Research Schedule

Existing photovoltaic (PV) metallization techniques are far from optimal across the three incumbent technologies – crystalline silicon (x-Si), copper indium gallium (di)selenide (CIGS), and cadmium telluride (CdTe) – resulting in efficiency loss, high cost of metallization materials, and low yields. With the push for cost reductions across the entire PV value chain, optimization is needed. This report covers innovations in metallization techniques which address the key metallization issues.

Turning Lemons into Lemonade: Opportunities in the Turbulent Photovoltaic Equipment Market

The existing overcapacity in the PV market has resulted in low capacity utilization and frozen plans for capacity expansion. However, x-Si, CIGS, and CdTe cell and module manufacturers are turning to core product differentiation to revamp margins – leaving an opportunity for PV equipment manufacturers, by way of reducing production costs and improving module efficiencies. Furthermore, equipment manufacturers must adjust as new active semiconductor materials – such as epitaxial Si, CZTS, and GaAs – make their push into the PV market.

Module Cost Structure Update: Path to Profitability

In 2011, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) released a vision study that estimated that by reducing system prices to $1/W and module prices to $0.50/W by 2020, solar could generate 14% of the U.S.’s electricity by 2030 and 27% by 2050 without government subsidies. With severe oversupply and recently crashing polysilicon prices, module prices have dropped precipitously – as low as $0.70/W from top-tier Chinese players. However, the cost of goods sold (COGS) for modules has largely not reached this level, resulting in massive net losses for a majority of module manufacturers. With pressure from competitors, customers, and policy-makers to drop prices even further, manufacturers need to drive costs down to survive and thrive during the coming years of growth in the demand market. In a detailed cost and sensitivity analysis, we analyze the impacts of drivers like low-cost manufacturing locations, high efficiency, increased capacity utilization, and higher production yields on module COGS, as well as identify the incumbent technologies poised to take advantage of these downward cost drivers.

With subsidies for solar evaporating in developed, highly-penetrated markets, emerging markets with high solar resources will see demand grow at unprecedented rates. The shifting dynamic opens the door for high-concentrating photovoltaics (HCPV), as it is projected to display the fastest relative growth when compared with incumbent photovoltaic (PV) technologies. In this report, we take a close look at the cost structure and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of HCPV systems with four different optics types and consider the factors that can reduce costs, such as efficiency improvements, economies of scale, and increased access to project capital. Considering current market trends, expect to see HCPV fully competitive with crystalline silicon technology on an LCOE basis before 2020 – though whether any firms will remain alive to compete then is in question.

Reaping Profits from Biomass, Solar, and Fuel Cell On-Site Generation

As emerging technologies increase in scale and maturity, and Fortune 500 companies commit to more sustainable operations, diesel generators’ vice-like grip on the building on-site generation market is loosening. Adoption inertia has begun to give way with the growth of distributed solar, and that wave will continue with the adoption of biomass gasifiers and boilers, and fuel cells – as long as those systems can prove economic feasibility. Those economics will be aided by rising energy prices and incentives to avoid carbon dioxide emissions, but the most impactful factor – system cost reduction – is in the hands of technology suppliers and their partners.

Past is Prologue: Market Selection Strategy in a New Solar Policy Environment

While 2011 was a boom year for solar installations in key markets like Germany and Italy, 2012 quickly became the year of tempered expectations, as module and balance-of-systems prices crashed, and feed-in tariffs were cut in kind. Moving into 2013, the solar industry finds itself at a pivot point, where it must adjust and thrive in a cost-conscious environment and leverage new policies to its advantage. As feed-in tariffs fade in favor of renewable portfolio standards and net metering schemes, suppliers and stakeholders are tasked with redefining target market strategy. In this report, we shed a light on the future of solar policy, and provide guidance on prosperous short- and long-term markets for solar stakeholders. While some historically strong demand markets will continue to pay dividends, the real winners going forward will need to make a few well-informed bets.

Grid Storage Under the Microscope: Using Local Knowledge to Forecast Global Demand

Grid Storage Battery Cost Breakdown: Exploring Paths to Accelerate Adoption

The high capital cost of emerging grid storage technologies is the single largest barrier to their widespread adoption. Technology developers make bold claims about performance enhancements and economies of scale that will allow dramatic reductions in capital cost, yet costs remain prohibitively high for all technologies except in the most valuable applications. In this report we built production cost models of lithium-ion, sodium nickel chloride, and vanadium-redox flow battery systems for small- to large-scale grid storage systems to gain an understanding of the key cost components for each technology, drivers that will facilitate cost reduction, and constraints to innovative material and manufacturing approaches. Our baseline scenarios for grid-tied systems indicate that by 2022 lithium-ion batteries will reach $506/kWh, ZEBRA batteries will approach $473/kWh, and vanadium redox flow batteries will hit $783/kWh, although each chemistry will follow a different route to these cost floors. We then evaluated the ample opportunities for disruptive innovations in each chemistry’s development that may enable competitors to dramatically reduce costs and drive global market adoption.

Cloudy with a Chance of Energy: Evaluating Technologies to Manage Grid Intermittency

Utilities have long known that renewables will impact the grid, but have yet to define and quantify the impact in any usable way. In this report, we define intermittency and determine the optimal mix of baseload and flexible generation coupled with emerging technologies required to integrate more than 30% wind and solar generation into grid. Emerging automated demand response programs are the lowest cost option, but are limited to being capable of managing only the highest 2% of demand. At current natural gas prices, electricity can be generated by natural gas power plants cheaper than it can be stored and shifted by any grid storage technology. However, unbridled natural gas use with 30% renewables and no storage will unavoidably result in the curtailment of renewably generated electricity. To minimize curtailment, utilities will have to install enough grid storage to capture and shift at least 0.5% of the total electricity generated over the course of the year.

The Great Compression: The Future of the Hydrogen Economy

Politicians, economists, and environmentalists have dreamt of a hydrogen economy for decades, where hydrogen fuel cells provide a significant portion of our power demand for stationary and transport applications. Meanwhile, fuel cell developers often attribute the painfully slow fuel cell adoption rates to the lack of a ubiquitous hydrogen supply chain. To illuminate this issue, we offer a detailed analysis of the entire cost of hydrogen generation, distribution, storage, and consumption in an effort to find the greatest bottlenecks and opportunities. By analyzing both hydrogen supply and demand, we determine that the hydrogen fuel cell market will reach $3 billion in 2030, held back by the cost of the fuel cell itself. Building on this, we find that hydrogen demand from fuel cells will total 140 million kg in 2030, a meager 0.56% of global hydrogen demand.

The automobile is at a turning point, unprecedented in its more than 100-year history. Rising gas prices and stricter fuel economy standards, a progressively more impatient and environmentally conscious customer base, and forward-looking innovations in business models, ranging from car-sharing to on-board telematics, are forcing OEMs to evolve or risk being left in the dust. What’s more, core attributes of a vehicle’s cultural, technological, and economic roles are coming into question as megatrends like sustainability, materials, and urbanization converge on the car. This report dives under the hood of the growing web of cross-cutting industry relationships to separate the leading innovators from the lone wolves in the ever-changing autosphere.

Charging Ahead: Finding Reality in the Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment Market

As government policy and investment drives automotive companies to develop plug-in vehicles, the technology for delivering electricity to these vehicles has taken off, as well. If battery-powered vehicles do take off in large volumes, the infrastructure to fuel these vehicles is a critical opportunity because of the chance to partially or completely displace petroleum and fuel the next generation of vehicles. We find that the global electric-vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) market will reach $1.2 billion in 2020, but basic level 1 charging in residential applications will continue to dominate the market.

