, as newcomers like augmented and virtual reality have been garnering much of the funding over the past several years. In addition, those providing funding have also been changing, as corporate venture capital (CVC) has become more active in recent years, participating in more than 70 funding rounds since 2014. Intel, Samsung, Qualcomm, Google, and BASF were the most active CVCs, but their portfolios vary widely as, for example, Google and Samsung made investments throughout the virtual reality value chain, while Intel maintains a broader portfolio across 2D displays, augmented reality, voice controls, touch controls, and virtual reality.
 

Q3 2016 10 Global Hotspots for Wearable Electronics Innovation

There is a lot of hype around wearables, and yet turning the buzz into a real market opportunity remains a challenge. With different geographical regions offering expertise in different wearable technologies or across different stages of the value chain, the ability to leverage global strengths in a resourceful way is non-trivial. The U.S. has long been considered a hotspot for wearable electronics innovation, yet development and adoption of wearable electronics have taken place globally. In this report we confirm that the U.S. is a dominant player in this space; perhaps more importantly, we identify nine additional less expected global hotspots that are catching up on some fronts: Australia, Canada, China, Israel, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Switzerland, and the U.K. By examining research and development, backing, and adoption of wearable electronics across the globe, we determine note that while China has a relatively small startup community, startups in this country are most well-funded; whereas Canada’s academic community is largely focused on developing virtual reality technologies and device components, its startup community is looking to make this nation a hub for smart textile innovation; and while the U.K. lags behind on patent portfolio, it is on the forefront of technology adoption.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q4 2016 Innovation in Smart Textiles Moves from Materials to Analytics

Wearable electronics are moving beyond wrist worn devices into other forms of apparel that collect data, analyze it, and act on the insight. In this report, we explore how smart apparel is made smart via various means of sensor integration. Smart apparel can have sensors incorporated via weaving, printing or integration of standalone sensors, that will lead to varying levels of obtrusiveness, sensor function, flexibility, and washability,. While the sensor integration may vary, the subsequent development steps remain the same, with capabilities mostly limited by removable clips. Most devices currently on the market have removable electronic clips that cannot be washed. Future innovations will more seamlessly integrate these components via printing and weaving rather than attaching standalone sensors. While the current innovation is occurring in hardware, future innovation will move beyond the hardware to the analytics and future focus will be more around the value that the device provides to the user.
 

Q4 2016 Emerging Technologies to Watch in 2017

The Lux Research team is constantly uncovering innovative ideas – novel technologies, creative new business models, and emerging growth opportunities. But while it's easy to find reports of new technologies that are purported to be transformative, they're often lacking the context or critical analysis to understand the real market opportunities, and the strategies to capitalize on them. In contrast, when a Lux analyst spots a new idea, her first instinct is to try to break it down, poke holes in it, find out why it won't work – and in many cases, it is does not pass muster. So those that do pass Lux’s vetting process really have something to them, as these are the ideas that can really have an effect on our lives, our businesses, and our world. Each year we challenge the analyst team to say what technology or trend they're following that has the greatest potential to transform the world over the over the next decade. Here are some of the ideas Lux is following as we start 2017.
 

Q4 2016 A Sensor a Day Keeps the Doctor Away: How Digital Technology is Keeping Workers Safe

Workplace injuries have long been a concern to employers, and many oil and gas, manufacturing, construction, and transportation companies have put traditional safety mechanisms in place. However, even though workplace accidents are an old issue and old solutions exist, the perfect formula for keeping workers safe has yet to be cracked. To address the plateau of workplace injuries, an array of startups is now tackling the worker safety problem via digital means. In this report, we examine existing digital worker safety solutions, highlight technological and acceptance obstacles they face, and assess whether these solutions truly address employers’ needs. We also outline action items for developers and end-users, so that together they can deliver on the common vision of an industrial – and safe – internet of things.
 

Coatings
Date Title & Description
Q2 2016 Advanced Materials: Taxonomy Update

We are updating the Advanced Materials coverage taxonomy to reflect a continually changing landscape of emerging material and processing technologies. The main branches of the advanced materials taxonomy divide material technologies into three main categories of emerging technologies: Surfaces, structures, and future material platforms. "Surfaces" includes coating and surface treatment technologies that impart or enhance material properties. "Structures" includes materials used to form the bulk composition of parts, and key advances in the process technologies used to produce and process them. "Future material platforms" includes novel, emerging material technologies that offer high long-term disruptive potential by increasing the range of what properties future materials can offer.
 

