BLACK SWANS, UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS, AND HIGH SIGMA EVENTS

PRESENTER : Naveen Krishnamurthy, Director, Consulting at Lux Research

Black swans, unknown unknowns, and high sigma events – how is a technology strategist to respond once a compelling catalyst has arrived? Multiple options and actions are suddenly possible. Each combination of choices and actions takes the enterprise into further realms of uncertainty. Experience tells us that large organizations are not built for continual experimentation and unforgiving feedback loops in the face of continual and/or disruptive change.

We believe the solution involves actively shaping outcomes that frame actions. Our framework calls for a synthesis of many potential outcomes into two distinct post-catalyst worlds – a Utopian World and a Dystopian World.

In this webinar, we describe how a technology strategist can distill what is currently known to create a vision for what is not yet known in Utopian and Dystopian Worlds. We then formulate an approach to draw meaningful implications and themes that fall out as a result of each opposing World. We illustrate how unmet-needs and opportunities rise and fall in each World and the responses that allow for all-in or hedged strategies.

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