The Great Compression: The Future of the Hydrogen Economy

Politicians, economists, and environmentalists have dreamt of a hydrogen economy for decades, where hydrogen fuel cells provide a significant portion of our power demand for stationary and transport applications. Meanwhile, fuel cell developers often attribute the painfully slow fuel cell adoption rates to the lack of a ubiquitous hydrogen supply chain. To illuminate this issue, we offer a detailed analysis of the entire cost of hydrogen generation, distribution, storage, and consumption in an effort to find the greatest bottlenecks and opportunities. By analyzing both hydrogen supply and demand, we determine that the hydrogen fuel cell market will reach $3 billion in 2030, held back by the cost of the fuel cell itself. Building on this, we find that hydrogen demand from fuel cells will total 140 million kg in 2030, a meager 0.56% of global hydrogen demand.

The automobile is at a turning point, unprecedented in its more than 100-year history. Rising gas prices and stricter fuel economy standards, a progressively more impatient and environmentally conscious customer base, and forward-looking innovations in business models, ranging from car-sharing to on-board telematics, are forcing OEMs to evolve or risk being left in the dust. What’s more, core attributes of a vehicle’s cultural, technological, and economic roles are coming into question as megatrends like sustainability, materials, and urbanization converge on the car. This report dives under the hood of the growing web of cross-cutting industry relationships to separate the leading innovators from the lone wolves in the ever-changing autosphere.

Reaping Profits from Biomass, Solar, and Fuel Cell On-Site Generation

As emerging technologies increase in scale and maturity, and Fortune 500 companies commit to more sustainable operations, diesel generators’ vice-like grip on the building on-site generation market is loosening. Adoption inertia has begun to give way with the growth of distributed solar, and that wave will continue with the adoption of biomass gasifiers and boilers, and fuel cells – as long as those systems can prove economic feasibility. Those economics will be aided by rising energy prices and incentives to avoid carbon dioxide emissions, but the most impactful factor – system cost reduction – is in the hands of technology suppliers and their partners.

Leading Alternative Fuel Developers Race to Real Revenue in 2013

The alternative fuels sector continues to steadily progress, revealing some lucrative home-runs as well as ill-fated disappointments. Shale gas disrupted the North American energy landscape, and its ripples were felt worldwide. But with the fuels market on the order of trillions of dollars, opportunities for an array of technological solutions exist. To best assess the alternative fuels sector, we refined the crowded landscape into eight categories: crop modification, pretreatment, algae, gasification, bioprocessing, pyrolysis, torrefaction, and catalytic conversion. We then analyzed companies occupying each category using our Lux Innovation Grid methodology, a tool that ranks companies on business execution, technincal value, and maturity. This allows readers to quickly identify potential partnership and investment opportunities that best fits their individual needs.

Finding Feedstocks for the Bio-Based Fuels and Chemicals of Today and 2030

Biofuels and biochemicals create more than a billion metric tons of material requirements annually. Climbing production increases feedstock demand over the next two decades to nearly 2 billion metric tons of sugar-yielding crops, 310 million metric tons of oilseeds, 867 million metric tons of cellulosic biomass, and 491 million metric tons of waste feedstocks. By 2030, several regions will encounter major stress on available biomass, as aggressive biofuel mandates require large masses of sugars, cellulosic biomass, and waste feedstocks. When expectations on biomass exceed what productivity gains can’t deliver, feedstock innovation will be instrumental. Key areas of innovation focus on crop modification, new value chain configurations, agronomic technology improvements like irrigation, and biosensors.

The expense of capital and operations still largely limit bio-based materials and chemicals to a few facilities located where corn and cane are plentiful and cheap. If not just individual factories, but the entire green chemicals industry is to scale up, the industry needs to cultivate greater volumes of cheap, local biomass, convert a wider range of feedstocks like waste and cellulosic material to intermediates, and process those intermediates into higher-value chemicals. This report models cost drivers in gasification, enzymatic hydrolysis of cellulosics, and algae cultivation to find opportunities where new technologies can turn them to profit.

Bridging the Divide between Demands and Bio-Based Materials

Materials that fail to connect with end-user demands never make it across the perilous commercialization divide. To make that connection, developers must aim for large, addressable markets, among which the biggest are composites and coatings, industrial manufactured intermediates, and packaging. But to reach that aim, developers must offer bio-based alternatives at cost parity, offer more bio-based drop-in monomers, and continue to close performance gaps on temperature distortion and brittleness, as well as advance bio-based polymers beyond their reputation as merely “disposable.”

Finding Feedstocks for the Bio-Based Fuels and Chemicals of Today and 2030

Biofuels and biochemicals create more than a billion metric tons of material requirements annually. Climbing production increases feedstock demand over the next two decades to nearly 2 billion metric tons of sugar-yielding crops, 310 million metric tons of oilseeds, 867 million metric tons of cellulosic biomass, and 491 million metric tons of waste feedstocks. By 2030, several regions will encounter major stress on available biomass, as aggressive biofuel mandates require large masses of sugars, cellulosic biomass, and waste feedstocks. When expectations on biomass exceed what productivity gains can’t deliver, feedstock innovation will be instrumental. Key areas of innovation focus on crop modification, new value chain configurations, agronomic technology improvements like irrigation, and biosensors.

The current decade has seen global dynamics driving metamorphosis in response to changing economic strengths, market needs, and government focuses. As this trend continues to grow, tapping into emerging economies will become increasingly crucial for the long-term survival and growth of businesses. It remains to be seen whether incumbents or new players in the formulation and delivery space are sufficiently flexible to embrace these changes and take flight. Through interviews and polls with global players across the formulation and delivery value chain, this report examines key factors that determine initiation and success of partnerships for companies seeking to attack opportunities in emerging markets.

As one of the most lucrative economic activities globally, the drug industry is facing an unprecedented level of challenges, threatening to crumble even the largest of players. While oral deliveries remain the dominant mode of drug delivery, with a flagging pipeline and the influx of direct as well as indirect competitors, the flexibility of devices presents as the potential and proverbial light at the end of the tunnel. Investigating the characteristics of US$300 billion worth of top-selling drug products, this report explores and identifies opportunities for the entry of drug-delivery devices.

Ranking Emerging Delivery Technologies: Scouring the Toolbox to Find a Nut to Fit the Bolt

Recovering from a particularly rough patch, the drug industry is in the midst of a revolution. Doing away with the all-in-one, large-pharma blockbuster model, and welcoming the niftier open innovation structure, scavenging old actives or value-adding existing products remains the new normal to tide over this landmark period. Continual focus on formulation and delivery technologies to enable this transition encourages a flourish of technology developers. However, increasingly stiff competition reveals those with the X-factor for specific applications to those who are undifferentiated. Using the Lux Innovation Grid, this report segregates these developers for easier digestion.

Islands of Innovation in a Blooming ASEAN – A Formulation and Delivery Perspective

Move over, BRIC. Hello, ASEAN. To save themselves from financial woes in the traditionally robust economies of U.S. and Europe, companies have, over the decade, shoved and pushed their way into the “emerging economies,” particularly China and India. While this had indeed proved to be the right move, with many extracting comparatively high revenues from these regions, the memo is out that these economic giants are slowing down. Lux Research sifts through the bulk of data to elucidate the innovation hotspots in Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), taking particular care in drawing out formulation-and-delivery-related expertise, facilitating an informed decision when tackling this blooming region.

China: One Country, Two Health Care Markets

China is bifurcated into two distinct health care and biopharmaceutical markets. The urban market is rapidly growing due to young people migrating to cities in search of jobs and government policy mandating the physical relocation of whole regional populations into increasingly urban settings – with the concomitant increase in onset of western syndromes and diseases such as obesity and diabetes. This leaves the rural population, which, while dwindling, is still – and will remain – substantially large, primarily comprised of an aging population still suffering from third-world diseases with less access to health resources. This report compares and contrasts the differences in the two markets and details some of the emerging and different opportunities for health care solution providers.