Q2 2016 Wools Are Here to Stay, Foams Under Pressure: Building Envelope Insulation Update 2016

This report looks at recent developments in new insulation materials and radiation management options for the building envelope. Rock wool and glass wool are still solid solutions with a very good price / performance ratio. Foams, such PU or PS however are vulnerable to be disrupted by developments like aerogels. Radiation management is attracting much more attention and the first dynamic materials to manage infrared transparency have reached the market. The report provides market size estimates for the various technologies.
 

Q2 2016 Scratching the Surface: Opportunity and Strategy in Protective Coatings

Protective coatings serve a critical function fighting corrosion, wear, friction, and fouling in a diverse range of industries. The lure of this large market entices multinationals and start-ups alike, but there are a dizzying array of coating options and a host of technology, business, and regulatory challenges. To assist end users and coating developers, we sized four key markets for protective coatings and the penetration of hydrophobic functional coatings, positioned start-ups with novel coating solutions on the Lux Innovation Grid, and developed strategy scenarios for the turbulent oil and gas space.
 

Q2 2016 10 Global Hotspots for Bio-based Material and Chemical Innovation

The Bio-based Material and Chemical (BBMC) industry spans the globe, with innovation and commercialization being driven by companies of all sizes, from early stage startups to large multinationals. This report analyzes the startup landscape and commercialization focused market announcements within the BBMC space to identify the top 10 global hotspots for BBMC innovation. In addition, this report assesses the global picture to determine trends, lessons learned, and calls out specific case studies of note.
 

Q4 2016 Emerging Technologies to Watch in 2017

The Lux Research team is constantly uncovering innovative ideas – novel technologies, creative new business models, and emerging growth opportunities. But while it's easy to find reports of new technologies that are purported to be transformative, they're often lacking the context or critical analysis to understand the real market opportunities, and the strategies to capitalize on them. In contrast, when a Lux analyst spots a new idea, her first instinct is to try to break it down, poke holes in it, find out why it won't work – and in many cases, it is does not pass muster. So those that do pass Lux’s vetting process really have something to them, as these are the ideas that can really have an effect on our lives, our businesses, and our world. Each year we challenge the analyst team to say what technology or trend they're following that has the greatest potential to transform the world over the over the next decade. Here are some of the ideas Lux is following as we start 2017.
 

BioElectronics
Date Title & Description
Q1 2015 Finding the Emerging Technologies That Will Shape the World

The Lux Research team is constantly uncovering innovative ideas – novel technologies, creative new business models, and emerging growth opportunities. But while reports of new technologies purported to be transformative can be found in many places, they're often lacking the context or critical analysis to understand the real market opportunities, and the strategies to capitalize on them. In contrast, when a Lux analyst spots a new idea, her first instinct is to try to break it down, poke holes in it, find out why it won't work – and in many cases, it is does not pass muster. So those that do pass Lux’s vetting process really have something to them, as these are the ideas that can really have an effect on our lives, our businesses, and our world. From time to time we challenge the analyst team to give the idea from their research – whether it's a theme, a trend, a market, a company, a technology – that they think will have the biggest impact over the next five to 10 years. Here's some of the ideas Lux is following as we start 2015.
 

Q1 2015 Sensing (is) the Future of Health Care: Technology Roadmapping Helps Find the Way

Medical devices incorporating sensors have been a vital part of hospital-based care for many years, but have found very little traction in diagnostics and monitoring outside of traditional centralized care settings. Recent regulatory and insurance trends, as well as the medical devices industry’s response to the challenges facing health care systems, have started to paint a different picture for the future of sensors as the key enablers for the shift towards decentralized, patient-centric health care. New generations of sensors are becoming cheaper, smaller, and more accessible. Wireless communication standards have evolved to allow sensors on or around patients to securely transmit data, greatly improving patient mobility and sensor utility. At the same time, significant increases in computing power are enabling automatic analysis of sensor data, while the advent of networking and cloud computing allows users to store and access data from almost anywhere. Understanding which technologies to develop and how to position them in the right market segments is paramount to success for companies looking to capitalize on the future growth. This report investigates key sensing technology families and forecasts their likely adoption curves in several key clinical indication spaces.
 