Buildings consume the majority of the world’s energy and are responsible for a majority of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. Energy security, environmental, and livability concerns are driving governments across the world to adopt policy measures promoting green buildings. Policy measures, along with the ability to pay, payback periods, and addressable market size, should determine a firm’s decision on which countries to invest precious market development funds in. In this report, we examine 21 countries on the Lux Nations Ranking Chart and project how the unique policy drivers in each country create an opportunity for specific green-building technologies.

Rapid urbanization over the past five decades has led to environmental issues like air pollution, urban heat-island effect, and loss of green spaces. In response, cities such as Copenhagen, London, Singapore, and Chicago have announced mandates or incentives for vegetated roofs to reduce storm-water volume, clean air pollutants, reduce the urban heat-island effect, and sequester carbon dioxide. There also have been a number of demonstration projects for vegetated walls that offer similar benefits. However, the environmental benefits remain hard to monetize, and questions persist on whether urban vegetation will be a mainstream market or another green curiosity. Here, we examine the drivers as well as barriers for growth in this emerging market, and project the global market size for green roofs and walls from 2012 to 2017.

Balancing Energy Efficiency, Occupant Comfort, and Aesthetics in Architectural Glass

As the use of architectural glass has increased globally, challenges in making the facades and skylights more energy efficient have come to the forefront. Architects and designers are grappling with balancing a number of conflicting requirements such as ensuring sufficient daylight, reducing glare, keeping heating and cooling costs under control, and meeting the aesthetic requirements. A number of emerging technologies, like dynamic windows, smart daylighting facades, skylights, and insulated transparent glazings, can tackle these challenges. In this report, we examine how the specifiers are choosing among these technologies to meet the design requirements, and what opportunities it presents for technology developers.

Buildings consume the majority of the world’s energy and are responsible for a majority of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. Energy security, environmental, and livability concerns are driving governments across the world to adopt policy measures promoting green buildings. Policy measures, along with the ability to pay, payback periods, and addressable market size, should determine a firm’s decision on which countries to invest precious market development funds in. In this report, we examine 21 countries on the Lux Nations Ranking Chart and project how the unique policy drivers in each country create an opportunity for specific green-building technologies.

As emerging technologies increase in scale and maturity, and Fortune 500 companies commit to more sustainable operations, diesel generators’ vice-like grip on the building on-site generation market is loosening. Adoption inertia has begun to give way with the growth of distributed solar, and that wave will continue with the adoption of biomass gasifiers and boilers, and fuel cells – as long as those systems can prove economic feasibility. Those economics will be aided by rising energy prices and incentives to avoid carbon dioxide emissions, but the most impactful factor – system cost reduction – is in the hands of technology suppliers and their partners.

Winning the Jump Ball: Sorting Winners from Losers in LEDs and Power Electronics

Devices that enable energy efficiency, like light-emitting diodes (LEDs) and improved power conversion electronics, are being increasingly recognized as a part of the energy solution. Across the overlapping value chains in these domains a slew of developers are working on innovative materials and system architectures, targeting the primary challenges of cost reduction and manufcaturability. However, this developer set is muddled, with disruptive start-ups and me-too companies in the emerging markets stepping on the toes of litigious multinational corporations. It is also characterized by evolving partnerships and rampant acquisitions to aid vertical integration. In this report, we highlight the key developers of LEDs and power electronics materials, modules, and systems, separating those that present investors, partners, and regulators with immense opportunity from those that represent potential pitfalls. 

Investments in water treatment and conservation technologies have been funded by $3.1 billion in private investments since 2007, and the innovation sector is a fraction of water activity overall. Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) dominate in the water sector with a diverse group of buyers, frustrating venture capitalists who hold initial public offerings (IPO) as the gold standard. In the water industry, M&As dominate and give a better, and more timely, return on investment. While outsiders see it as monolithic, water is a highly fragmented industry. Each sector of water is unique, with different timelines for venture funding, growth equity, and exit windows. Investors and buyers alike will find opportunties in active regions of the hydrocosm.

Farm to Factory: Technology in Reducing Water Risk in the Food and Beverage Industry

World food prices are pushing historic levels as food grown per capita stagnates. Major drivers, from growing affluence ramping up demand for refined foods to the vagaries of climate change, are pressing both industry and agriculture toward novel water solutions. To control water risk, the food industry is expanding its focus beyond processing plants to water savings across the value chain. This report identifies the industries and regions where new investment in water technologies will help feed the world. It highlights top companies that will transform the space and ranks them on the Lux Innovation Grid.

Dropwise: Leveraging the Revolutionary Value of Next-Generation Water Quality Analytics

We size the water quality analytics market at $1.5 billion worldwide, growing at around 5% and fragmented into more than 160 parameters individually ranging from $3 million to $100 million in value. This relatively modest market belies a massive revolution in technology that will add enormous value to industrial and municipal process control. We profile the most promising startups in the space on the Lux Innovation Grid, and profile a wide variety of technologies on the verge of breaking out of the lab. Online instruments with sensitivities in the part-per-billion range and extraordinary specificity are now possible. To remain competitive, companies with footprints in capital-expenditure (CAPEX)-intensive water processes must use these new technologies to transform their efficiency and leverage huge benefits from these relatively inexpensive components. 

With conventional production on the decline since 2006 and 80% of reserves in the hands of national oil companies, producers struggle to find replacement reserves that can bolster balance sheets and offset record production. Their focus is intently on unconventional reserves and improving recovery rates in order to avoid a world energy crisis. New cost-efficient technologies are needed to ensure that production keeps pace with global demand and that reserves are secure for future generations.

The automobile is at a turning point, unprecedented in its more than 100-year history. Rising gas prices and stricter fuel economy standards, a progressively more impatient and environmentally conscious customer base, and forward-looking innovations in business models, ranging from car-sharing to on-board telematics, are forcing OEMs to evolve or risk being left in the dust. What’s more, core attributes of a vehicle’s cultural, technological, and economic roles are coming into question as megatrends like sustainability, materials, and urbanization converge on the car. This report dives under the hood of the growing web of cross-cutting industry relationships to separate the leading innovators from the lone wolves in the ever-changing autosphere.

Stronger, Lighter, Faster…Cheaper? How Innovation Will Affect Carbon Fiber’s Cost and Market Impact

The excellent properties of carbon-fiber reinforced plastics (CFRPs) have long allured material developers and industry users alike. However, due to high costs and other technical hurdles, thus far their use has been restricted to high-end niche applications. In order to forecast the penetration of CFRPs into both major and emerging target industries, we employed a rigorous modeling approach to examine cost reduction technologies at each step fo the manufacturing process, and the potential for these innovations to be combined with industry requirements that drive adoption. Our results reveal that polyolefin-precursor carbon fiber combined with alternative thermal treatment mechanisms will reduce cost from a baseline of $21.2/kg today to $10.5/kg at pilot-line scale in 2017. The total CFRP market will reach $36 billion in 2020, driven by an intense duel between aerospace and wind for overall supremacy, while innovations will advance high-volume automotive at a pedestrian pace.

Is Graphene the Next Silicon ... Or Just the Next Carbon Nanotube?

Graphene has been touted as the next wunderkind material for the better part of this millennium, due to its exceptional mechanical, electronic, and thermal properties. However, one look at the rocky history of carbon nanotubes shows that a research and patent boom along with impressive technical performance is far from a guarantee of commercial success, as major challenges like high costs, processing issues, and competing emerging material classes loom large. What’s more, a slew of recent capacity expansion announcements threaten to throw the space into oversupply. We assess the leading developers on the Lux Innovation Grid and forecast the future market potential across a range of applications. Our results reveal that the aggregate graphene market will grow to $126 million in 2020, with graphene nanoplatelets (GNPs) for composites and energy storage applications contributing the bulk of demand.