Q2 2015 Health Care Microfluidics Value Chain: A Story of Growing Pains

There has been a significant development in the field of microfluidics in recent years, which has led to a maturing of the technology and growth in applications and products. Today, microfluidic devices are present in several health care applications, ranging from diagnostics to analytics to drug discovery, formulation, and delivery. However, the advantages and motivations for adopting microfluidic technologies are highly-dependent on the targeted application, leading to a large number of undifferentiated small players developing unique designs and devices. Our assessment of the microfluidics industry suggests a large degree of fragmentation in the value chain. For our clients to better understand the way the microfluidics industry will potentially develop, Lux Research thinks the path is to first have a better understanding of the current value chains.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q3 2015 Powerful Medicine: Opportunities for Pairing New Bioelectronics Devices With Innovative Energy Storage

The separate areas of medical technologies and energy storage are each innovating in parallel, but there is an increasing opportunity for developers to combine the two into health care devices that offer greater functionality, improved safety, and more comfortable form factors using the latest technology in batteries and other innovations for powering devices. We identify and analyze the need for long-lasting, advanced medical devices in key application areas: a) implantable devices, b) wearable, on-the-body devices, and c) standalone devices, either handheld or desktop. Our analysis highlights the key pain points of these applications, and uses the proprietary Lux Innovation Grid to identify key developers that are already making an impact on medical devices, with technologies ranging from Li-ion to thin-film batteries.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Date Title & Description
Q1 2015 A Data-Driven Approach to Sustainability Benchmarking

Higher quality and quantity reporting of corporate resource efficiency is enabling the transition of corporate sustainability from ad hoc, show case projects to a more data driven discipline. In this sense, the comparison of self-reported data for peer companies reveals important trends in a given sector, and allows corporations to benchmark their performance against competition. With this data in hand, the application of deeper analytics around energy, emissions and water efficiencies is possible for companies to effectively focus operational, marketing and R&D resources. In particular, the use of Lux Grid Network Analytics enables Corporate Sustainability Officers and Business Managers to determine the best locations for deploying renewable energy, energy efficiency, and water efficiency projects.
 

Q1 2015 Exploring the Opportunity for 3D Printing in Building and Construction

3D printing is no longer a novelty showcase item in the building and construction industry. Many applications of 3D printing, such as interior decoration and architectural glass coatings, are already at early commercial stage. Challenges like developing the appropriate ink rheology and meeting building codes abound, but so do the opportunities to save construction time and enable design flexibility. This report summarizes the ongoing activities of the leading companies in construction value chain in 3D printing. It also identifies 25 small innovative companies and provides a framework for large corporations to identify most suitable partners among these. Finally, the report evaluates the maturity of 3D printing technologies for different building applications, and advises clients on how to tweak their collaboration strategy based on the application and the partner company.
 

Q1 2015 Finding the Emerging Technologies That Will Shape the World

The Lux Research team is constantly uncovering innovative ideas – novel technologies, creative new business models, and emerging growth opportunities. But while reports of new technologies purported to be transformative can be found in many places, they're often lacking the context or critical analysis to understand the real market opportunities, and the strategies to capitalize on them. In contrast, when a Lux analyst spots a new idea, her first instinct is to try to break it down, poke holes in it, find out why it won't work – and in many cases, it is does not pass muster. So those that do pass Lux’s vetting process really have something to them, as these are the ideas that can really have an effect on our lives, our businesses, and our world. From time to time we challenge the analyst team to give the idea from their research – whether it's a theme, a trend, a market, a company, a technology – that they think will have the biggest impact over the next five to 10 years. Here's some of the ideas Lux is following as we start 2015.
 

Q1 2015 Investigating the Economics of Integrated Lighting Technologies

Lighting in commercial buildings expends more than 20% of energy by end-use, totaling more than $27 billion annually in the U.S. alone. While lamp efficiency and controls are often targeted for efficiency gains, integrated lighting – which combines daylighting measures with light sensing and control – can result in significant energy and cost savings. Though active and passive daylighting have been neglected by large lighting manufacturers, startups have filled this gap. In this report, we evaluate the landscape of integrated lighting solutions, and model the performance of several technologies in a commercial office environment; we chose Los Angeles and Tokyo to provide sufficient geographic variation. Active and passive daylighting measures are weighted heavily by high capex compared to daylight and occupancy sensing. Simple paybacks are longer than five years in all but one instance, compared with less than 10 months for sensors. One winning strategy is to combine daylighting technologies, such as solar control film, with sensing capability – boosting IRR to 24%. Strong product potential exists for after-market films, along with wireless daylight and occupancy sensors; however, other daylighting technologies will need a broader value proposition than energy savings alone.
 

Energy Electronics
Date Title & Description
Q1 2015 Finding the Emerging Technologies That Will Shape the World

The Lux Research team is constantly uncovering innovative ideas – novel technologies, creative new business models, and emerging growth opportunities. But while reports of new technologies purported to be transformative can be found in many places, they're often lacking the context or critical analysis to understand the real market opportunities, and the strategies to capitalize on them. In contrast, when a Lux analyst spots a new idea, her first instinct is to try to break it down, poke holes in it, find out why it won't work – and in many cases, it is does not pass muster. So those that do pass Lux’s vetting process really have something to them, as these are the ideas that can really have an effect on our lives, our businesses, and our world. From time to time we challenge the analyst team to give the idea from their research – whether it's a theme, a trend, a market, a company, a technology – that they think will have the biggest impact over the next five to 10 years. Here's some of the ideas Lux is following as we start 2015.
 

Q1 2015 Sorting Through the Maze of Silicon Innovations in Power Electronics

Silicon (Si) today is the standard semiconductor material used widely in all power devices and circuits ranging from smart phones, electric vehicles (EVs), to industrial equipment. Silicon based discrete power electronics is set to dominate the market for the next decade, reaching $20 billion by 2024. Even as wide band gap materials (WBG) such as gallium nitride (GaN) and silicon carbide (SiC) threaten silicon’s market share, new silicon-based technology innovations look to extend silicon’s dominance by driving performance and footprint benefits in power modules across all application segments. This report will highlight the leading developers of these innovative solutions using silicon and sort through the list of companies to find leaders and laggards in each of the end markets.
 

Q2 2015 Taking an Unmet Needs Approach to Roadmap Technology Adoption in Power Electronics

Every end market - consumer electronics, transportation, renewables, buildings & industrial - has different unmet needs for size and weight of the modules, thermal management and power conversion efficiency improvement. Various technology innovations include materials such as gallium nitride (GaN) and silicon carbide (SiC), architectural innovations such as circuit design and control methods, and balance of systems innovations such as in thermal interface materials (TIM) and secondary heat sinks. This report will evaluate which of these technology innovations best satisfy unmet needs in every application. In addition, this report roadmaps the adoption of each of these technologies in the near- (two years), medium- (four years), and long-term (more than four years).

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q2 2015 Analyzing the NXP-Freescale Merger and Its Impact on the Automotive Sector

NXP announced in March 2015 that it has decided to merge with Freescale Semiconductor in a deal that values Freescale at $11.8 billion. While Freescale is a leader in microcontrollers for automotive, NXP has strength in car-to-X communication systems and security for cars. This report will examine what works in this merger specific to the automotive sector, where both companies have a big focus and where the combined NXP-Freescale entity will still struggle. This report will conclude by highlighting similar companies, such as NXP and Freescale, that are sure to be the next suitors or acquisition targets.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Q3 2015 Power Electronics Competitive Innovation Assessment

Key players in the power electronics industry, including Infineon, ABB, Cree, and Rohm, are all looking to capture market share in individual end markets through technology innovation and differentiated market strategies. Some of this critical innovation includes pushing the limits of silicon’s performance to investing in new material flavors, such as gallium nitride (GaN) and silicon carbide (SiC). Market players need to be aware that this growth in power electronics is not a sure-fire promise of success. Established suppliers and new players in the market face different challenges. They need to position themselves appropriately in the international market and increase their capacity for innovation if they want to profit from the developments in this industry. This report looks at the leading developers globally across three different geographies – Europe, Asia, and the U.S. – to evaluate who comes out on top and which companies are struggling to make it in the power electronics industry.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Connected Objects and Platforms
Date Title & Description
Q1 2015 Information Meets Matter: Following the Data to Find Opportunity

Critical trends in connectivity and intelligence are emerging, captured by buzzwords like “The Internet of Things” and “Big Data”. While the hype is plentiful, actionable strategies for leveraging this trend are not. At the core, these concepts are about embedding intelligence in both objects, and a system of collected objects as a whole – the convergence of information and matter. While exorbitant projections of the market opportunity are readily available, there is urgent need for guidance on how connectivity will drive opportunity across the value chain, and how different players can build a value proposition for their technologies to access the massive untapped opportunity buried beneath the hype. 
 