The worldwide medical device market is over $300 billion annually, but there is increasing pressure from governments, insurers, and patients to bring down healthcare costs. Printed, flexible, and organic electronics have the opportunity to lower costs while also improving the overall quality of care and generating substantial markets. A winning device requires the right combination of sensor, treatment, and/ or electrode technologies and the right market fit. However, many of these technologies have been overhyped, and sorting out real potential is critical. We assess emerging sensor, treatment, and electrode technologies across eight markets to uncover substantial business opportunities for printed, flexible, and organic electronics in healthcare.

Inking Money: The Prospects for Materials in Printed Electronics

Printed electronics promises the ability to manufacture devices through low-cost, high-throughput manufacturing. However, to realize this potential, it requires the right materials and inks. We focus on three materials areas – opaque conductive inks and pastes, transparent conductors, and semiconductors, presenting a total opportunity of $2.6 billion in 2017. Opaque conductive inks will grow to $2.4 billion in 2017, with medical and RFID among the fastest-growing segments. However, silver paste will still dominate, and other materials will only find traction in solar applications. ITO replacement transparent conductive films will grow to $705 million, with $112 million coming from the inks, but the majority of this market will come from a single application, smartphone touch screens, leading to a wide range of potential growth scenarios. Printed semiconductors will grow to $68 million in 2017 with display applications leading the way.

Printing for Profits: Investments and Opportunities in Printed, Flexible, and Organic Electronics

From 1996 to 2012, venture capitalists (VCs) invested $7.5 billion into printed, flexible, and organic electronics, chasing the space’s potential to displace incumbent technologies – as the $2 billion organic light-emitting diode (OLED) display market in smart phones demonstrated in replacing liquid crystal displays (LCDs). These technologies are also forging new markets that were previously not addressable with incumbent solutions – such as the smart packaging industry. VC interest has created considerable hype, leading to investment in the space peaking in 2007 with $990 million. Since then, several high-profile bankruptcies – such as Konarka Technologies, Polymer Vision, and Evident Technologies – have soured many investors’ impression of this space, and investment has since declined, reaching $626 million in 2011. To guide investors in sorting out real potential from the pack, we evaluated technologies on their technical value potential and amount invested, and identified five underfunded, high-potential technologies – electrochromics, electrowetting displays, metal oxide thin-film transistors (MOTFTs), touch sensors, and metal nanowire transparent conductive films (TCFs). However, there are many technology areas, including organic photovoltaics (OPV), thin-film batteries, and microelectomechanical systems (MEMS) displays that are overfunded, with low technical value potential and large investments already committed. Finally, we identified Dow, Intel, and Samsung as the trendsetters among corporate venture capitalists (CVCs), with high investment activity and the investment going into high-value technologies, whereas most CVCs lag with lower activity, with several dabblers, such as GE, missing the mark on their investments.

Cost is the name of the game with LEDs, but most of the time, the focus is entirely on the package. We evaluated the opportunity for cost reduction through materials and technology innovation in the balance of system, including thermal management, drivers, and optics. We find that today’s technology solutions fall short of the dramatic cost reductions needed to mirror the LED package and alternate solutions are ineffective and uneconomical – presenting opportunities for technology innovation.

Price or Performance: Bulk GaN Vies with Silicon for Value in LEDs, Power Electronics and Laser Diodes

Wide-band-gap semiconductor materials such as gallium nitride (GaN) have superior material properties compared to silicon for use in devices like power electronics, laser diodes, and light-emitting diodes (LEDs). Where devices based on GaN-on-silicon substrates grow, bulk GaN substrates offer the potential to improve device performance, albeit at higher cost. We evaluated the manufacturing costs of bulk GaN substrates and the added cost of GaN epitaxy, and compared the result to the alternative GaN-on-silicon approach. GaN-on-silicon will remain the low-cost solution for wafers, but GaN-on-GaN can become competitive at the device level under the right conditions. As a result, bulk GaN wins in laser diodes, but it must race to become relevant in LEDs and power electronics by boosting yield and performance enough to make devices cost competitive.

Winning the Jump Ball: Sorting Winners from Losers in LEDs and Power Electronics

Devices that enable energy efficiency, like light-emitting diodes (LEDs) and improved power conversion electronics, are being increasingly recognized as a part of the energy solution. Across the overlapping value chains in these domains a slew of developers are working on innovative materials and system architectures, targeting the primary challenges of cost reduction and manufcaturability. However, this developer set is muddled, with disruptive start-ups and me-too companies in the emerging markets stepping on the toes of litigious multinational corporations. It is also characterized by evolving partnerships and rampant acquisitions to aid vertical integration. In this report, we highlight the key developers of LEDs and power electronics materials, modules, and systems, separating those that present investors, partners, and regulators with immense opportunity from those that represent potential pitfalls.

Hype vs. Policy: The Chinese Market for Lithium Batteries

While the consumer electronics market continued to dominate the $5 billion, 19.3 GWh lithium-ion market in China in 2011, emerging applications are where the hype is and where policy is being focused. The markets for electric bikes and electric vehicles are anticipated to grow fast in a few years, although electric vehicles’ progress will be falling behind government’s plans. In the background, policies are going into place to drive lithium-ion battery adoption into historically lead-acid-battery-dominated applications, allowing the winners in this transition to wait out slower-than-expected growth in other applications.

Aiming to address the huge demand of growing aging population and alleviate the burden of healthcare system, the Chinese authority has sown the seeds of next generation of biomedical material applications over its 11th Five-Year Plan. Despite this focus, domestic products currently account for less than 3% of market share although with a revenue growth rate of 15% to 18%, but regulations and financial support are further driving China’s biomedical materials and downstream industry to accelerate rapidly. With accelerated commercialization of lab innovation and industrial consolidation, China’s biomedical industry is set to rank in the top 3 in the world and a global market share of 10% to 15% by 2050. With a broad set of goals in place, a vast number of developers are emerging in specific technology domains, from tissue engineering to drug delivery, to deliver on government goals of improving the welfare of the population and continue China’s economic growth.

Go North: The Path to Performance-Driven Profits in China's Construction Materials Market

China’s construction industry has represented a cornerstone of the country’s economic growth in recent years. While such growth cannot go on in perpetuity, new drivers, regulations, and constraints are emerging to create a very different opportunity, where materials developers can and must play a critical role. Front and center in that are the building thermal envelope materials pivotal in addressing the high heating and cooling component of China’s vast and growing building inventory. China’s demand for building thermal envelope materials from 2012-2015 will be 5,570 million m2, but there is structure to this at the provincial level. For high-performance thermal envelope solutions, climate is the major driver for determining the market prospects, with Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, and Xinjiang being the provincial markets where advanced building thermal envelope solutions make economic sense. Provided appropriate local relationships are established in the locations with greatest need, developers of phase-change materials, vacuum insulation panels, and low-emissivity (low-e) insulating glass are set to parlay these and similar provinces’ predicaments into growth, while aerogel and electrochromic glass developers will be left wanting.

China’s growth represents both a threat and an opportunity for corporations, start-ups, and investors around the globe. While the growth of China’s economy has fueled growth for foreign companies, it has also fueled the emergence of Chinese competitors that compete effectively at home, and increasingly across the globe. Given the complexity of China’s emerging technology company ecosystems, Lux surveyed and analyzed 380 companies by industry, location, holding status, government relationships, intellectual property, ownership structure, and maturity. Clear distinctions exist within and across these characteristics. Companies in energy storage, advanced lighting, emerging electronics, and red-biotechnology industries are more likely to pursue both foreign growth and introduction of foreign capabilities into China. Meanwhile, Chinese companies with strong government relationships tend to actively introduce foreign resources into China, while companies with strong IP status and mature production capacities are more likely to build up foreign connections for both foreign growth and introduction activities. The partnership attitudes of Chinese entities are as diverse as the features that define them, but can be effectively navigated for both threat and opportunity.