Wearable and Flexible Electronics
Date Title & Description
Q1 2015 Future of the Touch: Finding Opportunities of Touch-Panel Technologies in the Market of the Future

Touch panels are now ubiquitous and continue to grow, enabling new applications and material opportunities. However, understanding which technologies to develop and how to position them in the right market segments remains a challenge. In this report, we evaluate usability of the top five touch-panel technologies (p-cap, embedded, resistance, IR, and SAW) based on performance metrics, analyze how they are matched with the eight key market segments based on their usability requirements, and detail the gaps between technology capability and market needs. Expect projected capacitance panels to penetrate further into both consumer and non-consumer markets, and embedded panels to grow fastest in medium-size consumer devices.
 

Q1 2015 Finding the Emerging Technologies That Will Shape the World

The Lux Research team is constantly uncovering innovative ideas – novel technologies, creative new business models, and emerging growth opportunities. But while reports of new technologies purported to be transformative can be found in many places, they're often lacking the context or critical analysis to understand the real market opportunities, and the strategies to capitalize on them. In contrast, when a Lux analyst spots a new idea, her first instinct is to try to break it down, poke holes in it, find out why it won't work – and in many cases, it is does not pass muster. So those that do pass Lux’s vetting process really have something to them, as these are the ideas that can really have an effect on our lives, our businesses, and our world. From time to time we challenge the analyst team to give the idea from their research – whether it's a theme, a trend, a market, a company, a technology – that they think will have the biggest impact over the next five to 10 years. Here's some of the ideas Lux is following as we start 2015.
 

Q2 2015 Ordering the Chaos: Using a Taxonomy to Understand the Wild State of Wearables

Wearable electronics have been receiving increasing attention, with new devices coming to market on nearly a daily basis. While some high profile devices, like the Apple Watch, guide public perception of the technology, the landscape of developers and devices is highly varied. In order to understand the wearables landscape, we developed a wearables taxonomy across three major categories – applications, form factors, and components – and used that taxonomy to categorize 231 wearable devices. This survey enables us to understand the immediate trends, such as nearly half of all devices being wrist-worn, and find underserved areas like smart phone replacements, which have their own connectivity and do not need to be paired to a separate device, and will be increasing attractive as components shrink in size.
 

Q2 2015 Are Wearables the Killer Application for Flexible Electronics? Finding the Overlaps, Gaps, and Leaders

Printed, Flexible, and Organic Electronic (PFOE) technologies promise conformable, adaptable, and immersive wearable devices. Yet, wearables today still rely on the conventional components from the mobile device supply chain. So how and where can PFOE technologies find entry into wearable devices? In order to address this, we analyze more than 180,000 patent publications since 2010 globally, as well as, for Samsung, the leading patent holder for both PFOE and wearables. We find that while the overall WFE patent pool has been growing at a CAGR of 18%, few of the patents fall into both PFOE and wearables. While some PFOE technology areas like OLED have received significant attention in wearable, other like e-paper displays are overlooked, but offer significant opportunity to address the key needs of wearables.

Download Key Takeaways from this Report

Big Data
Date Title & Description
Q1 2015 Information Meets Matter: Following the Data to Find Opportunity

Critical trends in connectivity and intelligence are emerging, captured by buzzwords like “The Internet of Things” and “Big Data”. While the hype is plentiful, actionable strategies for leveraging this trend are not. At the core, these concepts are about embedding intelligence in both objects, and a system of collected objects as a whole – the convergence of information and matter. While exorbitant projections of the market opportunity are readily available, there is urgent need for guidance on how connectivity will drive opportunity across the value chain, and how different players can build a value proposition for their technologies to access the massive untapped opportunity buried beneath the hype. 
 

Q1 2015 Information Meets Matter: Devising Big Data Strategies for Real-World Industries

Big Data is a moving target, as a growing number of sensors and sophistication of connected objects increase the volume, velocity, and variety of information in the world. Material-centric industries chase Big Data visions like Precision Agriculture, Industry 4.0 in Manufacturing, Digital Oilfields, and Intelligent Cities. But the benefits are less clear than to information industries like banking and media, while risks are greater. To develop a Big Data strategy, real-world industries need to start with use cases before leaping into hype.
 

Q2 2015 Big Data in Precision Agriculture

Feeding more people with less input while improving the environment – it may be the biggest challenge facing the world, and farmers have to solve it. Fortunately, it’s certainly possible – we just need to know where the waste is, and how to cut it or avoid it in the first place. From chemical inputs to labor and cashflow, big data can be a grower’s most flexible tool for increasing the efficiency of food production.
 

Pages