From Cost Reductions to Performance Enhancements: Mapping the $27 Billion Photovoltaic Materials Market

In this report we present the size of the materials opportunity provided by crystalline Si, amorphous Si, CIGS and CdTe PV technologies. Based on our detailed cost and demand models we expect the PV materials market to reach $27 billion by 2018. In addition, this report covers materials innovation opportunities, such as conductive backsheets, high performance encapsulants and ITO replacements, that will enable higher margins for materials suppliers, and reduce not only $/W but also $/kWh.

Market Size Update 2013: Return to Equilibrium

The solar photovoltaic (PV) market’s 77% year-on-year explosion as developers rushed to complete installations before scheduled incentive reductions in 2011 foreshadowed a pessemistic 2012. A modest 15% year-on-year growth in 2012 from growth in China and the U.S. while Europe fades could be seen as the beginning of the end. If demand continues to slow and even slide from subsidy cuts in Europe, overcapacity will continue to erode margins, large manufacturers will fall, and solar could become a niche technology. However, installations and market conditions will improve, resulting in 11% CAGR through 2018. Record low prices from gross margins reaching near zero or below have made solar installations competitive in more markets. The U.S., China, Japan, and India will take over where Germany and Italy left off, driving global demand from 31 GW in 2012 to 62 GW in 2018. Low prices will also weed out uncompetitive manufacturers as consolidation reduces global capacity. Rising demand and falling capacity will bring the two within 12% of each other in 2015, easing price pressure, returning manufacturers to profitability, and returning the industry to equilibrium.

Universities are innovation power houses that not only publish in academic journals but  also develop IP around technologies that have commercial potential.  Research groups led by academics, such as Martin Green, Harry Atwater, Yi Cui and Martin Stutzmann are developing  commercially viable PV technologies in their labs today that will likely be in the market tomorrow. This report will cover the top global academic groups conducting PV research, evaluating the  commercial potential of technologies they are developing.

Non-active Materials  Opportunities  Beyond Commoditization in the Photovoltaic Industry

Non-active materials, such as EVA for module encapsulation, have become commoditized and the days of STR are gone. However there still remains a range of non-active materials that present an opportunity for  innovation and revenue generation  beyond commoditized  non-active materials. This  report will cover non-active materials opportunities driven by diversified global demand and PV bankability.

Focusing on Materials Innovations for Concentrated Solar Power

Concentrated solar power (CSP) is gaining momentum as it offers storage solutions along with energy generation . U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has  started a dedicated program to make CSP technologies cheaper through materials and systems innovations. This report will cover materials opportunities in CSP  including heat transfer fluids,  heat storage ceramics, high temperature coatings for mirrors and metallurgical materials.

Reaching for the High Fruit: Finding Room for SiC and GaN in the Solar Inverter Market

Inverters’ importance in the solar market has only been emphasized by the oversupply and price pressure that has driven down the cost of components around it. Suppliers are doing their part to reduce costs as well, with incremental improvements in efficiency and component count reduction, but the holy grail for solar inverters is the implementation of wide bandgap semiconductors – specifically, silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN). The performance benefits from both are such that inverter suppliers could charge a premium price and still achieve a significantly lower levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). As devices featuring GaN and SiC hit the market, they’ll hold the biggest competitive advantage in small systems – microinverters and small string inverters, for residential and commercial solar installations – with a powerful proposition: increasing margins on electricity sold through leases and power purchase agreements (PPAs).

Market Size Update 2013: Return to Equilibrium

The solar photovoltaic (PV) market’s 77% year-on-year explosion as developers rushed to complete installations before scheduled incentive reductions in 2011 foreshadowed a pessemistic 2012. A modest 15% year-on-year growth in 2012 from growth in China and the U.S. while Europe fades could be seen as the beginning of the end. If demand continues to slow and even slide from subsidy cuts in Europe, overcapacity will continue to erode margins, large manufacturers will fall, and solar could become a niche technology. However, installations and market conditions will improve, resulting in 11% CAGR through 2018. Record low prices from gross margins reaching near zero or below have made solar installations competitive in more markets. The U.S., China, Japan, and India will take over where Germany and Italy left off, driving global demand from 31 GW in 2012 to 62 GW in 2018. Low prices will also weed out uncompetitive manufacturers as consolidation reduces global capacity. Rising demand and falling capacity will bring the two within 12% of each other in 2015, easing price pressure, returning manufacturers to profitability, and returning the industry to equilibrium.

Batteries Included: Solar and Storage’s Efforts for Joint Success

With solar adoption steadily rising – particularly on a distributed level – and the cost of advanced batteries decreasing, the notion of storage coupled with solar has revived solar’s evangelists from the doldrums after a year of incentive reductions, particularly in Europe. This report examines the complex, growing partnership landscape between solar and storage providers, and evaluates the economics of bundling the two technologies in various geographies.

Bending the Rules: The Value of Flexibility and Lightweight Solar

Flexible, lightweight, thin-film modules have been present in the solar market for years – and have struggled to experience success outside of a few, niche applications, due to high prices and low bankability. But as uncompetitive suppliers are shaken out of the industry, those remaining are insistent that flexibility and lightweighting will become commonplace. This report examines the claimed long-term drivers and competitive advantages for those modules, and the resulting market size and potential for premium pricing.

Solar Installation Cost Breakdown

Market oversupply and materials cost reductions in key markets have exerted significant pressure on solar module and inverter prices; further, intense competition and incentive reductions are pressuring total system costs. This report examines the breakdown of total system costs with a focus on balance of systems, and how new drivers like increased system voltages, power optimizers/optimized junction boxes, and permitting cost reductions will affect them going forward.

Finding the Perfect Partner in the Global Grid Storage Market

In the congealing global grid storage market,technology developers seek high-profile corporate partners to develop and market their wares while multi-national conglomerates target start-ups to access innovative IP at bargain prices. The 877 organizations and 949 strategic relationships that makeup the grid storage partnership network have evolved from a scatter plot of islanded developers into a spiderweb of interrelated partnerships. Weeding out the organizations with high potential from those without is essential to finding the right partner to improve technological performance and expand into new market segments. We used the Lux Innovation Grid technology value and business execution scores to extract top partnership prospects for the myriad suitors in the global grid storage network to highlight unique opportunities for strategic and prosperous long-term relationships.

Batteries Included: Solar and Storage’s Efforts for Joint Success

With solar adoption steadily rising – particularly on a distributed level – and the cost of advanced batteries decreasing, the notion of storage coupled with solar has revived solar’s evangelists from the doldrums after a year of incentive reductions, particularly in Europe. This report examines the complex, growing partnership landscape between solar and storage providers, and evaluates the economics of bundling the two technologies in various geographies.

Lux Innovation Grid – the next 10 years

This report will plot energy storage technology developers on the Lux Innovation Grid to evaluate the companies with the most advanced technology and business execution to achieve commercial success.

Microgrid architects and applications

While many technology developers are targeting hard-to-access utility grid storage markets, microgrids are emerging rapidly as a cost-effective, energy efficient platform by which energy storage can be paired with solar, wind, and diesel electricity generation to increase overall system performance and reliability. We will evaluate the key regions, applications, and technologies that will be used to sprout microgrids across the rural landscape.

Beyond Lithium-Ion: A Roadmap for Next-Generation Batteries

The lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery market is now worth more than $10 billion. Stakeholders range from materials manufacturers to car makers, and they are all deeply vested in this technology. However, around the periphery, there are claims of revolutionary next-generation technologies: Exotic architectures such as lithium-air, lithium-sulfur, solid-state, and zinc-air batteries are being hyped as packing up to 10 times the energy density of Li-ion, or more. In this report we dispel exaggerations, identify obstacles, and use our proprietary model to build a next-generation energy storage roadmap. We find that adoption will be application-dependent, and staggered: Military uses will provide the entry point for next-generation batteries around 2020, and consumer electronics will see strong solid-state battery usage by 2030, but advancing Li-ion will prove very tough to displace in transportation.

Assessing the opportunity for energy storage in mobile applications

Batteries, fuel cells, and supercapacitors are changing the face of mobility and connectivity. Transportation and electronics applications increasingly rely on  these emerging technologies, seeking ways to variously reduce fuel consumption, and extend vehicle range and device lifetime. This report will provide the current market size in mobile applications for emerging batteries, fuel cells, and supercapacitors, and forecast future adoption based on the evolution of performance and cost for these technologies.

Cutting the cord: Finding opportunity for energy harvesting in a wireless world

Connectivity is driving  the need for more efficient, robust, and low cost sources of energy. Applications ranging from automotive to automation are utilizing wireless sensors to gather information variously to optimize performance, meet regulations, and reduce operating costs, driving desire for efficient energy harvesting. Additionally, harvesting is a holy grail for portable power, including kinetic energy harvesting as a buffer to extend the run time of devices. This report will analyze the current technical and market conditions for harvesting technologies including piezoelectrics, thermoelectrics, and magnetic harvesting devices across various mobile applications, and forecast the opportunity going forward.

Building the device of tomorrow (Jointly with the Printed, Flexible, and Organic Electronics Service)

Devices including smart phones and tablets have created a revolution in how people connect with the world and each other. The device of tomorrow will  see innovation in the user experience, including novel display and haptic technologies. These new loads will also drive innovation in mobile power sources, with potential options in batteries, supercapacitors, fuel cells, and energy harvesting.  This report will assess which technologies these devices will adopt, the roadmap to get there, and which will be left on the sidelines.

Shale Takes on Automotive: The Future of Natural Gas Vehicles

Cheap natural gas is disrupting the chemical and energy production markets, and impact on the transportation fuel space has been minimal. Gas-to-liquid (GTL) efforts are ramping, a range of alternative fuel innovators are scaling processes to convert methane, while natural gas vehicles (NGVs) number over 15 million today, replacing 1.5% of the global vehicle fleet. NGVs are currently concentrated in government-driven markets outside the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), like Iran and Pakistan, and here we examine the future of NGVs in key automotive markets: the U.S., Europe, China, India, Brazil, Russia, and Japan. We analyze payback periods and forecast the market in these key regions, and examine the main technical and market factors positioned to accelerate or decelerate the market.

Thinking Outside the Biomass: Gas, Waste, and Coal Derived Synfuels

While bio-based fuels grapple with fundamental issues of feedstock economics and availability, other feedstocks like waste, coal, and natural gas are viable options for alternative fuels, all with varying degrees of market penetration today. Which technologies are emerging to provide the cheapest, and most secure, route to new fuels? Which companies and feedstocks are best positioned to profit from this wave of innovation?

Modeling the Cost of Pretreatment

Lignocellulosic biomass represents the next wave of bio-based fuels and chemicals, as the challenges with first generation feedstocks pile up. While the case is strong from lignocellulosic biomass, accessing and converting the feedstock into fermentable sugars is expensive. This report will examine the leading routes to cellulosic sugars, including enzymatic hydrolysis, acid hydrolysis, and other thermochemical reactions like supercritical fluid to pick the winners in the next-generation of alternative fuels and chemicals.

Tomorrow’s Best Technologies in Alternative Fuels

In this report, we will look at early stage technology development to answer the question of what alternative fuels innovation is coming next. Which technologies are aligning the financing, corporate relationships, and research muscle necessary to succeed, and how will these innovations impact the future fuel mix?

Bio-based Chemicals in 2013: Ranking the Developers

A maturing industry of 178 bio-based materials and chemicals developers is conceptualizing and commercializing a growing array of processes and products in eight technology categories: algae, bio-based advanced materials, biocomposites and biopolymers, bioprocessing, cellulosic conversion technologies, crop improvement, and thermochemical conversion of bio-based feedstocks. The statuses of these technologies range from fully commercialized to yet to be proven in the lab, and even companies with promising technologies can be stymied by poor business execution. We used the Lux Innovation Grid to ease identification of potential partners from likely takeover targets.

BBMC Capacity Update

Complete update on the scale and status of bio-based materials intermediates and chemicals. The comprehensive overview will include North America and South America, Europe, Asia, and developments elsewhere. Landscape will include capital invested in plants, capacity in 2011, and projections to 2015, 2010, 2025, and 2035 under three scenarios (reduction in growth, sustained low growth, bio-based boom). Analysis will cover trends by region, feedstock, conversion technology, and relative to existing markets.

Modeling the Cost of Pretreatment

Lignocellulosic biomass represents the next wave of bio-based fuels and chemicals, as the challenges with first generation feedstocks pile up. While the case is strong from lignocellulosic biomass, accessing and converting the feedstock into fermentable sugars is expensive. This report will examine the leading routes to cellulosic sugars, including enzymatic hydrolysis, acid hydrolysis, and other thermochemical reactions like supercritical fluid to pick the winners in the next-generation of alternative fuels and chemicals.

Leading Bio-Based Materials and Chemicals Applications

Focus on applications that are winning the minds and hearts of end-users for having performance attributes above and beyond incumbents, particularly in bio-lubricants, bio-based plasticizers, personal care relevant products, and other bio-based materials and chemicals. Analysis will include an assessment of commercialization success on these applications with lessons to be learned for rolling out applications with other bio-based products.

Of biologics and cells – are formulation and delivery technologies keeping up with the progression?

Whilst 80% of  marketed therapeutics are small molecules; biologic, cell, and gene therapies are increasing in number. In this report we will analyse the specific innovations that enable formulation and delivery of these new entity classes.

Wherefore art thou Capital?

As we start to observe signs of rejuvenation in money going into early stage life-science companies and product development, Lux Research explores the various avenues being pursued and profile activities within the formulation and delivery sector.

Innovation 101: Progress Report

Tracking the top hundred most innovative formulation and delivery companies over the years, Lux Research looks back and plots their progress at a time fraught with numerous external as well as sector-specific challenges.

Innovation Hot Spot Series – Sniffing out early stage promises in Latin America

Sparks often ignite in laboratories, and so do innovative business ideas. While Lux Research continues to bring out innovative companies globally on a regular basis, this report will focus on early stage hotspots in unexpected regions around the globe and how they compare to those further on in development.

The Emerging Diagnostic Landscape in China

Sensor and diagnostic technology development in China is relatively immature, with the current market structure dominated by western companies and multinationals. However, given the tie in to stated goals in the 12th Five Year Plan of improving overall healthcare,especially in rural areas, we observe increasing funding in a number of key sensing and diagnostic research areas. A view of the commercial landscape shows that physical diagnostics leads the way, with some local companies in position to challenge much larger western rivals. We see a wide variety of innovative technologies being developed at the university and research institute levels that at the subject matter level are on par with research being conducted in more developed nations. We predict that in the next 3-5 years biologics-based diagnostics will catch up and offer strong domestic options to today’s imported western technology.

The BioSimilar and BioBetters Revolution: China Leading the Way?

China’s historic position as a cheaper manufacturing base for western biologics has now given it a strong base of know-how to capitalize on the accelerating patent expiration of key biotech molecules.  Will China become the destination for all biosimilar and biobetters manufacturing?  Will they also become the low cost producer of industrial and agro bioproducts?  What is the potential impact on IP portfolios for western biopharmas?  Areas covered in this report will include the landscape and opportunities for biosimilars, biobetters, enzymes, and antibodies.

At the frontier of emerging biotechnologies in China

Around the globe, dynamic developments in technology areas such as genomics, sequencing, epigenetics, stem cells, polymer-to-cellular interfaces, and synthetic biology are impacting multiple industry segments in unforeseen ways.  From petroleum substitution in manufacturing to enhancing crop yield and  vigor to novel biotherapeutics, the biotech industry in China is just getting started.  In this report, Lux surveys the latest developments in China and assesses emerging market opportunities across various industry sectors.

Treatment options for chronic conditions in China: devices vs. pharmaceuticals

With the population aging at an increasing rate, chronic conditions like cardiovascular disease and cancer are receiving greater attention as they become the leading causes of mortality in China. While these conditions pose health threats across the entire population, not all options are equal, especially in rural versus urban settings.   Areas covered in this report will include interventional devices, biopharmaceuticals, and  traditional Chinese medicine.

Getting to Nearly-Zero Energy Buildings: Ambitious Targets, Modest Progress

As global awareness of the impact of building energy consumption on climate change has increased, a number of countries have announced supportive policy measures and mandates for transitioning all new construction to nearly-zero energy. We have surveyed 391 net-zero energy building projects and identified key enabling technologies for both energy conservation and on-site renewable energy generation. In this report we examine the drivers behind the new construction market for nearly-zero and net-zero energy buildings and project the market size over the next five years for building envelope materials in such buildings.

Functional Exterior Coatings to Improve Ambient Air Quality and Thermal Insulation

Innovation grid for technologies such as Photocatalytic Coatings, Cool Roof Coatings, Ceramic oxide Nanoparticle Coatings.

Energy security and environmental concerns are driving adoption of energy efficiency technologies in buildings. Attractive payback periods under five years for smart lighting, daylighting materials,  cool roof coatings and BEMS is drawing in financing companies such as Transcend Equity, Metrus Energy, and Barclays.  A complex web of partnerships between these financing companies, ESCOs, technology providers, utilities and government agencies has emerged, giving rise to new business model. In this report we will examine the nodes of high activity in the network and unearth white spaces.

Rags to Riches: Opportunities in Construction Waste

Punitive policy measures towards landfill waste, volatile commodity prices, and rising consumer desire for sustainability is driving reduce, reuse and recycle. In this report we review technologies such as recycled steel, use of waste materials  in cement/concrete, recyclable carpets, use of recycled polymers in roof tiles. We plot innovative companies on the Lux Innovation Grid.

Spinning the Web: The Case for Building Systems Integration

Modern commercial buildings represent over a century of innovation in systems design. Despite their sophistication, systems such as lighting; heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC); and security often operate in silos. Products now exist that can tie them together, through building systems integration (BSI). This integration leverages “big data” and provides benefits to operations, maintenance, and data acquistion. In this report, we evaluated the value proposition presented by such systems integration. We then ranked nine building types across six metrics in the Lux BSI Suitability Ranking and determined which were the best bets for systems integration.

Measurement and Verification (M&V) of energy savings, generated through building systems retrofits and upgrades, requires special project planning as well as unique engineering practices, elevating it to the level of an art form. Increasingly, M&V also occurs through sophisticated software tools, well outside the reach of conventional players. This report will map the global landscape of technology developers working on M&V solutions and offerings – both software and services –, investigate the new regulatory requirements, and assess the business opportunities for companies operating in the Building and Construction domain.

Energy security and environmental concerns are driving adoption of energy efficiency technologies in buildings. Attractive payback periods under five years for smart lighting, daylighting materials,  cool roof coatings and BEMS is drawing in financing companies such as Transcend Equity, Metrus Energy, and Barclays.  A complex web of partnerships between these financing companies, ESCOs, technology providers, utilities and government agencies has emerged, giving rise to new business model. In this report we will examine the nodes of high activity in the network and unearth white spaces.

Cornering the Buyer’s Market in BEMS Innovations

Since 2000, there has been a proliferation of companies in the BEMS universe – from advanced HVAC component developers, to building sensors and controls firms, to software and services providers. The path to finding the right collaboration partner or investment candidate is thus fraught with peril. To aid clients in making such strategic decisions, we plot innovative venture-backed companies on the Lux Innovation Grid, to separate the leaders from the laggards. This report will provide a toolkit to assess seemingly disparate, early-stage technology developers on an apples-to-apples basis, and make the right pick.

Top Academics and Institutions in Water Research 2013

As water efficiency becomes a priority for countries around the world, well-funded universities and institutes are proliferating. The research arising from these programs will transform the water space, but for a corporation or investor, finding the best university or institute partnerships is often hit or miss. We take the guesswork out of the equation by naming the top universities and institutes worldwide, and profile key thought leaders. To facilitate engagement, we outline best practice for partnering with academic research, and interview top professors on their research and their vision of changes in the water space over the next 15 years.

Wastewater Treatment in Extreme Environments

Industrial wastewater  treatment poses a serious challenge in isolated locations like offshore drilling rigs and remote mining operations. Traditional solutions take a bite out of the bottom line with huge capital costs, expensive hauling, and inconvenient consumables. This report will detail groundbreaking technologies that are transforming remote operations and making clean discharge in extreme environments routine.

Advances in Managing Natural Waters

Intensified water use is driving down natural water quality, driving increasing regional, national, and international regulation, changing the shape of water treatment and monitoring. Companies with critical new technologies to identify pollution sources, monitoring water quality, remediate toxic chemicals, and improve tertiary treatment practices will both drive new regulation and reap the benefits. This report will highlight top opportunities and technologies redefining natural water safety.

Next Generation Membranes

Reverse osmosis and ultrafiltration membranes have rapidly become commodities, threatening  massive business investments and throwing future development into doubt. We will detail the new technologies that will once again add value and differentiation, and the new markets they will pursue as membranes become indispensible for more and more water and industrial processes. We will rank future winners and also-rans on the Lux Innovation Grid.

Using Technology to Drive Improvements in Health, Safety, and Environment

With the energy sector still nursing fresh wounds from heavily publicized environmental accidents, balance sheets are hemorrhaging millions due to the industry’s failure to overcome public health, safety, and environment (HSE) concerns. Even as producers shift to extract resources from increasingly harsh environments, they still aim to meet only the bare minimum standards that will allow their projects to get approved. New technologies can assist industry in improving HSE practices and overcoming public concern, ensuring that global energy needs are met in a safe and sustainable manner.

Diverging world commodity prices are driving producers to transport difficult products, including blended bitumen, gas, and byproducts like petroleum coke and sulfur, to regions where supply is not as abundant. Powerful producers with clout and access to infrastructure are working to take their product further and reap significant profit margins. Floating LNG terminals (FLNG), mobile refineries, and lightweight carbon-fiber pipelines demonstrate the extreme lengths that producers are willing to take to transport their products to better markets. We will assess the storage and transportation market, and analyze the technologies transforming the sector.

Building the Future: Assessing 3D Printing’s Opportunities and Challenges

3D printing has been touted as an enabling platform for applications ranging from personalized medicine to personal drones. However, the specific trajectory it takes – more disruptive than the Internet? A passing fad for hobbyists? – will depend on conquering commercialization challenges. We forecast the future market size of 3D printing and identify business opportunities for would-be industry participants, and assess technology developers in the field on the Lux Innovation Grid to highlight potential partnerships. We project that 3D printing will be an $8.4 billion market in 2025 led by automotive, medical, and aerospace applications. In the longer term, it has potential to reshape the manufacturing ecosystem, but it will have the most impact in the near term for products that are made in small volumes, require high customization, and are more cost-tolerant.

Searching for gems in the self-healing and superhydrophobic coatings space

Due to their self-cleaning and -repairing, anti-microbial, anti-corrosion, anti-icing, and anti-fouling properties, superhydrophobic and self-healing coatings have long garnered the attention of material developers and end users alike. However, despite their myriad potential in a range of target industries, the space is filled with a slew of pretenders, copy-cats, and lurking investment missteps. This report will sort hype from reality in order to assist clients in locating the most attractive technology partners in this dizzyingly dense landscape.

Planning for ripe fruit: Materials innovation lifecycles as a scouting tool

History tells us that we should learn from history. For materials developers, successful commercialized materials of over the years typically incubated from invention to meaningful revenue over a 15 to 25 years, or in some cases longer. Technology scouts and venture capitalists alike in looking for the next big thing often forget that “big” requires more patience than their metrics allow. However, for business development teams, the relative predictability and timeframe can be used as a strategic tool. This report will look at invention to adoption timelines for advanced materials in the current pipeline so functions from early stage technology scouts to business development teams can plan for and target materials for near to long term impact.

Innovations in high performance thermoplastic composites

Historically, the vast majority of advanced composite reinforcement and filler materials – such as carbon fiber, MWNTs and graphene – have utilized epoxy resins. Despite an impressive growth trajectory thus far, thermoset composites are generally limited by processing times, toughness, and high temperature performance, consequently hindering their penetration in many target applications. Innovative thermoplastic composite systems have the potential to remedy many of these shortcomings, yet high costs are often an issue. This report dives into the technology options and business opportunities.

Trojan Horse Partnering: Bringing Materials to Market for Emerging Electronics

Partnering in printed, flexible, and organic electronics is particularly important given the diverse set of new materials and manufacturing processes involved. However, a mostly undefined future application landscape means that companies struggle to engage with downstream players. We conducted a survey among people active in different portions of the supply chain – technology developers, material suppliers, manufacturers, and brand owners/end users – and determined a new partnering strategy that we call “Trojan Horse partnering.” In this model, material suppliers and manufacturers must use partnerships differently – instead of soliciting specs from original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), use technology developer partnerships as a way to penetrate the walls of the electronics brand owners and grow from within these relationships.

Getting touchy feely: emerging technologies impacting human device interaction

While more and more time is spent looking and electronic devices, the feedback has largely remained the same, displays and audio. However, new technologies look to impact the way we experience electronic devices. In addition, the input of information has evolved from keyboards to touchscreens, but is this the end or just a stop on the road to more fully controlling our devices.

Back to school: Looking for innovation in the universities and research institutes

University research can quickly turn into big business, especially in a field like printed, flexible, and organic electronics with its short innovation cycles. In addition, universities can hold the answer to specific technical needs. We will survey the academic landscape for technologies and partners in bringing technologies to market.

Building the device of tomorrow
(Jointly with the Mobile Energy)

Devices including smart phones and tablets have created a revolution in how people connect with the world and each other. The device of tomorrow will  see innovation in the user experience, including novel display and haptic technologies. These new loads will also drive innovation in mobile power sources, with potential options in batteries, supercapacitors, fuel cells, and energy harvesting.  This report will assess which technologies these devices will adopt, the roadmap to get there , and which will be left on the sidelines.

Reaching for the High Fruit: Finding Room for SiC and GaN in the Solar Inverter Market

Inverters’ importance in the solar market has only been emphasized by the oversupply and price pressure that has driven down the cost of components around it. Suppliers are doing their part to reduce costs as well, with incremental improvements in efficiency and component count reduction, but the holy grail for solar inverters is the implementation of wide bandgap semiconductors – specifically, silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN). The performance benefits from both are such that inverter suppliers could charge a premium price and still achieve a significantly lower levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). As devices featuring GaN and SiC hit the market, they’ll hold the biggest competitive advantage in small systems – microinverters and small string inverters, for residential and commercial solar installations – with a powerful proposition: increasing margins on electricity sold through leases and power purchase agreements (PPAs).

LED Market sizing and material technology market sizing

General illumination is set to drive the LED industry forward in the next decade while automotive and retail offer niche, burgeoning opportunities. As the cost of sapphire comes down with increasing substrate diameter, new materials technologies such as bulk GaN, aluminum nitride (AlN), aluminum gallium nitride (AlGaN), and silicon will deliver critical cost savings and improved performance. This report will detail the LED market size by application and provide a detailed breakdown of the potential market size for new materials-based LED technologies.

Power electronics materials market sizing with device specific breakdown

This report will provide an update to the Q1 2012 Power Electronics market size report, taking a deep dive into the market size for different types of discrete devices such as IGBTs, MOSFETs, diodes in different applications. Critical application segments including transportation (hybrids, electric vehicles, heavy transport, and aerospace), the electricity grid (solar, wind, energy storage, and the smart grid), communications (telecom and datacom), buildings (HVAC, elevators, escalators), and industrial (motor control, robotics, automation) will be elucidated and aggregated providing a total potential market growth through 2020.

Game changers in LED technologies

Price of LEDs has been falling dramatically due to the reduction of the die costs- there is also increasing market pressure squeezing margins of LED manufacturers. This report will detail the next generation material and technology innovations that are likely to influence the future of LEDs. Specifically this report will look at new phosphor material technologies, innovations in optics, drivers, thermal management solutions and other materials used to manufacture the die that promise to boost performance output.

Identifying Growth and Threat in China’s Emerging RFID Ecosystem

While government-driven applications were the largest in China’s $454 million, 894 million unit radio frequency identification (RFID) card/tag market in 2012, emerging market-driven applications are forecast to grow at much higher rates in the next five years. By 2017, the Chinese RFID card/tag market volume is forecast to grow to 2.11 billion units, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19%, while revenue is forecast grow to $807 million in 2017, at a CAGR of 12%. Consumer and industry applications are anticipated to lead the way, while agriculture, health care, and utility are rapidly growing niche sectors. In terms of technology, ultra-high frequency (UHF) will replace high frequency (HF) in many application markets in the next five years, fueling the emergence of domestically developed UHF technology and original equipment manufacturer (OEM) business models. With the rise of market-driven applications, there are opportunities for multinationals to leverage China’s RFID growth, but speed and identification of the best local partnerships will be critical.

Chinese market for Biofuel

Biofuels are a key area in the 12th five year plan of China, for which the development depends on biotechnology, feedstocks and value chain logistics. In this regard, challenges and uncertainties still remain in the implementation of government subsidies and completeness of the value chain. The report will split the Chinese biofuel market by feedstock type, and deliver market share analysis for leading biofuel suppliers in China.

Electric Vehicles in China

In response to the slow EV market growth in China, compared with the government’s ambitions plan,  the Chinese government has released strong policies to support the adoption of electric vehicles in China. For example, EVs may get free licenses in cities, such as Shanghai, where people usually need to pay a high license fees when they buy new cars. The report will also look at low-speed electric vehicles, a grey policy area but still a growing market in China. The report will split the market by EV type  (bus, car, low speed EVs) and by technology (pure EV,  hybrid), and estimated the Chinese EV market for each segment in 2012, and forecast to 2016. Relative policies, funding and other support will be discussed and placed in broader context. A market share analysis for major Chinese EV makers will also be  provided.

Bio-based materials and biomanufacturing in China

The report will look at the supply and the demand of bio-based materials and biomanufacturing in China. A list of leading Chinese bio-based material suppliers in terms of revenues will be provided and ranked for technology value, channels to market and overall partnership value.

China’s VC Landscape

An update to the 2011 report on the same topic, this report will split the VC investment deals by industry, by series, and by regions, leveraging numerous interviews with investors active in the country to gauge their strategies for entering and exiting emerging technology investments. As part of the study, a comparison of the investment behavior of the Chinese VC  firms and foreign VC firms will be provided in the report.

The lithium battery market in China

This is the 2nd edition of Lux Research report on the Chinese lithium battery market. The report will look at the Chinese market (both revenues and unit shipments) for each of the major lithium battery  technologies, namely LCO, LMO, LFP and NMC. Detailed analysis will be provided on the penetration of these technologies in each major application sector. These application sectors include electric vehicle, electric bike, consumer electronics (notebook PCs, mobile phones), and grid storage applications. A list of leading lithium battery suppliers and their market shares in the Chinese market will be provided.